Editor's Note: Anthony Stabile, best known for picking 2003 Kentucky Derby winner Funny Cide at odds of over 12-1, will break down the top contenders for this years Run for the Roses, exclusively on VegasInsider.com. Anthony will be reporting LIVE from Churchill Downs this weekend and offering up his expert advice daily. To purchase Anthony Stabile products, Click Here!
Part I – Part II - Part III
In this edition of Derby Preview, we’ll be discussing five colts that started out their careers on the West Coast. So grab an In & Out burger and throw on a Dr. Dre and Snoop Dogg CD ‘cause we goin’ back to Cali!!
Historically, the Californian contingent of Derby runners has often been considered afterthoughts BEFORE the Derby was even run. Then, they were completely written off when all the racetracks were forced to switch to synthetic surfaces. But if you think you’re going to get off that easy this year, think again.
With the defection of Quality Road on Monday due to quarter cracks, it looks as if I Want Revenge will be the clear cut favorite when the field enters the starting gate. And long before he treated us in New York to a pair of amazing efforts, he was cutting his teeth out west.
After three third place finishes in sprints, trainer Jeff Mullins stretched I Want Revenge out and was rewarded with a wire-to-wire maiden score. A little less than two months later, he was beaten a nose in the G1 CashCall Futurity and found himself on the Derby trail.
After a third place finish in the G2 Bob Lewis, his first start with blinkers, I Want Revenge headed east to try his hand at conventional dirt in the G3 Gotham at Aqueduct. Sitting just off the early pace, I Want revenge turned the Gotham into a one horse show in the stretch, drawing off in ultra-impressive fashion to win the Gotham by almost nine lengths, a win that prompted IEAH Stables, majority owner of Big Brown, to purchase half the colt for a reported $4 million.
I Want Revenge followed up that performance with an even more impressive one in the G1 Wood Memorial, also at Aqueduct. After walking out of the gate and spotting the field close to a half dozen lengths under regular rider Joe Talamo, I Want Revenge was deftly guided through the field under nothing more than a hand ride to win by an easy 1 ½ lengths, stamping himself as one of the favorites for this years Derby.
Though he’s never run on dirt, it’s hard to argue with anyone that prefers Pioneerof the Nile over I Want Revenge as Pioneerof the Nile has defeated his rival the two times they met. After starting his career with trainer Bill Mott, Pioneerof the Nile was transferred to three time Derby winner Bob Baffert’s barn and hasn’t lost since.
A win in the CashCall was followed by wins in the Bob Lewis, the G1 San Felipe and most recently in the G1 Santa Anita Derby. A stone closer in his first six starts, Pioneerof the Nile has shown a remarkable ability to adapt on the fly, making solid middle moves in his last two starts when jockey Garrett Gomez sensed a lack of pace. Keep in mind that though he hasn’t raced on dirt, he did train over it earlier in his career with Mott.
Second place S.A. Derby finisher Chocolate Candy is another who’ll need to handle the dirt if he’s to have any chance in the Derby. A winner of over $500K on synthetic surfaces, Chocolate Candy had little success sprinting early on in his career before turning the corner once trainer Jerry Hollendorfer stretched him out.
Chocolate Candy was third in the CashCall before winning both the California Derby and G3 El Camino Real Derby at Golden Gate Fields in Northern California. Mike Smith, who shocked the Derby world aboard the 50-1 Giacomo in the 2005 renewal, will ride for the first time.
One of the more intriguing entrants in this years Derby almost has to be Square Eddie. After starting his career in Europe, Square Eddie was shipped to the U.S. for the G! Breeders’ Futurity at Keeneland last October, a race he won by almost 5 lengths. After finishing second in the G! Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, trainer Doug O’Neill decided to put him away and plotted a three-year-old campaign.
In his first start this year, Square Eddie finished second in the G3 San Rafael after which it was decided he’d try dirt in his next start. But it wasn’t to be as he suffered a shin injury that many thought would keep him off the Derby trail. O’Neill pressed on, however, and was going to run him in the Derby off of a series of workouts before deciding on the G2 Lexington instead. After making a spectacular run on the far turn that saw him grab the lead for a bit, Square Eddie tired to third. Corey Nakatani will ride him for the first time in the Derby.
Mr. Hot Stuff figures to be the Californian lost in the shuffle as he hasn’t accomplished anywhere near as much as his fellow Left Coasters have. After breaking his maiden three starts back, Mr. Hot Stuff finished third in both the G3 Sham and S.A. Derby for trainer Eoin Harty who also conditions this colts’ full brother, Colonel John. John Velazquez has picked up the mount.
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