Red Hot on Super Saturday
The SimonSays Simulcast Report correctly identified the winners of two of the three big races for three-year-olds on Saturday, including $33.80 winner Recapturetheglory in the Illinois Derby. Below is some of the analysis from Saturday’s report along with updated overall betting statistics:
THE WOOD MEMORIAL
AQUEDUCT * Race 9 (48%) * $750,000 Purse * 9.0 Furlongs * Dirt
COMMENTS: Hard to figure why FIRST COMMANDMENT, an impressive winner of a N1X allowance race last time, is 30-1 on the morning line in this spot. Sure this is a big jump, especially considering his latest effort was restricted to NY breds. That said, the Carlos Martin trainee earned a 90 Beyer figure and –4 Late Speed Ration (LSR) in that 4 ¼-length score — good enough to at least be competitive against these. The Tampa Bay Derby was ugly, but trainer Nick Zito has already made it clear that his onetime Kentucky Derby favorite, WAR PASS, will play a game of catch-me-if-you-can from here on out. Without a lot of natural speed signed up, it will be up to the trainers and jockeys to decide the early fractions — and possibly the outcome of the race. After all, War Pass is still undefeated when he’s had the lead at the first call. TALE OF EKATI made a couple of runs into fast splits in the Louisiana Derby in his 2008 debut and could certainly move forward off of that effort.
BET(S): WIN on 4 & 8. EXACTA 5 with 2,3,4,8.
RESULT: 8 ($19.00 $6.30 $3.60) 5 ($3.70 $2.60) 1 ($2.40)
ILLINOIS DERBY
HAWTHORNE * Race 7 (45%) * $500,000 Purse * 9.0 Furlongs * Dirt
COMMENTS: Tough race to call, given the pace situation. While Golden Spikes has been showing the most early foot, his staying power is questionable and the pace could be on the slow side. DENIS OF CORK is the logical favorite but is not likely to get the kind of setup he did at Oaklaen Park, where the early pace figure in his latest was a ridiculous –19 (ESR). If a soft pace does materialize, RECAPTURETHEGLORY figures to be in a good spot turning for home and may have the ability to take advantage. His run two back at Churchill Downs would be good enough to win this. If Z HUMOR is back on the pace today, he’ll be a big threat.
BET(S): WIN on 1 (at odds of 9-2 or greater).
RESULT: 1 ($33.80 $15.60 $10.00) 6 ($6.80 $5.40) 3 ($4.80)
SANTA ANITA DERBY
SANTA ANITA PARK * Race 6 (50%) * $750,000 Purse * 9.0 Furlongs * Dirt
COMMENTS: BOB BLACK JACK was very impressive in his latest, battling gamely after being headed in the stretch. Although he is bred to sprint, he might be on another slow pace in this one and any improvement could see him on top. EL GATO MALO raced off an extremely slow pace in his latest, yet still showed a lot of heart down the lane, as he was getting to Colonel John in the closing stages. COLONEL JOHN might get a repeat of the soft pace situation that led to his victory in the Grade III Sham.
BET(S): WIN on 4 (at odds of 9-2 or greater).
RESULT: 5 ($7.20 $4.00 $3.20) 4 ($7.20 $5.40) 3 ($7.80)
Straight Betting
Races (Selections): 111 (117)
Wins: 33
Rate: 29.7%
Return: $311.70
ROI: +33.21%
Exotic Wagering
Bet: $1,472
Return: $1,331.80
ROI: -9.52%
Note: Statistics reflect all recommended plays from 1/25/08 to 4/5/08.
