Welcome to “Anthony’s Eleven,” your source for anything and everything leading up to Kentucky Derby 135 on May 2 at historic Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky. In the coming weeks, Anthony Stabile, best known for picking 2003 Kentucky Derby winner Funny Cide at odds of over 12-1, will break down the top contenders for this years Run for the Roses, exclusively on VegasInsider.com, culminating on Friday, May 1st with an extensive analysis of every runner that steps into the gate for the most exciting two minutes in sports. Anthony will be covering the Kentucky Derby LIVE from Churchill Downs with all of the latest information. To purchase Anthony Stabile products, click HERE.

Breakdown

Rank Horse Jockey Trainer Next Race Pool 3 Odds 1 Dunkirk Garrett Gomez Todd Pletcher Kentucky Derby, May 2 at CD 11/1 2 Pioneerof the Nile Garrett Gomez Bob Baffert Kentucky Derby, May 2 at CD 9/1 3 Papa Clem Rafael Bejarano Gary Stute Kentucky Derby, May 2 at CD 47/1 4 Friesan Fire Gabriel Saez Larry Jones Kentucky Derby, May 2 at CD 8/1 5 I Want Revenge Joe Talamo Jeff Mullins Kentucky Derby, May 2 at CD 9/2 6 West Side Bernie Stewart Elliot Kelly Breen Kentucky Derby, May 2 at CD 17/1 (Field) 7 Hold Me Back Kent Desormeaux Bill Mott Kentucky Derby, May 2 at CD 24/1 8 Quality Road John Velazquez Jimmy Jerkins Kentucky Derby, May 2 at CD 6/1 9 General Quarters Julien Leparoux Tom McCarthy Kentucky Derby, May 2 at CD 17/1 (Field) 10 Musket Man Eibar Coa Derek Ryan Kentucky Derby, May 2 at CD 25/1 11 Square Eddie Edgar Prado Doug O'Neill Lexington, Apr 18 at Kee 17/1 (Field)

Just so you know, I really don’t have that much to say this week but that will change from here on out as we’re about two weeks away from Kentucky Derby 135!!!

Part of the reason I’m at a loss for words is because I’m so very confused, something that hasn’t happened to me on a Derby Trail in quite some time. There are just so many horses pointing for this race that don’t make any sense to me. I’ll be sure to remark on them in the next fortnight so you can pound out trifecta boxes with them. Just kidding.

Seriously, though, between the two Godolphin runners, Square Eddie (who we’ll get to a bit later), the Californians who haven’t tried dirt and the uncertainty at the bottom of the graded earnings list, we might not even know the full field until the day of the draw. Combine that with addition of two also eligibles and you’ve cooked up quite a mess.

Since we can’t worry ourselves with all of that nonsense, I’m just going to concentrate this brief edition of “Anthony’s Eleven” with the list itself as well as the final Derby prep of the year, the $325,000 G2 Lexington at Keeneland. We’ll start with that.

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Of the twelve horses entered, I can’t imagine any of them besides Square Eddie really having Derby aspirations though the Fever outbreak seems to be at an all time high when it comes to dreamers this season.

One thing Square Eddie doesn’t have to worry about is earnings, having won the G1 Breeders’ Futurity last season over this course, pretty much assuring himself a spot in the Derby in the process. A second place finish in the G1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile and a late season rest followed before he made his seasonal debut at Santa Anita in the G3 San Rafael three months ago.

After finishing second to The Pamplemousse, Square Eddie was being pointed towards a dirt race at Oaklawn, as he has raced solely on turf and synthetic surfaces thus far in his career. A shin injury kept him out of the Oaklawn race, and apparently off the Derby trail before trainer Doug O’Neill announced he would TRAIN Square Eddie up to the Derby

As crazy as one race off of a three month layoff sounds, training Square Eddie up to the Derby would have been career suicide and we now find him against eleven overmatched rivals in the Lexington. Edgar Prado, who has yet to secure a Derby mount, has the call in the Lexington and they’ll break from post 8.

Like I said earlier, I can’t imagine any of the other Lexington runners even thinking about a Derby try, but the three names I’ve heard mentioned are El Crespo, His Greatness and Jeranimo. If my calculations are right, $114,000 is the cutoff right now, which means Jeranimo would need to win, His Greatness needs a one-two finish while El Crespo needs to be in the Lexington trifecta in order to get a spot in the Derby starting gate.

As for their credentials, Jeranimo was third in the G2 San Felipe last out and sports just a maiden win on his resume, His Greatness was third in the G2 Illinois Derby last out and is wheeling back in two weeks while El Crespo won both of his starts, including the G3 Palm Beach at Gulfstream, on the grass. The fact that the connections of any of those three are even mumbling “Derby” is mind boggling to say the least.

With the Lexington out of the way, let’s talk about “Anthony’s Eleven” a bit. I’d like to start off by saying it should really just be Anthony’s Eight, as G1 Blue Grass winner General Quarters, G2 Illinois Derby winner Musket Man and Square Eddie are there to fill up spots. That could change, especially if Square Eddie wows me in the Lexington or one of the others trains brilliantly leading up to the race but I’m not holding my breath. General Quarters did pick up one of my favorite riders, Julien Leparoux, this week so that should help him a bit.

The way it stands now, Dunkirk should get in but who knows what can happen in the next fourteen days. Horses like Mafaaz, who has a secure spot earned in his Kempton challenge race win and Terrain, who has plenty of earnings to get in, are off the trail now but the medication can wear off at anytime and both of them could be Louisville bound in the blink of an eye. As long as everything is status quo, Dunkirk will remain at the top of the list. On 4/10, he worked a half mile in :48 4/5 at Palm Meadows.

After doing some research, Pioneerof the Nile is not the first horse to be so high on the list having never raced on dirt as I picked Colonel John second in last years Derby, so I feel a bit better. Besides, if he takes to the dirt the way the Californians he’s beaten have, this thing might be all over. If. On 4/15, Pioneerof the Nile blazed a half mile at Santa Anita in :46 2/5.

Papa Clem learned to rate successfully on his way to a G2 Arkansas Derby win over a valiant and courageous Old Fashioned, who unfortunately was retired this week. Still, Papa Clem is one of those West Coast invaders who’s raced extremely well on dirt in both of his starts and appears to be rounding into form at the right time. It would still be very hard for me to stomach Rafael Bejarano winning a Kentucky Derby.

Known for doing things his way, Larry Jones is doing just that by running his colt, G2 Louisiana Derby winner Friesan Fire in the Derby, off a seven week layoff. While his running style and pedigree should suit him just fine on the first Saturday in May, seven weeks is a long time for a horse that has never raced past 1 1/16 miles. He worked five eights in 1:00 2/5 at Keeneland on 4/14.

G1 Wood Memorial winner I Want Revenge is another who has sparkled since making the synthetic to dirt transition. His daylight score in the G3 Gotham followed by that legendary last-to-first-under-a-hand-ride victory in the Wood Memorial should make him no worse than third choice in the Derby. He’s already at Churchill and breezed an easy half in :50 over a muddy strip on 4/14 under regular rider Joe Talamo. Wood runner-up West Side Bernie is headed to Louisville as well for trainer Kelly Breen.

Hold Me Back closed well to be second in the Blue Grass and though the lone blemish on his form was a fifth place finish in the G2 Remsen in his lone dirt start, you could give him a pass as he did race four wide and ran into Old Fashioned when that one was on a roll. Hall of Famer Bill Mott will have him ready Derby Day and his running style suggests he’ll love the 1 ¼ miles.

Finally, G1 Florida Derby winner Quality Road is providing some intrigue to the trail as he popped a quarter crack after the Florida Derby that no one besides the barn knew about for over a week. We all know what happened to Big Brown when his quarter crack acted up before the Belmont but I think this situation is different as you have a horseman like Jimmy Jerkens at the helm as opposed to a bunch of magicians and pharmacy school drop outs. Quality Road worked five furlongs over the deep Belmont training track in 1:02 on 4/10.

For any questions and comments, email Anthony Stabile at VegasInsider.com today!