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Welcome to “Anthony’s Eleven,” your source for anything and everything leading up to Kentucky Derby 135 on May 2 at historic Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky. In the coming weeks, Anthony Stabile, best known for picking 2003 Kentucky Derby winner Funny Cide at odds of over 12-1, will break down the top contenders for this years Run for the Roses, exclusively on VegasInsider.com, culminating on Friday, May 1st with an extensive analysis of every runner that steps into the gate for the most exciting two minutes in sports. Anthony will be covering the Kentucky Derby LIVE from Churchill Downs with all of the latest information. To purchase Anthony Stabile products, click HERE.

Breakdown

Rank Horse Jockey Trainer Next Race Pool 3 Odds 1 Dunkirk Garrett Gomez Todd Pletcher Kentucky Derby, May 2 at CD 11/1 2 Pioneerof the Nile Garrett Gomez Bob Baffert Kentucky Derby, May 2 at CD 9/1 3 Friesan Fire Gabriel Saez Larry Jones Kentucky Derby, May 2 at CD 8/1 4 I Want Revenge Joe Talamo Jeff Mullins Kentucky Derby, May 2 at CD 9/2 5 Old Fashioned Terry Thompson Larry Jones Arkansas Derby, 4/11 at OP 12/1 6 West Side Bernie Stewart Elliot Kelly Breen Kentucky Derby, May 2 at CD 17/1 (Field) 7 Theregoesjojo Calvin Borel Ken McPeek Blue Grass, 4/11 at Kee 49/1 8 Terrain Julien Leparoux Al Stall Blue Grass, 4/11 at Kee 47/1 9 Papa Clem Rafael Bejarano Gary Stute Arkansas Derby, 4/11 at OP 47/1 10 Quality Road John Velazquez Jimmy Jerkins Kentucky Derby, May 2 at CD 6/1 11 Hold Me Back Kent Desormeaux Bill Mott Blue Grass, 4/11 at Kee 24/1

If my calculations are correct, I’ve already covered close to two dozen preps for this years’ 135th running of the Kentucky Derby on May 2nd, so what’s a couple of more this week and one more next week? I’m sure plenty of you are looking forward to recapping the season so far, and we’ll do that next week with the G2 Lexington serving as the last stop on the 2009 Derby Trail, the only race to cover.

As far as this week goes, we have ten trying their hooves in the $1 million G2 Arkansas Derby going 1 1/8 miles at Oaklawn Park while eleven others will make a last ditch effort to punch their ticket to Louisville in the $750,000 G1 Blue Grass over the Polytrack surface going the same distance at Keeneland. We’ll start in horse country.

For some, this years’ Blue Grass is serving as no more than a final tune-up for the Derby while several others are using it as a last chance to prove they belong while grabbing some much needed graded stakes earnings along the way. The logical favorite, G2 Lane’s End winner Hold Me Back, falls into the first category.

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Last season Hold Me Back won his first two starts over synthetic surfaces before failing to fire in the G2 Remsen at Aqueduct, his first start on dirt. Forgotten by most, Hold Me Back didn’t resurface until the Lane’s End, which he won with a powerful late run despite racing wide, by 1 ¾ lengths. After drawing the rail last out, he’ll break from post 10 in the Blue Grass with Kent Desormeaux returning in the saddle for trainer Bill Mott.

Another who’s made just one start prior to the Blue Grass this year is Terrain. After breaking his maiden at first asking for a $50K claiming price at Churchill and winning an allowance contest at Mountaineer, both on dirt, Terrain lost three straight on synthetic surfaces but did so in races like the G1 Breeders’ Futurity at Keeneland when he was second and in the G1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile when he finished fourth after a tough trip.

A failed blinkers experiment in the G3 Delta Jackpot was the last time Terrain was seen before his third place finish in the slop last out at the Fair Grounds in the G2 Louisiana Derby, his first start in over three months. With plenty of earnings under his belt, trainer Al Stall was able to take his time with Terrain and is one of those who can coast into Derby. Julien Leparoux rides from post 6.

Mafaaz earned his Derby berth by winning the inaugural Kentucky Derby Challenge Stakes at Kempton in Great Britain last out when trainer John Gosden added blinkers for his colts’ first start in over five months. Two for two in his career over synthetic tracks, it’s worth noting that Mafaaz will race without Lasix in his U.S. debut with regular rider Richard Hills in the saddle. He’s drawn post 5.

One of the more intriguing entrants in the Blue Grass is Charitable Man for trainer Kiaran McLaughlin. After breaking his debut in a Saratoga maiden event, Charitable Man wowed em’ with his professionalism in the G2 Futurity at Belmont which he won by a measured length. And then he disappeared.

He’s back now, and looking to rattle some cages while upsetting the earnings apple cart in the process. The Blue Grass will cover a series of first for Charitable Man as it will be his first start over a synthetic surface, around two turns and in nearly seven months. Alan Garcia rides from post 9.

Two looking to get their names back in lights in the Blue Grass are Patena and Theregoesjojo. Earlier this season, both were serious “wiseguy” types and mentioned on almost every Derby list you could find. Unfortunately for them, they actually had to live up to the hype and they couldn’t.

Theregoesjojo, who’s trainer Ken McPeek was white hot at the start of the year, could do no better than second in the G2 Fountain of Youth and third in the G1 Florida Derby while Patena looked terrible in the Louisiana Derby, his first start for trainer Rick Dutrow Jr. For this duo the Blue Grass is not only an arena to get some dough but a proving ground to show they belong with the best. Robby Albarado will ride Patena from the rail while Calvin Borel replaces Desormeaux on Theregoesjojo, who’ll break from post 3.

From the rail out, the Blue Grass field is completed by Join in the Dance, second in the G3 Tampa Bay Derby last out; Rushaway winner Cliffy’s Future; longshot Loch Dubh, who’s adding blinkers for this; G3 Sam Davis winner General Quarters and West Coast shipper Massone, second in the G3 El Camino Real Derby in his most recent.

At Oaklawn, the first four finishers from the G2 Rebel are back to duke it out in here. When it’s over we’ll see if Win Willy’s victory win last out wasn’t a fluke or if Old Fashioned will get his redemption. One thing’s for sure, the thorn in Old Fashioned’s side Silver City isn’t here and that should bode well for the former Future Book favorite.

Unlike his first two start of the year, when jockey Ramon Dominguez senselessly chased his speedy foe around the course, it appears that Old Fashioned may be able to actually control the pace in here or at the very least be able to rate off of a more reasonable pace. Terry Thompson, who rode Old Fashioned to victory in the first two starts of his career, replaces the overrated Dominguez in the saddle for trainer Larry Jones from post 8.

I want to make it clear that I have nothing against Win Willy when I say his win last out was a fluke but he did have everything his way. The fast pace obviously aided his chances tremendously and it was apparent that he took to the slick track that day much better than Old Fashioned did. Still, he’s now 3 for 3 on dirt and is by 2001 Derby winner Monarchos. Monty Berry returns for trainer McLean Robertson from post 9.

The entire complexion of the race, in my opinion, all depends on what Rafael Bejarano does aboard Papa Clem when the gate opens. From post 2, one would think Bejarano would have a tactical advantage and send his colt to the lead but don’t be too surprised if he takes a wait-and-see approach in regards to Old Fashioned.

After racing on synthetic surfaces in the first four starts of his career, Papa Clem gave a good account of himself his dirt debut when second in the Louisiana Derby behind the impressive Friesan Fire last out. He’s been training well for his conditioner Gary Stute since arriving at Oaklawn in the middle of last month and should be a great price as well.

Two to consider at long odds in this event are Flat Out and Poltergeist, neither of whom had the best of trips in their last respective starts. Flat Out was unprepared at the start in the G3 Southwest before recovering to finish fourth, beaten just over a length for second. Poltergeist was third in the Rebel after racing wide most of the way while appearing to have some minor difficulties with the surface.

As for the rest of the field, Captain Cherokee was fourth in the Rebel after winning his two previous starts; Ziegfield was second in the Rushaway last out and adds blinkers; Flying Private finished second in the Mountain Valley and Lane’s End in his last pair; Summer Bird broke his maiden in his route debut last out while Danger to Society will be making his first start for Dutrow.

For any questions and comments, email Anthony Stabile at VegasInsider.com today!