Editor's Note: Anthony Stabile, best known for picking 2003 Kentucky Derby winner Funny Cide at odds of over 12-1, will break down the top contenders for this years Run for the Roses, exclusively on VegasInsider.com. Anthony will be reporting LIVE from Churchill Downs this weekend and offering up his expert advice daily. To purchase Anthony Stabile products, Click Here!
Part I – Part II - Part III
The field for Kentucky Derby 135 is finally set, but it doesn’t include the twenty horses we thought would be running on Saturday. In fact, three horses – Quality Road, Square Eddie and Win Willy – were declared from the race in the days and hours leading up to Wednesday’s draw.
It looked as if we’d have a Nick Zito-less Derby until Wednesday morning when he announced that Nowhere to Hide would run after the defection of Win Willy. After breaking his maiden in his fifth try at Calder in the last start of his juvenile season, Nowhere to Hide has run fourth in three graded stakes this year, the G3 Risen Star, G3 Tampa Bay Derby and G2 Illinois Derby. Shaun Bridgmohan has the call.
Atomic Rain was able to get in on Tuesday, giving trainer Kelly Breen a double shot at making Derby history as Atomic Rain and stablemate West Side Bernie will be his first two starters in the event. Still eligible for an entry level allowance contest, Atomic Rain hasn’t won since breaking his maiden at Monmouth Park last June. He was fourth in the G1 Wood Memorial under Joe Bravo, who’s back aboard for the Derby, in his last start.
Join in the Dance did just that on Tuesday, giving Todd Pletcher three starters for this years Run for the Roses after it appeared as if just six weeks ago that Pletcher, like Zito, wouldn’t be in Louisville for the big one this Saturday. A winner just once in eight starts, Join in the Dance set the pace and tired to be second by a neck in the T.B. Derby two back before tiring to fifth in the G1 Blue Grass last out. Chris DeCarlo will ride.
The second of Pletcher’s runners, Advice, is another who was on the fence until Thursday though his win in the G2 Lexington last out garnered him more than enough of those precious graded stakes earnings. In his lone start on dirt, Advice was fifth in the Sunland Derby two back with blinkers which were removed in the Lexington, where he came from dead last on the far turn to win going away. Rene Douglas picks up the mount.
The last of Pletcher’s trio arguably offers him his best chance at winning the roses this year and is perhaps his best chance yet at winning the Derby. His name is Dunkirk and in just three starts, he’s encountered more than most horses will in twenty.
In his late January unveiling at Gulfstream, Dunkirk broke from post 3 and found himself bottled up behind a wall of horses after breaking slowly. On the far turn, jockey Edgar Prado jerked Dunkirk to the outside before turning him loose in the stretch to win by a widening 5 ¾ lengths.
An entry level allowance race, his first start around two turns was next on the agenda and turned out to be more eventful than his debut. Breaking much better than he did in his first start, Dunkirk found himself seven wide on the first turn and five wide on the backside. Approaching the turn, Dunkirk joined the leaders and battled between horses on the far turn before unleashing a similar stretch run to that of his debut to win by an expanding 4 ¾ length score. After the race, Pletcher announced that Dunkirk would run next in the G1 Florida Derby.
In what would be his stakes debut, Dunkirk was up against it before he even stepped on the course as the Gulfstream strip was ultra-quick that day and speed favoring. As eventual winner Quality Road enjoyed a perfect stalking trip, Dunkirk had to once again make up ground, making up a number of lengths to draw even with the winner on the turn before getting turned away nearing the wire. Though he didn’t win, it was another of example of this colt overcoming adversity, something you don’t see often in a horse as lightly raced as he is. Prado will be back aboard Dunkirk in the Derby after having been replaced by Garret Gomez in his last pair.
Besides Breen and Pletcher, Saeed bin Suroor is the only other trainer that will run multiple horses in the Derby. The powerful Godolphin Stables’ private trainer will saddle both Desert Party and Regal Ransom in the Derby.
After starting their careers in the U.S., both colts were shipped to Dubai over the winter along with their more heralded, and more costly stablemates Midshipman and Vineyard Haven and were pretty much considered second stringers until injury knocked the latter pair off the Derby trail.
Though Regal Ransom was no more than a maiden winner, he managed to finish second to Desert Party, who won the G2 Sanford at Saratoga in just the second start of his career, in their first two starts this year at Nad al Sheba in a pair of minor stakes. Last out in the G2 UAE Derby, Regal Ransom took advantage of a speed biased strip that may very well have been catered to his liking to turn the tables on Desert Party, narrowly defeating him by a ½ length. Alan Garcia will be back aboard Regal Ransom while Ramon Dominguez will ride Desert Party for the first time.
Hold Me Back owns the distinction of being the only runner in this years Derby that will be saddled and ridden by Hall of Famers as trainer Bill Mott will give jockey Kent Desormeaux a leg up aboard the colt in the paddock at Churchill on Saturday. While he’s won three of four starts over synthetic surfaces, including the G2 Lane’s End two back before finishing second in the Blue Grass last out, his lone dirt start is somewhat of an eyesore as he finished a bad fifth in the G2 Remsen behind Old Fashioned in his final start as a two-year-old.
Speaking of Old Fashioned, though he’s retired, his stablemate Friesan Fire still offers trainer Larry Jones and jockey Gabriel Saez a chance at redemption after they received a ton of unwarranted attention after the unfortunate breakdown of Eight Belles who was second in the race last year.
Though he started his career with just one win in four starts, Friesan Fire turned the corner when Jones added blinkers, finishing second in his last start as a juvenile before rattling off three consecutive graded stakes scores at the Fair Grounds earlier this year, including the G2 Louisiana Derby. This Derby will be his first start in seven weeks.
Finally, what would a Kentucky Derby be with a longshot from Hall of Fame trainer D. Wayne Lukas’ barn? Flying Private, who is 1-for-10 in his career, will play the role this year. Second in the Lane’s End two back, Flying Private was fifth in the G2 Arkansas Derby last out and will be ridden by Robby Albarado.
For any questions and comments, email Anthony Stabile at VegasInsider.com today!