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Simon Says: Downed by Illness
A cold that I thought I had finally shook came back with a vengance last week, leading to a very light — and unsuccessful — betting slate:
Straight Betting
Races (Selections): 86 (92)
Wins: 26
Rate: 30.2%
Return: $230.90
ROI: +25.49%
Exotic Wagering
Bet: $1,340
Return: $1,232.00
ROI: -8.06%
This weekend, two marquee races for three-year-olds are on tap—the Grade III Gotham at Aqueduct and the Grade II Louisiana Derby at Fair Grounds. Below, I take a peek at the Gotham:
AQUEDUCT * Race 9 (73%) * $250,000 Purse * 8.5 Furlongs * Dirt
1-Giant Moon (7/2)
Fair Odds: 3-1
Likely favorite has had things mostly his own way against small fields with moderate early speed. He’s clearly talented but, given some of the early foot in here, he’s going to have to run harder than ever before to win — insist on a decent price.
2-Laysh Laysh Laysh (15/1)
Fair Odds: 15-1
Despite the sprint breeding, this one stands a puncher’s chance in here. Since claimed by trainer David Jacobson, Laysh Laysh Laysh has won two of four starts and placed in the other two. In his latest, he posted a race-best 96 Beyer despite having to steady in the stretch.
3-Roman Emperor (6/1)
Fair Odds: 7-2
Roman Emperor was the 2-1 favorite the last time he squared off against rival Giant Moon and ran evenly. Since then, he finished second in the Whirlaway, keeping his string of improving Beyer speed figures intact, while also earning a career-best –4 Late Speed Ration (LSR). A son of Empire Maker (the horse who thwarted Funny Cide’s Triple Crown bid), Roman Emperor is bred to run all day and should be in good striking position early in a race that could produce some blistering splits.
4-Saratoga Russell (4/1)
Fair Odds: 6-1
Son of Trippi has a ton of speed, but I’m dubious about the stretch out in distance at this point. Yes, the Dosage number (1.67) bodes well, but the LSRs (-15, -6 and –11) don’t exactly inspire, nor does trainer Richard Violette’s seven percent rate with previous runners moving from a sprint to a route. At 4-1 on the morning line, I’m looking elsewhere.
5-Southern Terminus (8/1)
Fair Odds: 8-1
Lack of experience hurts this promising Todd Pletcher trainee. Last race against eventual Sam F. Davis winner, Fierce Wind, was OK but he’ll need to improve greatly to compete here. The fact that regular rider John Velazquez elected to stay in Florida doesn’t help the cause.
6-Holidaze (15/1)
Fair Odds: 15-1
Harlan’s Holiday progeny is improving, but not enough to have an impact here.
7-Texas Wildcatter (12/1)
Fair Odds: 12-1
Dons the blinkers for trainer Todd Pletcher after a very encouraging showing behind Roman Emperor. Clearly one of Pletcher’s “benchwarmers,” but one that could have an impact here.
8-Larrys Revenge (15/1)
Fair Odds: 25-1
Dam sire is Carson City, poor LSRs, poor post position… poor bet.
10-Visionaire (3/1)
Fair Odds: 9-2
Son of Grand Slam earned a super +1 LSR last time behind Pyro in the Grade III Risen Star but, unlike his more acclaimed rival, this one raced near a dawdling pace. True, his versatility is a plus but the price figures to be short and he’s got a lot more to prove this time around.
BET(S): WIN on 3 (at odds of 7-2 or greater). EXACTA 2,3 with 2,3,7.
