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Pace Makes the Race
If Big Brown wins the Triple Crown, he will do so after recording the worst Preakness LSR since Seattle Slew.
Year Name (LSR in Preakness)
1973 Secretariat (-4*)
1977 Seattle Slew (-10)
1978 Affirmed (-2)
2008 Big Brown (-9)
*There is a dispute as to how fast Secretariat actually ran in his Preakness victory. The official time was 1:55, yet the Pimlico clocker that day claimed Big Red had crossed the finish line in 1:54 2/5, while two Daily Racing Form clockers timed the event in 1:53 2/5. The LSR above is based on the 1:54 2/5 finishing time.
Fun Fact: The best recent LSR by a Preakness winner was -5, earned by Point Given in 2001. Point Given went on to destroy his Belmont foes by 12 ¼ lengths while posting the fourth fastest time in the history of the race.
For a full explanation of LSRs, ESRs and to read the rest of this column, visit:
http://horseracing.sportsline.com/cbs/newsletter/default.aspx?id=19.
Going Back to Ohio
Saturday’s Grade II Ohio Derby drew an interesting field of 8, headed by the Steve Asmussen-trained Z Fortune. The 5-2 morning line favorite, Z Fortune is attempting to rebound from a troubled 10th-place finish in the Kentucky Derby. Hoping to keep Z Fortune out of the winner’s circle are the lightly-raced Cherokee Artist and Instill. My full analysis follows below:
THISTLEDOWN * Race 9 (29%) * $300,000 Purse * 9.0 Furlongs * Dirt
8-Cherokee Artist (12/1)
Fair Odds: 7-2
7-Z Fortune (5/2)
Fair Odds: 3-1
4-Instill (8/1)
Fair Odds: 6-1
COMMENTS: The buzz is that CHEROKEE ARTIST can run a little bit and he certainly didn’t disappoint his supporters on Kentucky Derby day, when he broke his maiden by 2 ¼ lengths while earning a 93 Beyer figure and –6 late speed ration (LSR). He should get first run on a host of early speedsters in this affair and the price figures to be right. Z Fortune is better than his Kentucky Derby run (or lack thereof) indicates and he should run well in this spot. His connections are terrible, but INSTILL has improved in each start since his woeful try in the John Battaglia Memorial at Turfway Park on March 1. In his last, he outgamed the tough veteran campaigner Stonehouse to win by a neck, earning a 101 Beyer and –8 LSR; definite upset chance.
BET(S): WIN on 8 (at odds of 7-2 or greater). WIN on 4 (at odds of 6-1 or greater). EXACTA BOX 4,7,8.
Note: All selections (unless otherwise noted) are made in light of the conditions existing at the time of entry. Races taken off the turf, or modified in any way, should be passed.
