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At the Gate -- Thursday
July 3, 2008
By Mike Dempsey VegasInsider.com
For all your horse wagering needs, be sure to visit allhorseracing.com!
W e started off the week in pretty good shape on Wednesday, producing a profit with my top picks at both tracks.
At Churchill Downs I had four winners on top on the nine race card, good for a +56% +ROI for the day.
Belmont Park, I had three winners on top on the nine race card, good for a modest +13% +ROI with my top picks.
We ended up the day at Churchill in the nightcap by laying out the race perfectly. Well almost.
I had it 4-5-6-10 and that is exactly the way it came in. The exacta paid $20.80 and the trifecta returned $73.40. If you were wondering what the superfecta paid for hitting it straight, we got nothing.
There is no super in the finale, only the Super High Five. That payoff was $1,002.30, but I did not have the fifth place finisher listed among my contenders, so I sure cannot take credit for hitting it.
And no, I did not hit it myself, as I only played the exacta and trifecta on the race.
There is a late post time at Churchill Downs today, the eleven race card kicking off at 2:45 ET. Belmont Park has a regular post time of 1:00 ET today.
To purchase my full card reports for Churchill Downs and Belmont Park that includes analysis, selections, fair odds, recommendations for today click here.
Here is today's opener from Churchill Downs to get our day off to a good start:
CD Race 1 Md $80,000 (2:45 et) #2 Delilah's Seven 5/2 #4 Satan's Plume 2/1 #3 Laca 3/1 #6 Queen of Dreams 7/2
Analysis: #2 Delilah's Seven broke slowly and found herself far back early and made a good late run to finish fourth in her debut. Two have exited that race to run back, one next out winner. Wilkes usually does not have them fully cranked first time out and hits at a 19% clip (with a +ROI) with second timers. The filly is by Sky Mesa out of the stakes winner One O Seven ($178K), who has dropped one other foal to race, Keene Road ($48K).
#4 Satan's Plume earned the top last out speed fig in a runner up finish, exiting the same race as our top pick. She has turned the corner in her last two starts since Brothers dropped her in for a tag. Logical contender in this short field.
Wagering WIN: #2 to win at 9/5 or better. EX: 2,4 / 2,3,4 TRI: no play
Today’s Featured Race From Belmont Park
BEL Race 7 OClm $25,000N2X (4:12 et) #7 Benlayla 9/2 #5 Morning Perks 3/1 #8 Tergesti 4/1 #3 Dr. D. F. C. 10/1
Analysis: #7 Benlayla stretches out to a mile after making a mild late run to finish third last out going 6 1/2 furlongs at this condition. The gelding caught a main track that was more favorable to speed that day. Last three speed figs are a good fit and the one turn mile looks like the right distance for this guy.
#5 Morning Perks also stretches out from a sprint, the five year old checking in a non threatening sixth last out in NY bred stakes company. Barn is having a solid meet and is 20% winners overall moving runners from sprint to route.
Wagering WIN: #7 to win at 3/1 or better. EX: 5,7 / 3,5,7,8 TRI: 5,7 / 3,5,7,8 / 3,5,7,8,9
Today’s Featured Race From Churchill Downs
CD Race 9 OClm $80,000N$Y (6:59 et) #4 Star Plus 9/2 #3 Wise River 6/1 #7 Master Mizzen 2/1 #1 Vanquisher 5/1
Analysis: #4 Star Plus is making his U.S. debut here for red hot McPeek barn that is 30% winners (with a +ROI) with horses coming back off a +180 day layoff. The five year old is a G1 winner in Argentina and was very consistent, landing in the exacta in 10 of his 14 career starts. The tote may give us a clue on how good this guy is, just tough to discount anything this barn sends out recently.
#3 Wise River was a good second last out behind A.P. Xcellent, who missed wining the G1 Hollywood Gold Cup last June by a nose to Lava Man. Theriot departs to ride #5 Petion Station but we get a capable replacement in Borel.
Wagering WIN: #4 to win at 7/2 or better. EX: 3,4 / 1,3,4,7 TRI: 3,4 / 1,3,4,7 / 1,2,3,4,7
Live Longshots: These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their trifecta and superfecta wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win-place wager.
Belmont Park R2: #7 Gadda Da Vida 8/1 R2: #4 Fast Tigress 8/1 R3: #4 Call Tiger 8/1 R6: #4 Perfect Pussycat 10/1 R7: #3 Dr. D.F.C. 10/1 R8: #5 My Anna Rose 20/1 R8: #7 Indian Delight 12/1 R9: #9 Forward Press 8/1 R9: #3 Look Now 12/1
Churchill Downs R3: #5 Scorpion Go North 8/1 R4: #7 Ventry 15/1 R4: #1 Smokin’ Legend 8/1 R7: #6 Ide Be the One 15/1 R10: #3 Geste 10/1 R11: #4 Halton 8/1 R11: #11 Church Cat 10/1 R11: #12 Private Gentleman 8/1
Good luck today!
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