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At the Gate - Thursday
October 9, 2008
By Mike Dempsey VegasInsider.com
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T he announcement on Wednesday that the 2010 Breeders’’ Cup World Championships would be held at Churchill Downs was welcome news to most horseplayers.
The Breeders’ Cup will be run over a synthetic surface this year and next at Santa Anita, and more than a few bettors that I have talked to are saying their wagering handle will be downsized this year.
The 2010 running of the Breeders’ Cup will be seventh time it has been held at Churchill Downs. The two day event will be held on Friday, November 5 and Saturday, November 6, 2010.
Churchill Downs has been the site of six of the seven largest Breeders' Cup crowds including a record attendance of 80,452 in 1998.
Churchill Downs was the site of perhaps the most memorable Breeders’ Cup race. Personal Ensign, who looked hopelessly beaten somehow managed to get up late to win the Distaff (now called the Ladies Classic) in 1988.
Alysheba won the Classic that year, wrapping up Horse of the Year honors.
After two years of the championship days being run on Pro Ride, it will be a relief to handicap the races again on the good old fashioned racing surface called dirt.
To purchase my full card reports for Belmont Park and Keeneland that includes analysis, selections, fair odds, recommendations for today, click here.
Here is the opening race from Belmont Park to get our day off to a good start:
BEL Race 1 Clm $25,000B (1:00 et) #2 Peleliu 2/1 #8 Pinfree 4/1 #4 Seventeen Love 3/1 #5 Sumwhrovrtherainbw 15/1
Analysis: #2 Peleliu went gate to wire to beat restricted $25K claimers last out in her first start for the Persaud barn off the claim. Two back the filly dueled for the early lead and could not hold off the top pair in a third place finish. The winner of that race was Sorority Sister, who returned to beat Alw-1 NY breds in her next start on 9/28. The filly owns the edge in early and mid pace numbers and she will prove tough to run down again here in this spot.
#8 Pinfree exits a turf race at Laurel against $35K claimers (non-winners of three or straight three year olds) where she checked in fifth while beaten 2 3/4 lengths for the top spot. She figures to move forward in her second start for Contessa and her second go off a three-month break. The barn is 19% winners moving runners from turf to dirt and she is the lone five-time winner in the field.
Wagering WIN: #2 to win at 9/5 or better. EX: 2,8 / 2,4,5,8 TRI: 2,8 / 2,4,5,8 / 1,2,4,5,8
Today’s Featured Race From Belmont Park:
BEL Race 8 Alw $55,000N1X (4:45 et) #6 Choosing 5/1 #10 Tourism 6/1 #11 According to Plan 4/1 #3 Spectacular Tale 20/1
Analysis: #6 Choosing stalked the early pace and packed it in readily last out over yielding footing to check in a distant ninth, beaten 26 lengths. Two back this filly was a game third at a mile over "good" ground, missing the top spot by less than a length, finishing third behind a pair of next out winners. The cut back to seven panels may suit and she is better than she showed last out.
#10 Tourism made a mild late run to finish fifth last out going two turns at the Spa. She broke her maiden in her debut over the turf here and Shug rarely wins first time out. A nice pedigree on this gal, by Seeking the Gold out of the stakes winner Resort, who has dropped one other foal to race, stakes winner Sightseeing ($508K).
Wagering WIN: #6 to win at 7/2 or better. EX: 6,10 / 3,6,10,11 TRI: 6,10 / 3,6,10,11 / 3,4,6,9,10,11
Today’s Featured Race From Keeneland:
KEE Race 8 Jessamine S. (4:40 et) #1 Habaya 4/1 #11 Abbott Hall 3/1 #4 Complicity 5/1 #10 Phola 6/1
Analysis: #1 Habaya was an impressive maiden winner in her debut, coming with a six wide run, taking over the lead at the eighth pole and drawing clear late. The filly is bred to be a nice one, by Storm Cat out of the stakes winner Golden Apples ($1.6 million). The barn moves them forward after a start, hitting at a 28% clip (with a +ROI) with second time starters. The filly will appreciate the extra ground. #11 Abbott Hall won the $150K Happy Ticket at Lou Downs last out in her first start against winners, drawing clear to win by six lengths in a good looking effort. She draws a tough post here but appears to have plenty of talent and looks to be getting better with each start.
#4 Complicity makes her first start on turf. She made a good late run to finish in the runner up spot in the Ky Cup Juvie Fillies last out over poly at Turfway. She has a pair of sibs that are turf winners and she fits here as an improving runner for a high % outfit.
Wagering WIN: #1 to win at 3/1 or better. EX: 1,11 / 1,4,10,11 TRI: 1,11 / 1,4,10,11 / 1,4,6,7,10,11
Live Longshots: These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their trifecta and superfecta wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win-place wager.
Keeneland R1: #11 Sheza Justice 15/1 R2: #11 Out Cold 8/1 R2: #4 Tres Copy 12/1 R3: #1 Spokalu 15/1 R3: #2 Tony Terrific 10/1 R5: #2 Approvedbythemint 12/1 R6: #10 Map of the World 8/1 R6: #3 Kanzel 10/1 R7: #2 Luvandgo 8/1 R7: #4 Wayward Groom 8/1 R9: #8 D J’s Dreamer 10/1
Belmont Park R1: #5 Sumwhrovrtherainbow 15/1 R2: #5 Sweet Groom 12/1 R2: #6 Karakorum Pirate 20/1 R4: #12 Synchroncity 8/1 R5: #2 The Vin Man 12/1 R7: #4 Point Me to It 12/1 R7: #7 Speedsatorm 8/1 R8: #3 Spectacular Tale 20/1 R9: #6 Here Comes Charlie 8/1 R9: #10 Northern Storm 10/1
Good luck today!
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