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At the Gate -- Saturday
June 28, 2008
By Mike Dempsey VegasInsider.com
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I somehow managed to turn a profit with my top picks at both Belmont Park and Churchill Downs on Friday, but it was not easy.
At Belmont Park I had three winners on top, producing a +51% +ROI for the day. Pick 3 players had to be happy as I listed all nine winners including Milk Run ($28.80) in the sixth race. If you used my top two picks in the Pick 3 in the sixth through eighth race, you scored for $1,408.00 on a $2 ticket.
But exactas and trifectas were very hard to find on the day, which was very frustrating for my bankroll and myself.
At Churchill Downs, it was a very frustrating day early on. I failed to even list the winner in races four through seven, and my bankroll was a race or two from having to go on the respirator.
We knocked down the exacta in the tenth for $44.80 and Senorita’s Secret got home as my top pick in the finale, paying $29.00. The late double paid $191.80, saving me from a really lousy day.
The late rally ended with my top picks in the black to the tune of a +83% +ROI, but it sure felt ugly getting there.
It’s one of those days where my top picks show a profit, but it really was misleading. I don’t feel I really had a very good day despite the lucky late fortune.
It has been a very solid month overall, and hopefully we will continue being in the black today, as there are good betting cards on tap at both Belmont Park and Churchill Downs today.
To purchase my full card reports for Churchill Downs and Belmont Park that includes analysis, selections, fair odds, recommendations for today click here.
Here is today's opener from Churchill Downs to get our day off to a good start:
CD Race 1 Md Sp Wt (1:15 et) #5 Tomisue's Cat #3 Skymynx #1 Splendorella #2 Fair Rose
Analysis: #5 Tomisue's Cat has a very appealing pedigree, by Storm Cat out of the stakes winner Tomisue's Delight ($1.2 million) but she certainly has not run to it, beaten double digit lengths in both starts. She did catch a highly graded race last out that produced three next out winners. Her debut came on turf and last out she did not take to poly. Perhaps the first go on dirt may wake this gal up, and if the rains come that would be an added bonus as she is bred top and bottom to handle a wet track.
#3 Skymynx has checked in third in her last two starts, last out beaten six lengths as the fav. She tries two turns for the first time and has enough pedigree to handle the stretch out and catches a field void of much early pace. Barn is 17% winners moving runners from sprint to route and picks up red hot jock in Theriot. Will be tough if she shakes clear early.
Wagering WIN: #5 to win at 3/1 or better. EX: 3,5 / 1,3,5 TRI: no play
Today’s Featured Race From Belmont Park:
BEL Race 9 Suburban Hcp G1 (5:15 et) #8 Merchant Marine 5/1 #5 Rising Moon 7/2 #1 A.P. Arrow 5/2 #6 Harlington 9/2
Analysis: #8 Merchant Marine tracked the early pace and finished gamely to win the Yankee Victor last out and looks primed for a top effort here in his third start of his current form cycle. Tough to go from a small stake to a G1 but this race came up more like a G3. The gelding is a perfect 4 for 4 over the main track here and has plenty of pedigree to handle 1 1/4 miles, by Tiznow out of a Gone West mare.
#5 Rising Moon beat Alw-3 optional claimers last out in his first go off a year layoff. The five year old earned a career top two back last May winning the Wagon Limit going 1 1/2 miles. Dutrow is 28% winners with horses making their second start off a +180 day layoff. #1 A.P. Arrow makes his first start since a fourth place finish in the Dubai World Cup, beaten 8 3/4 lengths by Curlin for the win. This guy will likely never have a better spot to finally win a G1, his current record in G1's standing at 0 for 6. Just thinking this guy is going to get way too much attention at the windows.
Wagering WIN: #8 to win at 7/2 or better. EX: 5,8 / 1,5,6,8 TRI: 5,8 / 1,5,6,8 / 1,2,5,6,8
Today’s Featured Race From Churchill Downs:
CD Race 9 OClm $80,000N$Y (5:21 et) #5 Kindling #9 Almonsoon #3 Lady Carlock #2 Patricia
Analysis: #5 Kindling is better than she showed last out when shipping to Arlington and checking in fifth on poly. Three back she put in a good effort in a close up third in the Giants Causeway going 5 1/2 furlongs at Keeneland. She has not been a route of ground on turf since shipping to Minnesota to check in third in a $45K stake at Canterbury. She has a habit of landing for minor shares but does drop out of stakes company and perhaps the stretch out will suit. Worth a look if we see close to the 8/1 ML.
#9 Almonsoon checked in third last out versus similar and makes her third start of her current form cycle. She only has one win on turf but has been competitive in stake company including a second in the G3 Orchid at Gulfstream. She is a half to Geri ($1.7 million) and A.P. Arrow ($1.4 million).
Wagering WIN: #5 to win at 9/2 or better. EX: 5,9 / 2,3,5,9 TRI: 5,9 / 2,3,5,9 / 2,3,4,5,7,9
Live Longshots: These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their trifecta and superfecta wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win-place wager.
Belmont Park R1: #2 Blacksmith Bob 12/1 R2: #6 Silver Success 10/1 R2: #5 Midnight Clear 10/1 R3: #6 Go Go Bear 20/1 R4: #9 Chauvinist 20/1 R5: #9 Karakorum Katie 12/1 R6: #5 Zip by You 10/1 R7: #7 Wesley 8/1 R8: #1 Hamsa 10/1 R10: #0 Osceola Prince 8/1
Churchill Downs R2: #4 Podgy 8/1 R6: #1 Rockin Rose 10/1 R9: #5 Kindling 8/1 R11: #4 Callie’s Wright 10/1 R11: #3 Cold Humor 10/1
Good luck today!
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