The rains starting falling at the Spa during the sixth race on Thursday, and there is a 60% chance of a few showers on Friday, which should make the turf course less than firm for today’s $150,000 Lake Placid Stakes (G2).
That should be fine with my top pick Shared Account from the Graham Motion barn.
The filly caught a soft turf course last out in the Virginia Oaks (G3) and was beaten just a head for the top spot. Edgar Prado has the return call.
Motion announced yesterday that his ten year old gelding Better Talk Now will probably make just one more start before being sent to retirement.
The gelding was a good second in last Saturday’s Sword Dancer (G1) at Saratoga. The gelding has won more than $4.3 million in his career and won the 2004 Breeders’ Cup Turf.
His last start likely will come in the Joe Hirsch Turf Classic Invitational (G1) at Belmont Park on October 3.
He will be seeing to become the first ten year old to win a Grade 1 race in a flat race in the U.S.
The gelding has started in the Breeders’ Cup Turf five times, and I am holding out hope he makes it a half dozen this year
I don’t think Motion wants to see his gelding take on Gio Ponti and whatever horses come over from Europe for the Turf, but it would be nice to see him make it to the Breeders’ Cup one more time.
To purchase my full card report for Saratoga that includes analysis, selections, fair odds, and wagering recommendations for today click here.
Here is today's opener from Saratoga to get our day off to a good start:
SAR Race 1 Biogios Rose S. (1:00 ET)
#3 Sapphire Sky 6/1
#5 Doremifasollatido 8/5
#2 Karakorum Fugitive 3/1
#7 Ole Glamour 8/1
Analysis: #3 Sapphire Sky is back with New York breds here after finding open stakes too tough in her last two starts. She was fourth last out in the Serenas Song at Monmouth Park behind a nice filly in repeat winner Just Jenda, who won the Monmouth Oaks (G3) in her next outing on August 15. Two back our top pick tracked the early pace and came up short in the stretch in a seventh place finish in the Sands Point (G2) behind another nice repeat winner in Gozzip Girl, who won the American Oaks (G1) in her next outing at Hollywood Park on July 5. The cut back to one turn figures to suit ash she won the state bred Bouwerie three back at today's seven furlong distance. She is reunited with Johnny V., who was aboard for her last win.
#5 Doremifasollatido dueled for the early lead and held on gamely for the runner up spot in the NY bred Fleet Indian last out, beaten 2 1/4 lengths for the top spot while earning the top last out speed fig in the effort. The filly won a Grade 2 as a two year old and owns a solid pace profile throughout. She figures to get a good trip pressing or sitting just off the pace and should have the lead heading for home. I like just about everything about this gal except for her likely light price today.
Wagering
WIN: #3 to win at 3/1 or better.
EX: 3,5 / 2,3,5,7
TRI: 3,5 / 2,3,5,7 / 2,3,5,6,7
Today's Featured Race of the Day from Saratoga:
SAR Race 8 Lake Placid S. G2 (4:56 ET)
#4 Shared Account 7/2
#3 Consequence 4/1
#6 Mary's Follies 3/1
#5 Keertana 4/1
Analysis: #4 Shared Account just missed last out in the Virginia Oaks (G3), coming out on the wrong end of a photo. The filly's form has improved in her two starts since Motion switched her to the turf and she caught ground with give to it on both occasions and likely will again today with rain in the forecast. She has two sibs that are winners including one on turf and she looks like she is heading in the right direction for a sharp barn.
#3 Consequence faded to finish fourth last out in the off the turf Lake George (G3) which was contested in the slop. Two back she was 6/5 when winning the American 1000 Guineas and she did not catch a real tough group in that race. She has done her best work on turf and she has quite the pedigree, by El Prado out of the Grade 1 winner Educated Risk ($1.1 million). She should give a much better account of herself here with the surface switch.
Wagering
WIN: #4 to win at 3/1 or better.
EX: 3,4 / 3,4,5,6
TRI: 3,4 / 3,4,5,6 / 1,3,4,5,6
Live Longshots:
These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their trifecta and superfecta wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win-place wager.
Saratoga
R1: #7 Ole Glamour 8/1
R2: #3 Orrsville 8/1
R3: #1 Dp Facilitator / #1a Honor in Peace 8/1
R4: #9 Sweet On Bernice 10/1
R5: #5 Bordeaux Bandit 8/1
R6: #5 Sing My Song 8/1
R6: #9 Dynazaper 10/1
Good luck today!
