| 1 |
West Side Bernie
 |
Kelly Breen Stewart Elliot |
Though he isn't bred to go this far, perhaps his solid two turn foundation will carry him the extra eighth of a mile. Would like him more if he hadn't drawn so poorly and I'm not the biggest Kelly Breen fan. I doubt he can win but it wouldn't surprise me totally if he grabbed a share. |
| 2 |
Musket Man
 |
Derek Ryan Eibar Coa |
Wasn't a fan before the draw and I'm certainly not a fan after it. Will probably have to use some of his speed to avoid early traffic trouble and that doesn't bode well for him. Connections are a serious concern as well. |
| 3 |
Mr. Hot Stuff
 |
Eoin Harty John Vela |
I'm finding it tough to gauge this guy. Though he's been getting closer to winning the further they go he still isn't winning. Plus, you' don't know how he'll handle the transition to dirt. Another who wouldn't stun me if he grabbed a share and may have had an even better shot at doing so with a better draw, but I'd be really surprised if he won. |
| 4 |
Advice
 |
Todd Pletcher Rene Douglas |
Though he did pass the entire field to win the Lexington, there wasn't much in the race, save Square Eddie. His pedigree suggests he doesn't want to go this far and he'll be taking a huge step up in class in the Derby. I was impressed with him a bit immediately following the Lexington but not so much now. |
| 5 |
Hold Me Back
 |
Bill Mott Kent Desormeaux |
Has added 20 points onto his Beyer figures from last year but still hasn't broken 100. I'm worried that he'll find a ton of trouble heading into the first turn unless he finds some speed, which I doubt will happen. Another who might grab a share if everything goes perfectly and may actually be able to pull off a mild shocker should he handle the dirt and the race falls apart late. |
| 6 |
Friesan Fire
 |
Larry Jones Gabriel Saez |
One of the more intriguing entrants in Derby 135. Emerged from the shadow of now-retired stablemate Old Fashioned the further we traveled down this years' Derby trail. His stalk and pounce style is one of the most successful in the Derby and in all of racing. He's drawn well and should be able to work out a nice trip…..but he hasn't run in seven weeks!!! To put that in prospective, five of his Derby rivals have run TWICE since his last start. And, the fact that he doesn't have a 1 1/8 miles race under his belt bothers me as well. There is no doubting his talent, but he might have too much physically to overcome. Combine that with the scrutiny Jones and Saez will likely face in the 36 hours before the race concerning the tragic end Eight Belles faced last year and it complicates matters even more. |
| 7 |
Papa Clem
 |
Gary Stute Rafael Bejarano |
From a numbers point of view, the pros outweigh the cons but this colt really seems to be having a tough time since arriving in Louisville. The same way some horses head into a race going the right way some can go sour at the wrong time. I'm thinking that's the case here. Maybe it's too much, too soon for him or perhaps Stute is just doing too much with him. Either way, I'm not as excited about him as I was three weeks ago. |
| 8 |
Mine that Bird
 |
Bennie "Chip" Woolley Jr. Calvin Borel |
Woolley has only trained the horse for his last two starts, so he'll be looking to win his first race with the horse in the Kentucky Derby. You have got to be kidding me. |
| 9 |
Join in the Dance
 |
Todd Pletcher
|
It's no wonder Pletcher's Derby record is 0 for 21 when you're running horses like this. Will be part of the early pace and nothing more. |
| 10 |
Regal Ransom
 |
Saeed bin Suroor Alan Garcia |
I'll save my Godolphin rant for Desert Party. For now, I'm throwing this guy onto the "nothing more than early speed" pile and I plan on him staying there. |
| 11 |
Chocolate Candy
 |
Jerry Hollendorfer Mike Smith |
Has received plenty of attention throughout the Derby trail but I still don't get it. Someone had to be second in the S.A. Derby last out and Hollendorfer has done a great job in avoiding the big boys for the most part in order to get him here. |
| 12 |
General Quarters
 |
Thomas R. McCarthy Julien Leparoux |
In my opinion, this colt is one of the more lively longshots in this field. His three wins have come over three different surfaces and is bred to absolutely love an off track should it come up wet. Has tactical speed and should be able to work out a great trip from that post under Leparoux. |
| 13 |
I Want Revenge
 |
Jeff Mullins Joe Talamo |
With the defection of Quality Road, the role of favoritism will fall squarely on his shoulders. While they've done much better in recent years, historically, you want to steer clear of favorites. I'm not so quick to dismiss this colt however as he's shown a brilliance about him in his two dirt starts that could just be the start of something big. With that said, I'm not as enamored with him as some others. Can he win this? Absolutely, and he might do so easily, but I wouldn't engrave his name on the trophy and fit him for the blanket of roses just yet. |
| 14 |
Atomic Rain
 |
Kelly Breen Joe Bravo |
Didn't even get into the field until Tuesday and for good reason - he doesn't belong!! He'll serve as nothing more than an early pacesetter. |
| 15 |
Dunkirk
 |
Todd Pletcher Edgar Prado |
The day he broke his maiden, he made me say aloud "I think I just watched the Derby winner," something I haven't said in several years. He's done little wrong in such a short amount of time and is seasoned beyond his three race career. I really would have liked Gomez to stay here as I can't remember a top-notch rider like Prado go into a funk like this ever. A major, major player. |
| 16 |
Pioneerof the Nile
 |
Bob Baffert Garrett Gomez |
The fact that Gomez stayed ere speaks volumes as the sky is the limit when it comes to the talent possessed by a horse like Dunkirk. I'm sure the fact that he's won four graded stakes in a row on this horse helped, but I'm sure it was still a gut-wrenching decision. Post shouldn't hurt as he's raced a few times with success in his career. The fact that he's never raced on dirt is of course the biggest concern but he is the lone multiple G1 stakes winner in the field and they say the good ones can handle any surface. An obvious candidate to win the roses. |
| 17 |
Summer Bird
 |
Tim Ice Chris Rosier |
I'd say the post really hurt his chances, but did he really have any to begin with? |
| 18 |
Nowhere to Hide
 |
Nick Zito
|
Falls into the "why is he here?" category. He's won just once in eight tries and has never earned a Beyer figure higher than 90. |
| 19 |
Desert Party
 |
Saeed bin Suroor Ramon Dominguez |
Some feel that, in what's turned out to be a strange year that another one of the "Derby rules" will be broken and maybe it'll be Godolphin's turn. I agree with half of that theory and it's not the Godolphin part as I don't think they'll EVER win the Derby the way they are trying to do things. This horse is talented and had some success as a two-year-old in the U.S. at the start of his career but I don't think this is a good spot for him. |
| 20 |
Flying Private
 |
D. Wayne Lukas Robby Albarado |
It wouldn't be the first Saturday in May without a Lukas sighting, now would it? Can you believe they actually wanted to run this horse? I can't, but I'm not surprised because this goes to show that there isn't a cure for Derby Fever!! |