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At the Gate - Saturday
October 4, 2008
By Mike Dempsey VegasInsider.com
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T here will be no time for college football on Saturday. There are nine Breeders’ Cup Challenge “Win and You’re In” races, four at Woodbine, three at Keeneland, and two at Belmont Park.
There are tremendous cards at both Keeneland and Belmont Park, and one look at today’s Live Longshots list shows we need to come armed with a hefty bankroll.
There appears to be plenty of opportunities to pad the bankroll. The racing is competitive and there are large fields at both tracks.
I was hoping to take a good look at the Woodbine card for Saturday, which features the Canadian International Stakes (G1) and the E.P. Taylor Stakes (G1).
However, I spent most of the day scoping out the twenty races from Keeneland and Belmont Park, and there are enough good wagering opportunities between those two tracks. I might not get to handicapping Woodbine until late in the day.
ESPN has a two-hour telecast starting at 4:00 ET, which will feature most of the Breeders’ Cup Challenge races.
To purchase my full card reports for Belmont Park and Keeneland that includes analysis, selections, fair odds, recommendations for today, click here.
Here is the opening race from Belmont Park to get our day off to a good start:
BEL Race 1 Clm $35,000N2L (1:00 et) #7 Conduct of Honour 8/1 #6 Frenchman's Cove 3/1 #12 Senor Enrico 5/1 #3 Allaboutmack 10/1
Analysis: #7 Conduct of Honour was outrun last out at six furlongs and stretches back out to a route. Two back at 7/1 the gelding made a good late rally to finish in the runner up spot, beaten a length for the top spot. The gelding has enough pedigree to handle two turns on turf and this gelding makes his third start since Gorham took over the training duties. Looking for him to bounce back here and the 8/1 ML looks fair enough in a wide open race.
#6 Frenchman's Cove was a good second last out over "good" ground here, unable to catch a loose on the lead gate to wire winner. The colt was nearly three lengths clear of the rest of the field. He makes his second start off the claim by the Brown barn that has been sending out live runners all year, many for these connections, the Ramsey's.
Wagering WIN: #7 to win at 5/1 or better. EX: 6,7 / 3,6,7,12 TRI: 6,7 / 3,6,7,12 / 1,3,6,7,12,13
Today’s Featured Race From Belmont Park:
BEL Race 9 Champagne S. G1 (5:15 et) #8 Brave Victory 6/1 #2 Cribnote 4/1 #4 Hello Broadway 7/2 #3 Vineyard Haven 8/1
Analysis: #8 Brave Victory was a good looking maiden winner last out in his third career start, drawing clear to win by 7 1/4 lengths. The colt earned the top last out speed fig and it would have been good to see Edgar take the call back after CNock rode him last out,. However, Zito goes to Sanchez while Edgar rides the Frankel runner. That could help our price and this colt still appears to have some upside. He has eight sibs that are winners including Nice to Know ($422K) and Cheers and Tears ($170K).
#2 Cribnote adds blinkers today. Last out he stalked the early pace from the outside, bore out badly, got back into the bit, and finished well for second. Caught an inside speed favoring racing strip and a gate to wire winner. His maiden score came over NY breds, but this guy looks talented enough to handle open company if he stays straight today.
Wagering WIN: #8 to win at 7/2 or better. EX: 2,8 / 2,3,4,8 TRI: 2,8 / 2,3,4,8 / 2,3,4,7,8,10
Today’s Featured Race From Keeneland:
KEE Race 7 Breeders' Futurity G1 (4:22 et) #6 Majestic Blue 6/1 #2 Reynaldothewizard 4/1 #9 Terrain 6/1 #11 Advice 7/2
Analysis: #6 Majestic Blue earned the top last out speed fig in his debut, breaking his maiden at Saratoga going 5 ½ furlongs. The colt was a $675K purchase, by Forestry out of a Seeking the Gold mare, her first foal to race. The colt has enough pedigree to handle the stretch out, and most of McLaughlin’s runners move forward second time out. The barn hits at a 25% clip (with a +ROI) with second time starters and is 25% winners (with a +ROI moving runners from sprint to route. The colt is just one of two in this field that did not compete in a stakes race last out, and hopefully the colt is overlooked on the tote.
#2 Reynaldothewizard is making his first start off nearly a two month break. His first start against winners was a third place finish last out in the G3 Saratoga Special. The colt lunged in the air at the start, had to steady in traffic at the half mile pole and then altered course to the inside and finished well. This colt was a $775K purchase, by first crop sire Speightstown out of the stakes winner Holiday Runner, who did her best running sprinting. His pedigree is light but his running style says he may be able to handle the extra ground.
#9 Terrain checked in third last out in the roughly run G3 Arlington Washington Futurity, and was put up to first after a double disqualification. The gelding had a tough trip in the stretch, having to take up a couple of times. The gelding has a solid pedigree, by Sky Mesa out of the stakes winner Minery. A clean trip and no doubt he can move forward off his last outing.
Wagering WIN: #6 to win at 7/2 or better. EX: 2,6 / 2,6,9,11 TRI: 2,6 / 2,6,9,11 / 2,3,6,7,9,11
Live Longshots: These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their trifecta and superfecta wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win-place wager.
Belmont Park R1: #7 Conduct of Honour 8/1 R1: #3 Allaboutmack 10/1 R2: #1 Diplomatic Code 15/1 R3: #1 Sargetn Seattle / #1a Twenty Eight Hours 12/1 R3: #5 Law N Dora 10/1 R4: #6 Tough Jake 15/1 R6: 31 Slambino 20/1 R7: #2 Vision of Sunrise 12/1 R7: #8 Yario 10/1 R7: #5 Dancing Calling 20/1 R8: #9 Heavenly Vision 10/1 R8: #3 War Echo 10/1 R8: #6 Collegiate 8/1 R9: #3 Vineyard Haven 8/1 R10: #5 Major General 8/1 R10: #7 Radical Sabbatical 8/1
Keeneland R2: #2 Kentucky Peaches 15/1 R3: #8 Guarda 8/1 R3: #9 Cats 10/1 R3: #4 Queen Ernestine 10/1 R4: #4 Mesa Gold 15/1 R4: #6 Crown the Chief 10/1 R5: #3 Picural 10/1 R5: #2 Disfunction 8/1 R5: #12 Semaphore Man 8/1 R6: #12 Magic Texan 15/1 R8: #111 Karelian 20/1
Good luck today!
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