The results on Saturday at Keeneland were not “amazing” thanks to a rail skimming ride by Julien Leparoux in the $200,000 Perrryville.
My top pick was Amazing Results, who was 20/1 on the morning line and bet down to 7/1. With 50 yards to go it looked like the six wide trip around the far turn would not matter, but we were caught late and came up a neck short in a real tough beat.
In the $500,000 Queen Elizabeth Challenge Cup, we again had a longshot get drilled at the windows. Sefroua was bet down to 6/1 from her 20/1 morning line.
It was not smart money.
She did not fare as well, finishing seventh behind the winner Alwajeeha, who returned $25.20 for the win.
We ended up in the red at Keeneland overall on the card. At Belmont Park, we turned a modest profit with my top picks, thanks mainly to No More Green, who returned $16.40 as my top pick.
The feature at Belmont Park on Sunday is the Xtra Heat Stakes, which for some reason is run on the turf despite Xtra Heat being known as a dirt sprinter.
Ironically, Xtra Heat has her third foal to race making her debut in today’s second race.
Elusive Heat is a $750,000 purchase making her debut for the Kieran McLaughlin barn. Xtra Heat ($2.4 million) has dropped two other foals to race, Southwestern Heat ($155K) and A Rated Cat ($103K). She is working as if she is going to be a quick and talented filly.
To purchase my full card reports for Belmont Park and Keeneland that includes analysis, selections, fair odds, recommendations for today click here.
Here is the opening race from Keeneland to get our day off to a good start:
KEE Race 1 Md $30,000 (1:10 et)
#8 Casino Kid 10/1
#7 Oughtlands 8/1
#9 Edit This 5/1
#1 Sunshine Bay 6/1
Analysis: #8 Casino Kid was off last out and was not a factor in his debut, finishing 12th and last against maiden special weight company on the turf at Arlington. Wilkes runners usually are not fully cranked first time out and the gelding reportedly bled and returns with lasix along with a class drop here. The gelding has decent works on the morning tab and might be better suited for the poly than turf. The sire Maria's Mon is a good poly sire and the mare has dropped four other foals to race, all winners including stakes winner High Limit ($822K). Looking for a better effort out of this gelding here facing easier company.
#7 Oughtlands makes his first start since last May for Reinstedler, who takes over for Pletcher. The trainer is 25% winners (with a +ROI) with newcomers to the barn and 24% winners (with a +ROI) with horses coming back off a +180 day layoff. Decent works and this barn can get them ready to go off the bench.
Wagering
WIN: #8 to win at 6/1 or better.
EX: 7,8 / 1,7,8,9
TRI: 7,8 / 1,7,8,9 / 1,2,5,7,8,9
Today’s Featured Race From Belmont Park:
BEL Race 9 Xtra Heat Hcp (5:15 et)
#5 Mohegan Sky 3/1
#8 Smart and Fancy 7/2
#7 House Quest 10/1
#6 Diamondrella 7/2
Analysis: #5 Mohegan Sky is making her first start since June where she checked in third in the G3 Jaipur over yielding turf. She earned a career top in that effort. Two back she ran a good second in the restricted Dynamic Lisa behind Rewrite, who came back to win the NY bred Irish Actress in her next outing. She has run well over the turf here, landing in the exacta in 5 of 8 trips and Rice barn is always dangerous in turf sprints, winning 56 of them over the past three years (22%). The mare has been working well in the mornings for a barn that is always good off the bench, hitting at an 18% clip with horses returning off a 61-180 day layoff.
#8 Smart and Fancy was shuffled back on the far turn while down along the inside and angled out for the stretch drive and finished well for the runner up spot. She has won 5 of 7 on turf in her career and makes her third start of her current form cycle for the Tony D. barn. She looks tough in this spot.
Wagering
WIN: #5 to win at 5/2 or better.
EX: 5,8 / 5,6,7,8
TRI: 5,8 / 5,6,7,8 / 3,5,6,7,8
Today’s Featured Race From Keeneland:
KEE Race 8 Bryan Station S. G3 (4:40 et)
#6 Seaspeak 20/1
#4 Cowboy Cal 9/5
#5 Deal Making 5/1
#7 Big Stick 12/1
Analysis: #6 Seaspeak came up just 3/4 of a length shy of beating Alw-1 foes last out in a game effort at Arlington. The race he exits has produced four next out winners. Last fall at Churchill this guy was good enough to run third in a $66K stake in his first go against winners. I think this guy could be ready for a career top in his third start of his current form cycle and his 230/1 ML sure looks enticing.
#4 Cowboy Cal is making his first start since fading to ninth in the Ky Derby. He is proven on turf, winning 3 of 4 starts with a second. Pletcher is 20% winners with horses coming back off a 61-180 day layoff. The price figures to dip from the 9/5 ML, which makes this guy tough to get excited about. The works are jumping off the page and he spots the field six pounds. Just a bit of a hunch, he may not be fully cranked.
Wagering
WIN: #6 to win at 8/1 or better.
EX: 4,6 / 4,5,6,7
TRI: 4,6 / 4,5,6,7 / 3,4,5,6,7,11
Keeneland
R1: #8 Casino Kid 10/1
R1: Oughtlands 8/1
R2: #7 Sabeeb 12/1
R2: #9 Lees Mist 8/1
R3: #2 Mr. Georges Dreams 12/1
R6: #11 Venado 12/1
R8: #6 Seaspeak 20/1
R8: #7 Big Stick 12/1
R9: #5 Royal Terms 10/1
Belmont Park
R1:#3 Saratoga Jet 20/1
R2: #9 Datts Lady Di 8/1
R3: #2 Open Skies 10/1
R4: #6 Be Bullish 8/1
R4: #2 Bordeaux Bandit 12/1
R5: #5 Flying Spur 8/1
R6: #7 Posey Park 15/1
R7: #12 Alpha Dancer 8/1
R7: #6 Mahopac 8/1
R9: #7 House Quest 10/1
Good luck today!