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Curlin Returns

On Saturday at Saratoga, Curlin will attempt to become the 20th Horse of the Year to win the Woodward Stakes, following in the footsteps of such notable equine stars as Sword Dancer, Kelso, Forego, Seattle Slew, Affirmed and Spectacular Bid (who ran unopposed).

Curlin has been installed as the 3-5 morning line favorite and looks as good as his odds suggest. In his last three dirt starts where Beyer speed ratings were recorded (Curlin raced twice in Dubai), Steve Asmussen’s wonder horse earned figures of 110, 119 and 114 — numbers matched only by Divine Park and Wanderin Boy.

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The talented Divine Park was last seen 96 days ago when he rallied off a sizzling pace to win the Metropolitan Handicap, but the son of Chester House has never gone this far and his 3.29 Dosage Index suggests longer distances may not be his strong suit.

Seven-year-old Wanderin Boy could be the strongest threat to the favorite. No stranger to graded stakes, the Nick Zito trainee appears to be the controlling speed. And his latest effort, a 3 ¼-length win in an optional claiming event that earned a 109 Beyer, was his best since a runner-up finish and identical 109 Beyer in the Whitney a year earlier.

Past the Point is another possible upsetter in the Woodward. Trained by Eoin Harty, Past the Point finished third in last year’s Super Derby and, despite a rough start to 2008, appears to have turned things around of late.

Saturday’s Free Picks

All selections (unless otherwise noted) are made in light of the conditions existing at the time of entry. Races taken off the turf, or modified in any way, should be passed.                                                                                                              

SARATOGA * RACE 9 (46%) * $250,000 Purse * 7.0 Furlongs * Dirt

1/1A-Forefathers/Premium Wine (5/1)

Fair Odds: 9-2

5-Ferocious Fires (15/1)

Fair Odds: 12-1                                                 

2-First Defence (9/2)

Fair Odds: 6-1                                      

COMMENTS: No strong feelings here other than a distaste for the likely odds-on choice, Lucky Island, who enter today’s contest after yet another mini vacation. True, trainer Kiaran McLaughlin has been pointing for this spot, but long breaks between races — even when a horse appears to need them — often leads to inconsistent results. In addition, Lucky Island is not going to have the luxury of establishing a clear lead in :22.4 against these, as he did in winning his last race, the Grade II Tom Fool. Thus, the entry looks like a nice alternative, as both FOREFATHERS and PREMIUM WINE have recorded the speed figures and late speed rations (LSRs) necessary to win this. NY-bred FEROCIOUS FIRES has yet to record a triple-digit Beyer, but he’s a perfect eight-for-eight on the dirt and earned a -7 LSR in annexing the Troy on Aug. 11. Conditioner Bobby Frankel told the Daily Racing Form he “did a little work” on FIRST DEFENCE, a Juddmonte entry that has won two of three starts at today’s distance; interesting to see if it pays off.

BET(S): DUTCH WIN on 1/1A entry (at odds of 9-2 or greater), 5 (at odds of 12-1 or greater) and 2 (at odds of 6-1 or greater). SHOW on 1/1A entry.   

WIN FACTOR METHOD SELECTION(S)                                                

TDN6: 3-Bello Pappa (2/1)                                                                   

Fair Odds: 7-5