Welcome to “Anthony’s Eleven,” your source for anything and everything leading up to Kentucky Derby 135 on May 2 at historic Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky. In the coming weeks, Anthony Stabile, best known for picking 2003 Kentucky Derby winner Funny Cide at odds of over 12-1, will break down the top contenders for this years Run for the Roses, exclusively on VegasInsider.com, culminating on Friday, May 1st with an extensive analysis of every runner that steps into the gate for the most exciting two minutes in sports. Anthony will be covering the Kentucky Derby LIVE from Churchill Downs with all of the latest information. To purchase Anthony Stabile products, click HERE.
Pool 3 of the Kentucky Derby Future Wager is upon us, so that means you get a complete breakdown of each runner as well as the regular version of “Anthony’s Eleven” before the prep action begins this weekend.
Pool 3 # - Horse, Trainer (Pool 3 M/L)
1. Charitable Man, Kiaran McLaughlin (30-1)
Will race just once before the Derby, most likely in the G1 Blue Grass on 4/11, having not run since mid-September of last year. They’re really grasping at straws to fill up the spots in Pool 3.
2. Chocolate Candy, Jerry Hollendorfer (30-1)
Tries the big boys one last time to see if he belongs in the G1 Santa Anita Derby on Saturday after struggling a bit with lesser foes in Northern California this winter. Not for me.
3. Desert Party, Saeed bin Suroor (30-1)
Godolphin’s best Derby hope was probably best when beaten just a half-length in G2 U.A.E. Derby in Dubai last Saturday over a speed biased course that adversely affected his chances. Still, we all know how I feel about Godolphin’s way of doing things.
4. Dunkirk, Todd Pletcher (8-1)
Will he or won’t he get in? That’s probably the most important question as far as this wager and perhaps the entire Derby trail is concerned. That lightening quick Gulfstream surface last Saturday not only benefited Quality Road greatly but it pretty much killed this guys chances and he STILL almost pulled it off. I absolutely love his chances in the Derby if he gets in. With that said, I don’t know if he’s going to make it with just $150K in graded stakes earnings so it’s probably best to pass on him as far as this wager is concerned unless he’s some ridiculous price, say 20-1 or higher. Then I’d make a small wager on him.
5. Flying Private, D. Wayne Lukas (50-1)
See the last sentence written about Charitable Man.
6. Friesan Fire, Larry Jones (8-1)
I have been saying in the recent weeks that another one of the unbreakable Derby Rules will be broken this year, but Mr. Jones is really pushing those limits by running this colt off of a seven week layoff and having never run past 1 1/6 miles. His talent is unmistakable and he’s on a serious roll when you account for his sweep of the three Fair Grounds preps. But seven weeks is going to be a tough road to hoe and combined with his price I can’t recommend a wager here.
7. Giant Oak, Chris Block (30-1)
Seriously, this horse is still here? Give it up Block because even if he wins the G2 Illinois Derby on Saturday no one is going to care because it would be better named the Prep of Who Could Care Less.
8. Hold Me Back, Bill Mott (30-1)
My main man Bill Mott got himself thrust into the Derby picture when this guy put in a sparkling performance to win the G2 Lane’s End last out in his first start in Almost four months. The problem is that he’s 3 for 3 over synthetics and beat just two horses in his lone start over conventional dirt. I’m passing.
9. I Want Revenge, Jeff Mullins (8-1)
One of several in here that will give you fits. If he wins the G1 Wood Memorial on Saturday, his price will be even lower than his morning line of 8-1. If he loses Saturday, who knows if he’ll even run in the Derby? I’m not his biggest fan so I’m passing but can’t blame those wagering on him.
10. Imperial Council, Shug McGaughey (20-1)
He’s been my top prospect since Day 1 and I’m not about to jump ship now. Personally, I think he’ll win the Wood Memorial impressively this Saturday but that’ll kill the price here for the most part. Should he not win Saturday yet still garner enough graded stakes earnings to run in the Derby and he’s 10-1 or better, tap out.
11. Mafaaz, John Gosden (50-1)
I thought the “Win and You’re In” Breeders Cup concept was the most ridiculous thing I’ve seen in racing until the Kentucky Derby Challenge Stakes held in England at Kempton over a synthetic surface which this colt one. I’m staying as far away as possible.
12. Musket Man, Derek Ryan (30-1)
Avenged his lone defeat in the G3 Sam Davis two back by rallying in deep stretch to win the G3 Tampa Bay Derby last out. Connections were iffy about the $6K Triple Crown supplement after that victory but went ahead and ponied up the cash while pointing him to Saturday’s Illinois Derby. Not Derby material if you ask me.
13. Mr. Hot Stuff, Eoin Harty (30-1)
Broke maiden two back before finishing distant third in G3 Sham. You have got to be kidding me.
14. Old Fashioned, Larry Jones (10-1)
Will be reunited with jockey Terry Thompson when he starts in the G2 Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn on 4/11. Has become the forgotten horse off just one second place finish and that could bode well for those who are still a fan like myself. I think he’ll be double his morning line and is definitely worth a wager if that’s the case.
15. Papa Clem, Gary Stute (30-1)
Ran well when second in La. Derby last out, his dirt debut and will try Arkansas Derby next. His biggest problem is that there appears to be a plethora of front running types on this years trail and that isn’t in his favor. Still, you could take a flyer on worse and he should be around 50-1.
16. Pioneerof the Nile, Bob Baffert (10-1)
Falls into the same category as I Want Revenge because a win in the G1 Santa Anita Derby on Saturday will make him no worse than third choice in the Derby in spite of the fact that he’s never tried dirt. I’ve said all along that his talent isn’t the question and as more and more of the dirt horses fall by the wayside, his stock rises in my eyes. As far as a wager though, I’ll pass.
17. Quality Road, Jimmy Jerkens (6-1)
Was obviously aided by the course at Gulfstream last Saturday but few have accomplished in a four-race career that he has. Still not sold that he wants to go 1 ¼ miles but lesser have gotten the extra furlong. You’re problem here is that the price is going to stink. In fact, he may actually be favored when the pool closes on Sunday and the one thing I’ve stressed about these pools is that you must command value and he offers none.
18. Regal Ransom, Saeed bin Suroor (30-1)
We know how I feel about Godolphin and this guy is no different, though if he was trained more conventionally I think he’d be a major player. Unfortunately, he hasn’t and he goes in the “pass” pile.
19. Take the Points, Todd Pletcher (30-1)
Another interesting one. Has run well in all five career starts, all contested at different racetracks. Chased The Pamplemousse in the Sham and still held the place well. Would have loved to have seen him back on conventional dirt for his final prep but it wasn’t to be. If he should run well Saturday, say a top three performance, a flyer on him wouldn’t be the worse thing you could do, especially at 40-1 or better.
20. Terrain, Al Stall (50-1)
I don’t get his run in next Saturday’s Blue Grass as he is winless in three tries over synthetic surfaces. Closed to finish third in a somewhat paceless La. Derby last out in his sophomore debut and would be making his third start off of a layoff should he continue down the road to Louisville. Another who’s flyer worthy at that price.
21. The Pamplemousse, Julio Canani (10-1)
I’ve never really been a fan and that’s not going to change. While he does win on the front end over synthetic surfaces, which isn’t the easiest thing to do, I feel he’s yet to face real competition. He will in Saturday’s Santa Anita Derby and while my opinion may change should he handle the big boys, I doubt he’ll do anything to make it happen.
22. Theregoesjojo, Ken McPeek (20-1)
Started losing ground on top two in Florida Derby at the top of stretch and that isn’t a good sign. At the end of the day, he may just be a one run sprinter but I’m willing to give him one more chance.
23. Win Willy, McLean Robertson (20-1)
When you look up the word “fluke” in the dictionary, his picture is right next to it.
24. Field All other 3-year-olds (10-1)
At this stage of the game, the Derby winner almost has to be on the list so I look at this as a sucker play.
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