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At the Gate - Friday
October 10, 2008
By Mike Dempsey VegasInsider.com
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W e turned in a good day at Belmont Park on Thursday, the three winners on top producing a +122% +ROI for the day. That was largely thanks to Point Me To It, who was 12/1 on the morning line and paid $18.20 as my top pick.
Keeneland was a struggle, with just two winners on top on the nine race card, paying $3.20 and $8.40. Map of the World was the top pick that paid $8.40. The first time starter from the Albert Stall barn was bet down from a 8/1 morning line.
There are solid cards on tap at both Keeneland and Belmont Park today. There are plenty of maiden and turf races, which kept me working for most of the day yesterday.
I did not finish the Belmont Park card until nearly 9:00 in the evening.
Sometimes I wish I was paid by the hour.
To purchase my full card reports for Belmont Park and Keeneland that includes analysis, selections, fair odds, recommendations for today, click here.
Here is the opening race from Belmont Park to get our day off to a good start:
BEL Race 1 Clm $35,000N2L (1:00 et) #12 Furthest Land 8/1 #4 Exchanging Kisses 3/1 #11 More to It 12/1 #8 Cloud Nine 6/1
Analysis: #12 Furthest Land tries turf for the first time here for the Clement barn that is 13% winners moving runners from dirt to turf. Was last seen checking in fourth at Suffolk against Alw-1 foes. The gelding has a good turf pedigree, by Smart Strike (16% first turf) out of a unraced Rahy mare, her first foal to race. The gelding is in for a tag for the first time here and the 8/1 ML looks fair enough.
#4 Exchanging Kisses cuts back to a sprint here after setting the early fractions and weakening to finish seventh last out at the Spa going two turns. Three back this guy missed beating $45K maiden claimers, setting the early fractions and beaten a head for the top spot. The gelding drops unto an easier spot here.
Wagering WIN: #12 to win at 4/1 or better. EX: 4,12 / 4,8,11 12 TRI: 4,12 / 4,8,11,12 / 2,4,5,8,11,12
Today’s Featured Race From Belmont Park: BEL Race 8 OClm $75,000N3X (4:45 et) #7 Jeux de Danse 9/2 #4 Polar Circle 2/1 #5 Sar Dixie 8/1 #2 Sea Chanter 9/5
Analysis: #7 Jeux de Danse did not fire last out for Reynolds against Alw-2 optional claimers and it was encouraging to see Contessa dip back in to take this mare back. She beat Alw-2 company two back on the turf here, earning a career top. She sat on the bench nearly three months for the new barn and looking for this gal to bounce back with a better effort here on the return to Contessa.
#4 Polar Circle took Alw-2 optional claimers gate to wire last out over the turf course at Monmouth in a sharp effort. It was her first win since arriving in the U.S. and landing with the Mott barn. She catches another field here without much early speed signed up and she looks capable of stealing this one on the front much as she did last out. Barn seems to be coming around after struggling at the Spa meet.
Wagering WIN: #7 to win at 7/2 or better. EX: 4,7 / 2,4,5,7 TRI: 4,7 / 2,4,5,7 / 2,4,5,6,7
Today’s Featured Race From Keeneland:
KEE Race 9 Buffalo Trace Franklin Co. S. (5:10 et) #5 Adhsilver 15/1 #7 Sly Storm 7/2 #3 Taletobetold 5/2 #1 American County 5/1
Analysis: #5 Adhsilver is making her turf debut here and generally I don't like backing first time turfers in a turf stake but this race appears to have come up on the light side. The filly has won 4 of her last 5 starts, all on Tapeta. She is coming up on the light side pedigree wise, by Adhocracy (8% first turf from a limited sampling) out of a Silver Charm mare who was 0 for 1 in her career and this is her first foal to race. She comes in here razor sharp and the 15/1 ML sure looks tempting.
#7 Sly Storm won her turf debut against optional claimers last out at Arlington over soft ground going five furlongs. She is a stakes winner on the main track and her lone sub par effort came at the Spa in graded stakes company. Love her pedigree, by Storm Cat out of the brilliant racemare Brushed Halory ($496K) who never tried the turf and did her best running long on the main track.
Wagering WIN: #5 to win at 8/1 or better. EX: 5,7 / 1,3,5,7 TRI: 5,7 / 1,3,5,7 / 1,2,3,5,7
Live Longshots: These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their trifecta and superfecta wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win-place wager.
Keeneland R1: #11 Centarus 15/1 R2: #7 Citizen John 10/1 R3: #1 Tawfeer 12/1 R4: #3 Matty’s Song 20/1 R5: #2 Cruzada Americana 12/1 R6: #12 Southern Surge 15/1 R9: #5 Adhsilver 15/1 R10: #1 Shameless 10/1
Belmont Park R1: #12 Furthest Land 8/1 R1: #11 More to It 12/1 R2: #7 Credit Storm 15/1 R3: #3 Wisdom and Luck 10/1 R3: #4 Soul Violins 8/1 R4: #12 Cat Three Approach 10/1 R5: #4 Handsome Reward 8/1 R8: #5 Sar Dixie 8/1 R9: #7 Gold Vendetta 10/1
Good luck today!
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