Editor's Note: Anthony Stabile, best known for picking 2003 Kentucky Derby winner Funny Cide at odds of over 12-1, will break down the top contenders for this years Run for the Roses, exclusively on VegasInsider.com. Anthony will be reporting LIVE from Churchill Downs this weekend and offering up his expert advice daily. To purchase Anthony Stabile products, Click Here!
Part I – Part II - Part III
We’re less than a week away from the 135th running of the G1 Kentucky Derby and like almost every other year we’re still not sure as to who will be in the starting gate come post time.
In most years this turmoil is caused by those at the bottom of the graded earnings list whose connections hem and haw until entry time before deciding what they want to do. This year, though, the one who is at the center of it all is Quality Road, who may actually go off as the favorite should he make it to the Derby.
In just four races, Quality Road has accomplished what it takes some years to do. After breaking his maiden at Aqueduct in his debut for trainer Jimmy Jerkens, Quality Road was second in an entry level Gulfstream allowance before Jerkens added Lasix in the G2 Fountain of Youth.
That day, Quality Road showed a new dimension as he rated just off the pace as opposed to setting it before drawing off to a convincing 4 ½ length win. One month layoff, in his two turn debut, Quality Road managed to stave off a furious far turn surge by Dunkirk to win the G1 Florida Derby by almost two lengths.
Unfortunately for his connections, Quality Road popped not one, but two quarter cracks since, the same injury that plagued Big Brown throughout his career, and his status for the Derby will hinge on how he rains early in the week. Should he make the Derby, he’ll be ridden by John Velazquez, who was aboard for his last two victories.
Though he is the only one of two G1 stakes winner we’ll discuss today, there is one thing that Quality Road has in common with the rest of the contenders that’ll be mentioned in this story – he’ll be his trainers’ first starter in the Run for the Roses. Of the group, that one that has accomplished the most besides Quality Road would have to be General Quarters.
Claimed out of his winning debut for $20K by owner/trainer Tom McCarthy last may, all General Quarters has done since is win the G3 Sam F. Davis and G1 Blue Grass. General Quarters shed blinkers after finishing second in a pair of minor sprint stakes at Tampa Bay Downs to win the Davis by a widening 3 ½ lengths before encountering trouble when fifth in the G3 Tampa Bay Derby.
A better trip couldn’t have been scripted in the Blue Grass as jockey Eibar Coa kept General Quarters out of trouble throughout before striking the lead on the far turn while on his way to a comfortable 1 ½ length score. The red-hot Julien Leparoux will be aboard in the Derby as Coa has opted to ride a familiar foe of General Quarters, Musket Man.
A winner of five of six career starts, Musket Man’s lone defeat came at the hands of General Quarters in the Davis when Musket Man failed to fire his best shot in his two turn debut and had to settle for third. In the T.B. Derby, Musket man didn’t have the best of trips and was further back than usual but managed to shake loose in deep stretch to run down the leaders at the wire.
Coa climbed aboard Musket Man for trainer Derek Ryan for the first time in his final Derby prep, the G2 Illinois Derby which he won in workmanlike fashion by two lengths at Hawthorne Park, the fourth different track he has won at.
Like Musket Man, West Side Bernie is a colt that seems to put in a solid effort no matter where he runs. Churchill Downs will be the seventh different strip he’s run over in what will be just the eighth start of his career, all of which have been a round two turns.
After breaking his maiden on dirt at Monmouth and winning the G3 Kentucky Cup Juvenile over the synthetic Turfway Park surface, West Side Bernie is winless in five starts. Don’t hold that against him though because in those five starts he’s managed to be third in the both G3 Delta Jackpot and G3 Holy Bull and second in the G1 Wood Memorial in his last start. Stewart Elliott, who rode Smarty Jones to a Derby win in 2004 rides for trainer Kelly Breen.
Another sporting a solid resume is Papa Clem. Trained by Gary Stute, Papa Clem closed out his two-year-old season with a two turn maiden win after a pair of off the board finishes in sprints to start his career. After getting beat ½ length in the G2 Bob Lewis, Papa Clem tried dirt for the first time in the G2 Louisiana Derby. Racing over a sloppy course in his dirt debut, Papa Clem set the pace before tiring to finish second while holding off a pair of late threats to hold the place.
In his next start, Papa Clem showed an ability to come from off the pace en route to a victory over a stubborn, since retired Old Fashioned in the G2 Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn Park. Regular rider Rafael Bejarano has the call in the Derby.
G2 Rebel winner Win Willy, fourth in the Arkansas Derby will not only be the first Derby starter for trainer McLean Robertson, it’ll also be jockey Monty Berry’s first foray onto racings’ biggest stage.
Before the Rebel, Win Willy won a couple of races on dirt and was off the board in a turf race before storming down the lane to also run down Old Fashioned over a slick Oaklawn surface. In the Arkansas Derby, Win Willy was caught five wide from post 9 while managing to close some ground late and would greatly benefit if the pace is hotly contested this Saturday.
Finally, a couple of real longshots will be looking to make their respective conditioners first brush with the roses a good one. They are Summer Bird and Mind that Bird. In his last start, Summer Bird closed from far back to be third in the Arkansas Derby for trainer Tim Ice and fellow Derby rookie, jockey Chris Rosier. Trained by Chip Woolley, Mind that Bird’s four wins have came over the Polytrack at Woodbine as a two-year-old. Calvin Borel, who won the 2007 Derby on Street Sense, will ride.
For any questions and comments, email Anthony Stabile at VegasInsider.com today!
