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At the Gate - Sunday
October 5, 2008
By Brian Edwards VegasInsider.com
For all of your horse wagering needs, be sure to visit allhorseracing.com!
M y bankroll took a licking on Saturday, as it seemed I just could not put anything together.
I am nominating another jockey to join Pablo Frogoso in my Jockey Doghouse. Frogoso is a lifetime member, and might be joined shortly by Miguel Mena.
He was aboard my top pick Guarda in the third race at Keeneland. The filly was nearly 5/1 and I thought she had a good chance of winning as Mena mounted a four wide run around the far turn.
Next thing I know Mena is out in the six or seven path, and the filly flattened out in the stretch to finish second.
I struggled through most of the day, and I was looking forward to getting well in the G3 TCA Stakes, the ninth race on the card.
Wild Gams was my top pick, with Mena aboard. Indyanne set the early fractions as I expected, and I figured Wild Gams had a good chance of running her down late.
She mounted a good late run but Mena could not keep her straight, drifting in and ending up coming up a head shy of the top spot at 3/1.
It was just a terrible ride.
I got out on the finale at Keeneland with a $53.40 exacta and a $248.60 trifecta, but the damage was done. My bankroll was solidly in the red for the day, and I now have another jockey I’ll belittle every chance I get.
I dubbed Frogoso, the charter member of my Jockey Doghouse as “No Go” Frogoso.
I’ll have to come up with a fitting nickname for Mena.
Unless he brings home Peace Rock in the second race or Kerwin’s Way in the sixth race.
Yes, I must be a glutton for punishment. He is aboard both of those top picks this afternoon.
I’ll keep my blood pressure medicine close by,
To purchase my full card reports for Belmont Park and Keeneland that includes analysis, selections, fair odds, recommendations for today, click here.
Here is the opening race from Belmont Park to get our day off to a good start:
BEL Race 1 OClm $30,000N2X (1:00 et) #6 Solid Strike 20/1 #3 Hangingbyathread 3/1 #1 Unflagging / #1a Solvent 4/1 #8 Typhoon Tycoon 10/1
Analysis: #6 Solid Strike comes in here with sub par form but now stretches back out to a route. Back in the spring, this guy ran well on the turf, a win versus $35K claimers (non winners of three) and followed that up with a neck loss at today's level over the turf here. There is a bit too much early speed in here to have a ton of confidence this guy can rebound and take these gate to wire, but the price should be generous and this is not a real tough spot.
#3 Hangingbyathread finished well for the runner up spot last out at the Spa and three back won here versus $35K non winners of three with a solid late run. The gelding should get a good pace set up here, as the early pace should be brisk.
Wagering WIN: #6 to win at 8/1 or better. EX: 3,6 / 1,3,6,8 TRI: 3,6 / 1,3,6,8 / 1,2,3,6,8
Today’s Featured Race From Belmont Park:
BEL Race 9 Jerome Hcp G2 (5:15 et) #4 Visionaire 5/2 #3 You and I Forever 5/1 #5 Harlem Rocker 2/1 #1 Da' Tara / #1a Cool Coal Man 7/2
Analysis: #4 Visionaire was outrun in the early going, made a strong move around the far turn, and finished impressively for a sharp win in the G1 Kings Bishop, earning a career top in the victory. The colt was on the Triple Crown Trail early this year but he has shown in his last couple of starts that one turn suits him well. The stretch out to a one turn mile may be perfect for this guy. He won last out with something left in the tank and looks capable of winning right back.
#3 You and I Forever did not fire in the PA Derby last out after having to break from the far outside. He may have also regressed off a career top two back where he was beaten just a neck for the top spot in the restricted Walton. May add some value to the exacta here.
Wagering WIN: #4 to win at 9/5 or better. EX: 3,4 / 3,4,5 TRI: no play
Today’s Featured Race From Keeneland:
KEE Race 7 Woodford Reserve Bourbon S. (4:10 et) #4 Dynamic Force 12/1 #1 Bittel Road 6/5 #2 Giant Oak 3/1 #10 Driving Snow 15/1
Analysis: #4 Dynamic Force broke his maiden last out on poly in a race taken off the turf, his third career start. His lone go on turf was a third place finish going six furlongs two back. The winner of that race was Utterly Cool, who returned to beat Alw-1 foes in his next outing on 9/11 at Woodbine. This colt make like a two turn turf race as he is a half bro to turf stakes winner Zee Zee ($331K). The barn does good work with younger runners and we should catch a decent price in this spot.
#1 Bittel Road was scratched out of the Pilgrim on Wednesday and was my second choice in that race. Finds what appears to be a soft spot here and he figures to be a short price off his game win in the With Anticipation last out. The colt earned the top last out speed fig in the win. He is a logical threat here but can't get too excited about backing him at even money.
Wagering WIN: #4 to win at 6/1 or better. EX: 1,4 / 1,2,4,10 TRI: 1,4 / 1,2,4,10 / 1,2,4,7,9,10
Live Longshots: These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their trifecta and superfecta wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win-place wager.
Belmont Park R1: #6 Solid Strike 20/1 R1: #8 Typhoon Tycoon 10/1 R3: #8 Charing Cross 10/1 R4: #7 Kaper Lake 8/1 R5: #3 Chaposa Smoke 15/1 R6: #3 Estimator 10/1 R6: #6 McLovin 15/1 R7: #4 Fourth Chapter 10/1 R8: #2 Big Brian T 10/1 R8: #4 Straight Romance 12/1 R10: #4 Who Is Lady 8/1
Keeneland R2: #6 Chaffee John 8/1 R4: #5 Tithe 8/1 R6: #3 Kerwin’s Way 15/1 R6: #9 California Strike 10/1 R7: #4 Dynamic Force 12/1 R7 #10 Driving Snow 15//1 R8: #3 Acadia Breeze 8/1 R8: #2 Happiness Is 10/1 R8: #12 Callie’s Joy 15/1 R9: #1 Wake Up Maggie 10/1 R10: #3 Indy Run 12/1
Good luck today!
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