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At the Gate -- Sunday
July 6, 2008
By Mike Dempsey VegasInsider.com
For all your horse racing needs, be sure to visit allhorseracing.com!
I t is closing day at Churchill Downs on Sunday, an eleven race card on tap. The closing day feature is the $150,000 Locust Grove Handicap (G3) for fillies and mares, three year olds and upward.
Bayou’s Lassie is the morning line favorite and we’ll try to beat her with the second choice on the morning line, the Kiaran McLaughlin trained Genuine Devotion.
Racing at Churchill Downs has been kind to the bankroll over the past month, and continued on Saturday. I had four winners on top, producing a +34% +ROI.
On Thursday, it appeared there would not be any racing in Kentucky for the rest of the summer after Ellis Park owner Ron Geary announced the track would be closed. An agreement on the revenue share with the Kentucky HBPA could not reached. The track was scheduled to open on Friday.
A deal with the horsemen was struck on Saturday afternoon, and Ellis Park will open next Friday.
The horsemen were looking for a 1/3 split in the revenue from account wagering services and will have to settle for 6%, up from 2.5% last year.
Churchill Downs never did come to an agreement with horsemen, and many horseplayers with online wagering accounts were shut out, including Twinspires, which is owned by Churchill Downs.
Talk about confusing horseplayers.
As of right now, there are no ADW issues with Saratoga, which opens on July 23. That’s when summer truly starts for me.
To purchase my full card reports for Churchill Downs and Belmont Park that includes analysis, selections, fair odds, recommendations for today click here.
Here is today's opener from Churchill Downs to get our day off to a good start:
CD Race 1 Md $15,000 (1:15 et) #12 Circuit Tap 12/1 #9 Zakedor 3/1 #11 Last Tram 5/1 #13 Gandolph Finch 5/1
Analysis: #12 Circuit Tap stretched out to two turns last out for his second career start and checked in a non threatening third after racing down along a dead rail much of the trip. He was beaten double-digit lengths in both starts and now cuts back to a one-turn mile. The barn has been going very well at the meet, hitting at a 38% clip and the colt catches a below average group here. Could wake up third time out and the 12/1 ML makes him worth a good look here in the opener.
#9 Zakedor owns a solid pace profile throughout and stretches out to a mile off a third place finish last out. Two back this guy missed earning his diploma by a nose and a neck when third. The gelding is a half to five winners including stakes winner Zakocity ($775K). Amoss having a strong meet (39% winners) and is 25% winners moving runners from sprint to route.
Wagering WIN: #12 to win at 9/2 or better. EX: 9,12 / 9,11,12,13 TRI: 9,12 / 9,11,12,13 / 3,9,10,11,12,13
Today’s Featured Race From Belmont Park:
BEL Race 8 Thunder Puddles S. (4:43 et) #5 Pennington 5/1 #8 Banrock 3/1 #4 Hammock 9/2 #1 Retribution 10/1
Analysis: #5 Pennington is coming off a win in open Alw-1 company where the gelding overcame having to steady on the turn and was checked in traffic approaching the stretch. The gelding looks capable of handling the stretch out and returns to the NY bred ranks here to try stakes company. This gelding appears to be getting real good right now.
#8 Banrock prompted the early pace and tired in the stretch to finish sixth in the Academy Award here trying to get 1 1/4 miles. The gelding was a game winner two back in the Kingston and handle yielding turf in that outing and we should have some give to the ground here today if we stick on the grass. Returns to the state bred ranks and cuts back in distance.
Wagering WIN: #5 to win at 3/1 or better. EX: 5,8 / 1,4,5,8 TRI: 5,8 / 1,4,5,8 / 1,2,4,5,8,10
Today’s Featured Race From Churchill Downs:
CD Race 9 Locust Grover Hcp G3 (5:21 et) #1 Genuine Devotion 7/2 #5 Bayou's Lassie 5/2 #10 Say You Will 5/1 #2 Brownie Points 5/1
Analysis: #1 Genuine Devotion came off a seven-month layoff with a sharp win over soft going at Belmont in the $79K Upper Noosh going six furlongs. She has won three in a row, her last pair earning triple digit Beyers. She certainly has enough pedigree to handle the stretch out to a mile, by the "Rock" out of a Black Tie Affair mare. Barn is 27% winners (with a +ROI) moving runners from sprint to route.
#5 Bayou's Lassie set the early fractions and weakened to finish fourth last out in the G1 Just a Game, beaten 1 3/4 lengths for the top spot. The runner up in that race was Lady of Venice, who went Saturday in the Cash Call Mile at Hollywood Park. Two back she went gate to wire to out foot Dreaming of Anna, who came back to win the G3 Mint Julep in her next start. The Romans mare earned a career top two back winning in her lone go over the turf course here.
Wagering WIN: #1 to win at 5/2 or better. EX: 1,5 / 1,2,5,10 TRI: 1,5 / 1,2,5,10 / 1,2,5,6,9,10
Live Longshots: These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their trifecta and superfecta wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win-place wager.
Belmont Park R1: #2 Miss Freud 12/1 R2: #5 New York Style 15/1 R4: #5 Phi Beta Mom 8/1 R5: #7 Fiumes 10/1 R6: #6 Trippi Dance 10/1 R6: #7 Bad Streak 8/1 R7: #6 Screen to Screen 12/1 R8: #1 Retribution 10/1 R10: #10 Intoxicatingbeauty 10/1
Churchill Downs R1: #12 Circuit Tap 12/1 R2: #4 Pershing 8/1 R3: #3 Silvie’s Lullaby 10/1 R4: #7 Dan McGrew 12/1 R7: #12 Mo Cusie 10/1 R8: #1 Art and Soul 12/1 R10: #9 Pinpoint 8/1 R11: #2 El Aleman 8/1 R11: #8 Peace Mon 8/1
Good luck today!
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