| 1 |
Chocolate Candy
 |
Jerry Hollendorfer
Garrett Gomez |
Will be making his third start off a layoff, one of my favorite handicapping angles.
Gets a key rider change to Garrett Gomez after wide trip in Derby.
Has trained well over the course since his last start. |
Still hasn't earned a triple digit Beyer Speed Figure.
Wasn't impressed with how he handled dirt in Derby; best running has been over synthetics.
Has been less and less effective the longer the distances get; doubt he wants this trip. |
| 2 |
Dunkirk
 |
Todd Pletcher
John Velazquez |
Broke maiden and won entry level allowance contest in first two starts of career impressively.
Finished a game second in Florida Derby despite speed biased Gulfstream Park strip.
Didn't seem to handle Churchill strip; many great ones in the past have fallen victim to the surface.
Has trained well since Derby; quick morning moves usually not Pletcher's style.
Is bred to love the added distance; broodmare sire A.P. Indy won 1992 Belmont, sired 2007 winner Rags to Riches.
Pletcher and Velazquez won this together with Rags to Riches, defeating Curlin.
Regressed speed figure wise in Derby off a top figure; could he be ready for a new best? |
Didn't win either of his stakes tries.
Bred to love wet track, yet didn't fire in Derby; could he be a cut below. |
| 3 |
Mr. Hot Stuff
 |
Eoin Harty
Edgar Prado |
Had a rough trip in the Derby, his conventional dirt debut.
Full brother Colonel John won 2008 Travers; bred to handle the distance.
Prado has upset this applecart twice before; Sarava yielded the biggest win price in the history of the race, paying $142.50 while Birdstone upset Smarty Jones' Triple Crown attempt at over 30-1 in 2004. |
Is eligible for an entry level allowance contest.
Three tries in stakes have been far from stellar.
Highest speed figure is a 96.
While Prado has won this twice, he's been slumping. |
| 4 |
Summer Bird
 |
Tim Ice
Ken Sesormeaux |
Put in a sneaky good late run in the Derby to be sixth despite racing very wide the entire way from post 16.
Gets a big rider change to Desormeaux.
Sire Birdstone won 2004; should appreciate the added distance.
Ran career best figure in Arkansas Derby when third two back and may have bounced a bit in the Derby; is he ready for a new top?
Addition of blinkers may keep him in the race a bit more. |
Eligible for an entry level allowance contest.
Usually not thrilled with making equipment changes in a race of this magnitude.
Late running style usually isn't successful in winning the Belmont.
Beat impossible Luv Gov when he broke his maiden. |
| 5 |
Luv Gov
 |
D. Wayne Lukas
Miguel Mena |
Sire finished second in 2003 Belmont behind Empire Maker.
Is reunited with Mena who was aboard for the colts' only win.
" Lukas has won four of these with Tabasco Cat in 1994, Thunder Gulch in 1995, Editor's Note in 1996 and Commendable in 2000. |
Eligible for entry level allowance contest.
Didn't make any impact in the Preakness when finishing eighth.
Has yet to earn a triple digit Beyer figure. |
| 6 |
Charitable Man
 |
Kiaran McLaughlin
Alan Garcia |
3 for 3 over conventional dirt; won two of those at Belmont, including Peter Pan last out.
Making his third start off a layoff.
Sire Lemon Drop Kid won 1999 Belmont; bred to handle the added distance.
McLaughlin won this in 2006 with Jazil; Garcia won last years' Belmont aboard Da' Tara. |
Sat perfect trip behind runaway speed in Peter Pan yet still was under whip urging.
Has raced just once around two turns, his only loss; last horse to win this with just one prior race around two turns was Colonial Affair in 1993; lacks foundation.
Has yet to earn a triple digit Beyer figure. |
| 7 |
Mine That Bird
 |
Chip Woolley Jr.
Calvin Borel |
Has turned into a different horse since resorting to his newfound late running style that won him the Derby and finish second in the Preakness.
Gets reunited with Borel who rode him masterfully to his Derby score.
" Sire Birdstone won this in 2004 so he should like the added distance. |
Most effective as a deep closer; horses with that running style normally don't win this.
Was aided by fast early fractions in Derby and Preakness; pace figures to be much slower.
Borel already has in his mind that he'll just sit a bit closer; do you really want to take him out of his new comfort zone now?
3 races in 5 weeks - could it be a bit much?
Won't have a workout over the course. |
| 8 |
Flying Private
 |
D. Wayne Lukas
Julian Leparoux |
Save the Derby, his last three Beyer figures have been his best yet by far; earned a 102 when fourth in Preakness after encountering traffic on far turn.
Bred to love the distance.
Gets a rider switch to Leparoux, one of the games' best.
Lukas has won four of these with Tabasco Cat in 1994, Thunder Gulch in 1995, Editor's Note in 1996 and Commendable in 2000. |
Eligible for an entry level allowance contest.
Hasn't hit the board in his three graded stakes try on dirt.
Lone win came in six furlong sprint.
Topped out last out; could he bounce?
3 races in 5 weeks - could it be a bit much? |
| 9 |
Miner's Escape
 |
Nick Zito
Jose Lezcano |
Bred to handle the distance.
Zito has had great success in this race, winning it in 2004 with Birdstone and with Da' Tara last year; overall, he's compiled a 20-2-6-3 record in the Belmont.
Reminiscent of last years' winner Da' Tara. |
Earned his highest Beyer last out, an 88; bounce candidate?
Maybe here to serve as a rabbit for his stablemate Brave Victory. |
| 10 |
Brave Victory
|
Nick Zito
Rajiv Maragh |
Closed well to be third in Peter Pan despite getting outrun in the early going and having his jock lose the whip in the stretch.
Broke his maiden in impressive fashion over the course.
Zito has had great success in this race, winning it in 2004 with Birdstone and with Da' Tara last year; overall, he's compiled a 20-2-6-3 record in the Belmont.
Ran best Beyer figure three starts back; appears to be rounding into a new top figure. |
Has yet to earn a triple digit Beyer figure.
Isn't bred that particularly well to get this distance.
Is 0-5 in graded stakes attempts.
Learn two turn race wasn't that good, though it was over Polytrack. |
