| 1 |
Big Drama
 |
David Fawkes John Velazquez |
Finished first in last six starts. |
Majority of his best work has come against Florida breds and sprinting.
Pedigree suggests he'll have distance limitations.
Sheds blinkers for this having worn them in all seven prior starts; may want to take off the pace which makes his rail draw a negative.
Making just his second start of the year.
Disqualified from win in Swale last out for bearing out through stretch; not a good sign for a horse making his first start off a layoff.
Gets new rider because Eibar Coa opted to ride Musket Man. |
| 2 |
Mine That Bird
 |
Bennie "Chip" Woolley Jr. Mike Smith |
Won Kentucky Derby by daylight last out, coming home final ½ mile in under 48 second.
Should get favorable pace set up in here.
Won over wet track last out; rain is possible for Saturday.
New rider Mike Smith won 1993 Preakness aboard Prairie Bayou. |
Ran career best speed figure in third start off layoff last out; major bounce candidate.
Both starts over dry tracks weren't that good; did he freak in the slop?
Besides Derby, he hasn't faced or beaten much.
Calvin Borel takes off to ride Rachel Alexandra. |
| 3 |
Musket Man
 |
Derek Ryan Eibar Coa |
Has won five of seven career starts and was third in other pair, including Derby.
Doesn't need to take his track with him as he's raced over five different courses and owns wins over four of them.
Raced well over wet track in Derby.
Coa stays here over Big Drama. |
Didn't really kick in through stretch in Derby; these longer distances are probably pushing his limits a bit.
How is he going to handle running back in just two weeks?
Still hasn't run a triple digit speed figure.
Price is going to be shorter than it should be. |
| 4 |
Luv Gov
 |
D. Wayne Lukas Jamie Theriot |
Not a single thing to like about this horse. |
Took him ten starts to break his maiden, which came over a sloppy track.
Eligible for entry level allowance contest.
Highest speed figure is an 87. |
| 5 |
Friesan Fire
 |
Larry Jones/Gabriel Saez |
Trip in the Derby was terrible; can't blame those who are willing to toss it out.
Won three starts prior to Derby, all graded stakes, with blinkers.
Stalking running style reminds me of 2003 Preakness winner Funny Cide.
Sire A.P. Indy won 1992 Belmont Stakes; pedigree suggests his handle added distance.
Handled wet track well in Louisiana Derby romp two back. |
Comes back in just two weeks after not running for seven weeks between his last two starts.
Best race was over sloppy track; did he move up because of track?
Grabbed a quarter in Derby and wasn't confirmed for this until Tuesday.
Like his :57 4/5 move before the Derby, that five furlongs in :58 2/5 is a little too quick for my liking. |
| 6 |
Terrain
 |
Albert Stall Jr. Jeremy Rose |
Is making his third start off a layoff, Like Mine That Bird was in the Derby. Ran career high speed figure two starts back and is rounding into best number.
Has won 2 of 3 starts over dry track with lone defeat coming with blinkers.
Finished third in Louisiana Derby and fourth in Blue Grass despite bad trips in two starts this year.
Jeremy Rose knows Pimlico well and won the 2005 Preakness with a remarkable ride aboard Afleet Alex. |
Highest speed figure is a 91.
Lone dirt wins came in maiden claimer and minor stakes at Mountaineer in sprints.
Leparoux chose to ride General Quarters over him.
Might just be a cut below the top three-year-olds. |
| 7 |
Papa Clem
 |
Gary Stute Rafael Bejarano |
Topped out speed figure wise two starts back before his fourth place finish in the Derby; can he achieve a new top fig?
Pedigree presents a nice blend of stamina and speed.
Rated nicely in last few though he has plenty of speed to be right there early on.
Lone start on dry dirt resulted in Arkansas Derby victory. |
Didn't like his workout earlier in the week at Pimlico and think it was unnecessary; perhaps the pressure of having a horse like this is getting to Stute.
I think Bejarano is overrated and hasn't had any success in the classics.
Don't like him coming back in two weeks. |
| 8 |
General Quarters
 |
Tom McCarthy Julian Leparoux |
Was reported to come back full of mud in his eyes and nostrils after Derby which almost certainly affected his performance.
Has improved vastly since removing blinkers.
Appears to have formed an "in/out" for pattern in his last several starts with the Preakness being an "in" race.
Leparoux is one of the best riders in the country and stays here over Terrain. |
Skeptical about what he faced down at Tampa and in Blue Grass.
He is his trainers' lone horse; McCarthy never faced this kind of pressure.
Not thrilled with his pedigree.
What if the Derby was just a case of him being a cut below the top ones? |
| 9 |
Pioneerof the Nile
 |
Bob Baffert Garrett Gomez |
Won all four starts, all graded stakes, including CashCall Futurity and Santa Anita Derby last out; since changing barns before gutsy second in Derby.
Has trained extremely well on dirt since arriving in Kentucky for the Derby; sports solid half mile in :47 3/5 over at Churchill prior to shipping in..
Baffert has won the Preakness an impressive four times with Silver Charm in 1997, Real Quiet in 1998, Point Given in 2001 and War Emblem in 2002.
Has evolved from one run closer to stalking type due to lack of early pace in pair prior to Derby; it helped him immensely over speed favoring Churchill strip Derby day and probably got him second money.
Handled slop well in conventional dirt debut last out. |
Though he's training brilliantly over it, he has never raced on a fast dirt track.
His highest Beyer figure is a 96 and he failed to improve off his synthetic numbers when he switched to dirt.
Seemed to have been getting tired in deep stretch in the Derby and a case could have definitely been made for him to come down; is this a bit out of his scope?
Two weeks may be asking a bit much. |
| 10 |
Flying Private
 |
D. Wayne Lukas Alan Garcia |
Both his sire Fusaichi Pegasus and broodmare sire Unbridled won Triple Crown events.
Lukas has this five times with Codex in 1980, Tank's Prospect in 1985, Tabasco Cat in 1994, Timber Country in 1995 and Charismatic in 1999. |
Eligible for entry level allowance contest; finished last in the Derby.
Highest Beyer figure is a 94.
Lone win came in maiden sprint. |
| 11 |
Take the Points
 |
Todd Pletcher Edgar Prado |
Gets Prado back who's a perfect 2 for 2 on him.
Adds blinkers, an angle Pletcher has had tremendous success with.
Solid five furlong drill in 1:00 over the deep Belmont Park training track last Sunday. |
Eligible for second level allowance contest.
Highest Beyer figure is a 99.
Both wins have come around one turn.
Never threatened in either graded stakes try.
Though he's had success with the angle, why is Pletcher making an equipment change in a Triple Crown event?
Pedigree says grass and not dirt.
Prado is slumping and hasn't had much success in this; Pletcher is winless here as well. |
| 12 |
Tone It Down
 |
William Komlo Kent Desormeaux |
Not a single thing to like about this horse |
Eligible for second level allowance contest.
Highest speed figure is an 87.
Couldn't win ungraded Tesio over Pimlico strip.
Trainer new to this stage. |
| 13 |
Rachel Alexandra
 |
Steve Asmussen Calvin Borel |
Is 5 for 5 in her starts around two turns, including wins in three G2s and the G1 Kentucky Oaks last out.
Won lone start over sloppy track with greatest of ease.
Has the speed to lead the way yet rates off the pace kindly.
Is 5 for 5 with Borel, who stays here over Derby winner Mine That Bird.
Gets positive trainer change to Steve Asmussen who won this in 2007 with Curling. |
She's a filly running against colts. It's as simple as that.
Coming back in just 15 days; two previous attempts at this resulted in losses.
Will be terribly over bet in the win pool. |