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At the Gate - Saturday
 
 
 

You probably don’t know it, but the first Breeders’ Cup Challenge “Win and You’re In” races in North America will be contested this afternoon at Monmouth Park.

The winner of the $250,000 Salvator Mile (G3) earns a berth in the Breeders’ Cup Mile, and the winner of the $750,000 United Nations Stakes (G1) earns a free ticket into the Breeders’ Cup Turf.

There are 62 “Win and You’re In’ races this year, and I bet you didn’t know two of them were already run.

The first of the 62 was the Champions Mile (G1) run at Sha Tin Racecourse in Hong Kong on April 26 and was won by Sight Winner, earning a start in the Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile.

The second “Win and You’re In” was the Audi Pretty Polly Stakes (G1), which was held at the Curragh on June 27.

The winner was Dar Re Mi, who earned a berth in the Filly and Mare Turf.

It might just be me, but it seems silly to already have a guaranteed starting berth in the Breeders’ Cup before the Del Mar and Saratoga meets even start.

It will be interesting to see if any of these winners of the “Win and You’re In” races overseas actually make the trip to Santa Anita this November.

There are ten more starting berths in the Breeders’ Cup up for grabs outside of North America.

In the meantime, both the Salvator Mile and the U.N. Stakes are good betting races, included here in today’s column.

To purchase my full card report for Belmont Park that includes analysis, selections, fair odds, and wagering recommendations for today click here.

Here is today's opener from Belmont Park to get our day off to a good start:

BEL Race 1 Clm $10,000 (1:00 ET)
#5 Goldispretty 10/1
#3 Debating 4/1
#1 Aly's Wheat / #1a Successful Affair 2/1
#6 Irish Majesty 6/1

Analysis: #5 Goldispretty broke poorly and was not a threat last out over soft footing on the turf and returns to the main track here. The gelding beat $14K claimers on dirt two back and was claimed out of that race by the Ortiz barn. The gelding does not have much of a turf pedigree and obviously could not handle the footing. Three he beat two back are back in this race and two others, the fourth and sixth place finishers came out of that race to win next out. He is reunited with Maragh and the 10/1 ML looks generous.

#3 Debating stalked the early pace while in between runners, got into the mix turning for home and flattened out in the stretch to finish fourth versus $10K starter handicap company. The gelding was a smart winner two back versus $16K non winners of a race in six months. The eight year old is back in for a straight tag here and he has been popular at the claim box, taken five times in his last ten starts and seven times since last April.

Wagering
WIN: #5 to win at 9/2 or better.
EX: 3,5 / 1,3,5,6
TRI: 3,5 / 1,3,5,6 / 1,3,4,5,6,8

Today's Featured Race of the Day from Belmont Park:

BEL Race 10 Suburban Hcp G2 (5:49 ET
#4 Asiatic Boy 5/2
#6 Rising Moon 8/1
#3 It's a Bird 2/1
#2 Dry Martini 6/1

Analysis: #4 Asiatic Boy ran big last out in the G1 Stephen Foster in a runner up finish behind Macho Again and a nose in front of multiple G1 winner Einstein. I was not sure how this guy was going to run last out and he ran much better than I thought he would. he has run well on dirt in the past including a runner up finish in last year's G1 Dubai World Cup behind Curlin and he won at today's distance three back in a tune up to this year's Dubai World Cup[, where he failed to fire in a disappointing 12th place finish. he bounced back last out and while he could regress in his second start since arriving from Dubai, he put in a good breeze on 6/26 and I think he is going to run another solid effort here.
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#6 Rising Moon was part of the pace last out, made a move from the outside and weakened late to finish third in the 1 1/2 mile G2 Brooklyn last out. The five year old makes his third start of his current form cycle for the Dutrow barn. The six year old has enough pedigree to handle the distance and checked in third in this race last year. #3 It's a Bird has won three of his last four starts, all with a 107 Beyer. He won the G3 Lone Star Park 'Cap last out in a game effort by a head over Jonesboro, who came back to win the G2 Cornhusker in his next outing on 6/27 at Prairie Meadows. He is a logical contender in here but the 2/1 ML sure seems to be on the light side.

Wagering
WIN: #4 to win at 2/1 or better.
EX: 4,6 / 2,3,4,6
TRI: 4,6 / 2,3,4,6 / 2,3,4,6,8,9

Today's Featured Races of the Day from Monmouth Park:

MTH Race 9 Salvator Mile Hcp G3 (4:50 ET)
#4 Kiss the Kid 15/1
#3 Solar Flare 4/1
#2 Smooth Air 5/2
#5 Coal Play 4/1

Analysis: #4 Kiss the Kid is an interesting longshot here as the six year old returns to the main track here after a sixth place finish in the Monmouth Stakes behind the winner Presious Passion, who is one of the main contenders in today's U.N. Three back this guy won the G3 Appleton before coming up short in the stretch in his last two starts. He has won 3 of 9 on dirt in his career including third in both the G1 Donn and G2 GP 'Cap last year. The barn is going well at the meeting and this guy figures to get overlooked on the tote here. If fits if he runs his best and we should catch a generous price.

#3 Solar Flare is coming off a career top when he Beyered a 111 beating three foes in the Frisk Me Now over the main track here off a three month break. He does not have a lot of room to regress off his last start and still win here but he has shown in his past races he can compete at a top level. He was a game second last summer in the G1 Suburban. A slight regression off his career top still puts him right in the mix here.

Wagering
WIN: #4 to win at 8/1 or better.
EX: 3,4 / 2,3,4,5
TRI: 3,4 / 2,3,4,5 / 2,3,4,5,8

MTH Race 10 United Nations S. G1 (5:20 ET)
#4 Spice Route 4/1
#5 Court Vision 3/1
#7 Presious Passion 9/2
#2 Strike a Deal 8/1

Analysis: #4 Spice Route comes in here off a good effort last out in a runner up finish in the G3 Louisville 'Cap going 1 1/2 miles. The gelding stalked the early pace, took over the lead and could not hold off #3 Brass Hat late. Two back the gelding returned off a two month break with a smart win in the G2 Elkhorn. He came up short to #7 Presious Passion three back in Florida but may be able to turn the tables here. He looks like he should get into good position as they enter the stretch and may get the jump on the late runners.

#5 Court Vision is a tricky read in here as he has come up short in each of his last four starts, each looking like he had a shot of winning. The colt should get some pace to run at today but I'm not sure this guy really want to go this far. #7 Presious Passion won this race last year in gate to wire fashion and it is no secret Elvis is going to use that same strategy here this year. He came back gamely to take the Monmouth last out after losing the lead, prevailing by a nose over the late charging #1 Banrock. If he shakes loose early and is able to set moderate fractions like he did last year he could prove tough to catch. The 9/2 ML looks fair enough, but it seems likely this guy is going to get more than his fair share of attention at the windows.

Wagering
WIN: #4 to win at 3/1 or better.
EX: 4,5 / 2,4,5,7
TRI: 4,5 / 2,4,5,7 / 2,4,5,7,8

Live Longshots: These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their trifecta and superfecta wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win-place wager.

Belmont Park
R1: #5 Goldispretty 10/1
R2: #8 Zip By You 20/1
R2: #11 She’s Prime 10/1
R3: #3 Wirebuster 12/1
R4: #5 Vertical Flight 8/1
R6: #11 Personal Shopper 10/1
R6: #10 Graceful Afleet 8/1
R7: #5 Solvent 8/1
R8: #5 American Dance 8/1
R10: #6 Rising Moon 8/1
R11: #9 Memorized 15/1
R11: #5 Chapin Beach 12/1

Good luck today!

  
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