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The Big Brown Effect
With Big Brown set to make his return to the races on Sunday, it is interesting that another Horse of the Year candidate — the undefeated filly Zenyatta — figures to rule a heavy favorite in the Grade II Clement L. Hirsch Handicap at Del Mar on Saturday.
Interesting because, like Big Brown in the Belmont Stakes, Zenyatta appears vulnerable.
Yes, Zenyatta has been prepared better than Brown was and, true, she is racing at a distance she’s won at before and over a familiar surface — but the speed and pace figure regression in her last race sure looks familiar, doesn’t it?
After posting a 103 Beyer speed rating and outstanding +2 late speed ration (LSR) in the Milady Handicap on May 31, Zenyatta managed just a 97 Beyer and -14 LSR in the Vanity on July 5. Big Brown, you might recall, demonstrated a similar figure free fall at Pimlico, where his 100 Beyer and -9 LSR in the Preakness represented a significant decline from the 109 Beyer and -4 LSR he earned while winning the 134th Kentucky Derby.
Even more alarming for Zenyatta, however, is the fact that she was all out to win her latest start, while Big Brown was on cruise control in Maryland.
If trainer John Shirreffs’ amazon filly is to be beaten on Saturday, two relatively untested foes look most likely to turn the trick — Abergwaun Farm’s Model or WinStar Farms’ West Coast Swing.
Model just won an optional claiming event at Del Mar, while garnering an 89 Beyer and -2 LSR, while West Coast Swing has won four of five lifetime starts and appears to be a star in the making. Last year, the Gone West filly annexed the Prairie Meadows Oaks with a 96 Beyer and -4 LSR and then, in her 2008 debut on June 21, West Coast Swing crushed a field of optional claimers by 6¼ lengths, while earning a 94 Beyer and -5 LSR.
Saturday’s Free Picks
All selections (unless otherwise noted) are made in light of the conditions existing at the time of entry. Races taken off the turf, or modified in any way, should be passed.
DEL MAR * RACE 9 (100%) * $300,000 Purse * 8.5 Furlongs * Dirt
4-West Coast Swing (10/1)
Fair Odds: 9-2
8-Zenyatta (3/5)
Fair Odds: 1-1
2-Model (30/1)
Fair Odds: 15-1
COMMENTS: WEST COAST SWING could be any kind and looks to have the best chance of dethroning the queen if that one is not at her best. ZENYATTA is clearly talented, but her last race left much to be desired—worth taking a stand against at what will likely be a ridiculously low price. MODEL has been worse than third just once in nine races; gets tested for class.
BET(S): WIN on 4 (at odds of 9-2 or greater). SHOW on 2 & 4.
CANTERBURY PARK * Race 3 (41%) * $50,000 Purse * 8.5 Furlongs * Dirt
3-House Of Usher (12/1)
Fair Odds: 9-2
2-Antrim County (3/1)
Fair Odds: 3-1
8-Hopetown Hero (12/1)
Fair Odds: 8-1
COMMENTS: Trainer Chris Richard wins at an excellent 33 percent clip with horses coming off of a victory, as is the case with HOUSE OF USHER in this event. A four-year-old son of Chester House, House of Usher is in terrific form, having just won his last race by five lengths while earning an 86 Beyer speed figure and -5 late speed ration (LSR). ANTRIM COUNTY was stuck behind a slow pace last time, yet still earned an 88 Beyer and -2 LSR — clearly the one to beat. HOPETOWN HERO will likely be the one to catch.
BET(S): WIN on 3 (at odds of 9-2 or greater). EXACTA 2,3 with 2,3,8,9.
CANTERBURY PARK * Race 4 (18%) * $75,000 Purse * 6.0 Furlongs * Dirt
1-Moonlight Dreamer (4/1)
Fair Odds: 5-2
5-Quick Sale (2/1)
Fair Odds: 3-1
2-Morghyn (9/5)
Fair Odds: 7-2
COMMENTS: MOONLIGHT DREAMER could shake loose early against this group and, although she’s inconsistent, her best is good enough to win. QUICK SALE goes for Scott Lake, who’s done well in previous Claiming Crown events. MORGHYN will be closing late, but may have too much to do.
BET(S): WIN on 1 (at odds of 5-2 or greater).
