Welcome to “Anthony’s Eleven,” your source for anything and everything leading up to Kentucky Derby 135 on May 2 at historic Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky. In the coming weeks, Anthony Stabile, best known for picking 2003 Kentucky Derby winner Funny Cide at odds of over 12-1, will break down the top contenders for this years Run for the Roses, exclusively on VegasInsider.com, culminating on Friday, May 1st with an extensive analysis of every runner that steps into the gate for the most exciting two minutes in sports. Anthony will be covering the Kentucky Derby LIVE from Churchill Downs with all of the latest information. To purchase Anthony Stabile products, click HERE.

Breakdown

Rank Horse Jockey Trainer Next Race Pool 3 Odds 1 Imperial Council Edgar Prado Shug McGaughey Wood Memorial, 4/11 at Aqu 20/1 2 Dunkirk Garrett Gomez Todd Pletcher Kentucky Derby, May 2 at CD 8/1 3 Friesan Fire Gabriel Saez Larry Jones Kentucky Derby, May 2 at CD 8/1 4 Old Fashioned Terry Thompson Larry Jones Arkansas Derby, 4/11 at OP 10/1 5 Pioneerof the Nile Garrett Gomez Bob Baffert Santa Anita Derby, 4/4 at SA 10/1 6 I Want Revenge Joe Talamo Jeff Mullins Wood Memorial, 4/11 at Aqu 8/1 7 Quality Road John Velazquez Jimmy Jerkins Kentucky Derby, May 2 at CD 6/1 9 West Side Bernie Edgar Prado Kelly Breen Lane's End, 3/21 at TP 43/1 8 Terrain Julien Leparoux Al Stall Blue Grass, 4/11 at Kee 50/1 9 Papa Clem Rafael Bejarano Gary Stute Arkansas Derby, 4/11 at OP 30/1 10 Theregoesjojo Kent Desormeaux Ken McPeek Kentucky Derby, May 2 at CD 20/1 11 Hello Broadway Edgar Prado Barclay Tagg Undecided 10/1 (Field)

With just six preps and four weeks remaining until Kentucky Derby 135, I’m amazed at how different the complexions of this Saturday's three races are.

At Aqueduct, Davids will take on Goliath as I Want Revenge will look to roll into Louisville as the favorite with another sparkling performance when he takes on seven others in the $750,000 G1 Wood Memorial going 1 1/8 miles. At Hawthorne, a bunch of tougher prep also-rans will tackle a slew of no-names in the $500,000 G2 Illinois Derby going 1 1/8 miles. At Santa Anita, Pioneerof the Nile and The Pamplemousse will battle for West Coast supremacy against eight others in the $750,000 G1 Santa Anita Derby going 1 1/8 miles over the ProRide surface. We’ll start in the Big Apple.

Going into the G3 Gotham, I Want Revenge had never stepped foot on conventional dirt and while he hung in there with some of the best Polytrack pros on the left coast, he still had plenty of questions to answer. In his second start with blinkers, he answered the most important one as he relished the Aqueduct inner dirt strip by winning the Gotham by 8 ½ lengths in his second start with blinkers.

Since the Gotham, a half interest has been sold in the son of Stephen Got Even for a reported $4 million to IEAH Stables who won the Derby and Preakness last year with Big Brown. In the Wood, he’s drawn the rail with regular rider Joe Talamo back aboard and it appears that he’ll have to answer yet another question as the 4-5 morning line favorite as it has rained all of Friday morning and it doesn’t appear to be letting up anytime soon.

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A wet track, combined with the rail draw could leave Talamo with an interesting decision when the gate opens as to whether he should use his colts’ early speed or let some of the other cheaper speeds, like Lord Justice and Atomic Rain, help him work out a similar trip to the one he had in the Gotham.

Gotham runner-up Imperial Council should be shadowing I Want Revenge as trainer Shug McGaughey has stated publicly that his charge will be much closer to the pace than he was in the Gotham, when jockey Rajiv Maragh took this son of Empire Maker back to next to last. In his previous starts, Imperial Council was always much closer to the pace and I for one feel the outcome of the Gotham would have been different had he followed a similar game plan. Bred to relish an off track, Edgar Prado returns to the saddle and rates the best chance to upset the favorite in the Wood. He’ll break from post 6.

One of the reasons the aforementioned Atomic Rain is in the Wood is to ensure a quick early pace for his far more heralded entrymate West Side Bernie. West Side Bernie has traveled down the Derby trail in a fairly unconventional manner this season, having finished third in the G3 Holy Bull at Gulfstream in late January in his seasonal bow before never picking up his feet last out in the G2 Lane’s End just two weeks ago. One of the reasons trainer Kelly Breen has been able to march to the beat of his own drum this Derby season is because “Bernie” has more than enough graded stakes earnings to get into the Derby starting gate. Stewart Elliot replaces Prado in the saddle.

The rest of the Wood Memorial field is comprised of Cellar Dweller, second in the Whirlaway three back; the Nick Zito trained Just a Coincidence, winner of his last two at Gulfstream and Lime Rickey who’ll be trying dirt for the first time after making the first nine starts of his career on the turf.

In California, the S.A. Derby figures to boil down to whether or not the hard charging Pioneerof the Nile can catch The Pamplemousse. Zayat Stables, who owns Pioneerof the Nile have tried to further that colts’ chances by entering the speedy Z Day who figures to be in here for no other reason than to keep The Pamplemousse busy on the front end.

Pioneerof the Nile actually switched tactics up a bit out of necessity last out in the G2 San Felipe, as a loose on the lead New Bay was waltzing around the Santa Anita oval all alone on the lead through moderate early fractions before Garrett Gomez joined him midway down the backside. After shaking off that early challenge, Pioneerof the Nile held off a tepid late run by Feisty Suances, who’s back for another crack at him, to register a 1 ¼ length score.

Perhaps the presence of Z Day will backfire on their connections and he’ll serve as nothing more than an early target for The Pamplemousse. Though he does his best running when in front as he wired both the G3 San Rafael and Sham in his last two starts, he did rate a bit in his maiden win and Z Day doesn’t figure to hang around for two long. In fact, if Z Day goes real crazy early on, it’ll almost be like he is in his own race and The Pamplemousse will lead the charge past him.

If you’re searching for someone to upset the favorites, Take the Points is the one for you. Second in the Sham after chasing The Pamplemousse last out, Take the Points figures to get a much better set up in here and has the benefit of having been over the course. Chris DeCarlo rides for trainer Todd Pletcher.

From the rail out, the rest of the S.A. Derby consists of G3 El Camino Real Derby winner Chocolate Candy; longshot Unbridled Roman; the third place finisher in the Sham, Mr. Hot Stuff; the Doug O’Neill trained Cape Truth and Gallant Son, winner of the Pasadena on the grass last out.

Finally, the Illinois Derby offers a little something for everyone. G3 Tampa Bay Derby winner Musket Man figures to vie for favoritism with the much talked about/underachieving Giant Oak who is shipping in off a fourth place finish in the G2 Louisiana Derby as well as Al Khali, an impressive Gulfstream allowance winner from the Pletcher barn who was making his first U.S. start off of a four month layoff in his most recent.

Nowhere to Hide will shed blinkers while representing the Zito barn. He was fourth in the T.B. Derby last out after a wide journey. Toccet Rocket returns from a pair of third place finishes in minor stakes at Turfway after breaking his maiden at Hawthorne in mid-December. His Greatness was off the board in the Rebel last out after winning an allowance contest in his seasonal bow two back. Perfect Son ships in from Laurel and has won both of his starts on dirt. Free Country sheds blinkers after finishing last in the La. Derby. Il Postino broke his maiden in a $20K claimer last out when adding blinkers for Pletcher. Knight Shot broke his maiden sprinting here last November.

For any questions and comments, email Anthony Stabile at VegasInsider.com today!