It is Travers Day at the Spa today, and although we won’t see Rachel Alexandra or Mine That Bird compete, the NYRA put together an outstanding 13 race card that features six stakes races.
We need to get up a bit earlier today as well. Post time for the opener is 11:35 ET.
The feature is the $1 million Shadwell Travers Stakes (G1), one of three Grade 1 races on the card.
Belmont Stakes winner Summer Bird is in the race along with Quality Road, who is the 8/5 morning line favorite.
Quality Road might have gone off as the favorite in the Kentucky Derby (G1) back in May, but a quarter crack knocked him out of action after a very impressive score in the Florida Derby.
The three Grade 1’s on today’s card will be televised live on ESPN during a 90-minute telecast that kicks off at 4:30 ET.
Thankfully, today’s Little League World Series is on ABC, meaning the telecast won’t be preempted by 12 year olds playing baseball this year.
There is plenty of star power on the card. Among the horses competing is Sara Louise in the Victory Ride Stakes (G3). She actually finished ahead of Rachel Alexandra last November at Churchill Downs.
Other top horses on the card today include Cocoa Beach, Indian Blessing, Munnings, Vineyard Haven, Big Drama, and Kensei.
Crank up the wagering account, it is going to be a long and exciting day of wagering.
To purchase my full card report for Saratoga that includes analysis, selections, fair odds, and wagering recommendations for today click here.
Here is today's opener from Saratoga to get our day off to a good start:
SAR Race 1 Alw $59,000N1X (11:35 ET)
#6 Separatist 3/1
#4 Cardiff Road 8/1
#3 The Plot Thickens 7/2
#11 Pegasus Tommy D. 4/1
Analysis: #6 Separatist was off a step slow last out when cutting back to 5 1/2 furlongs, gained between runners in the stretch and made a mild late run to finish fourth, beaten three lengths for the top spot. The third place finisher in the race was City Sneakers, who returned to beat state bred Alw-1 company in his next start on Thursday here. I like the stretch back out to a route here and he was a game second going lone two back which was his first start against winners. The gelding is by FuPeg out of a Deputy Minster mare that has dropped eight other winners including a couple of stakes winners, top earner Gratiaen ($288K). Tagg is having a strong meeting, hitting at a 25% clip. The gelding is bred top and bottom to handle a wet track, so if this comes off the turf due to rain he still fits well here.
#4 Cardiff Road is 1 for 18 in his career, making him tough to play on top. However, he had trouble in his last two starts, last out having to steady in traffic and two back was off poorly and had to steady in traffic on the turn. He is back with state breds here and his lone did come over the turf here. Worth tossing in the mix here if we see most of his 8/1 ML.
Wagering
WIN: #6 to win at 5/2 or better.
EX: 4,6 / 3,4,6,11
TRI: 4,6 / 3,4,6,11 / 2,3,4,6,7,11
Today's Featured Race of the Day from Saratoga:
SAR Race 12 Shadwell Travers S. G1 (5:46 ET)
#7 Kensei 7/2
#3 Warrior's Reward 8/1
#4 Quality Road 8/5
#6 Summer Bird 3/1
Analysis: #7 Kensei handled his first trip around two turns in fine fashion, taking the Jim Dandy (G2) last out here going nine furlongs. The colt pressed the early pace, took over the lead at the three-eighths, opened up a clear lead in midstretch and drew clear late. The colt caught a main track that day that seemed to be more favorable to outside stalkers and closers. His last loss came at seven furlongs in the Woody Stephens (G2) where he had a tough trip in a third place finish behind Munnings, who came back to win the Tom Fool (G2) in his next start. It looks like the colt should get a good tracking trip under jockey Edgar Prado and we should catch a fair price.
#3 Warrior’s Reward also exits the Jim Dandy and he did the dirty work, setting the early fractions and holding on well for the runner up spot despite racing against the track bias that day. He has an excuse two back in the Dwyer where he stumbled badly coming out of the gate as the 4/5 chalk. I don’t think we have seen the best of this guy and he showed he could handle a track with some moisture in it.
#4 Quality Road is going to be the short priced favorite in here. The colt was one of the early Kentucky Derby favorites after he won the Florida Derby (G1), but a foot ailment took him off the Triple Crown Trail. He returned last out in the Amsterdam (G2), and despite stumbling slightly coming out of the gate he was able to get a good position in the early going, came with a five wide run at the quarter pole, took over in midstretch and edged clear late. He set a track record in the process. Going from seven furlongs to 1 ¼ miles in his second start off a four month break could be asking a lot, especially at a short price. He will be tough to beat, but at 8/5 or likely less, I’ll take a stand that we can beat him for the top spot.
Wagering
WIN: #7 to win at 5/2 or better.
EX: 3,7 / 3,4,6,7
TRI: 3,7 / 3,4,6,7 / 2,3,4,6,7
Live Longshots:
These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their trifecta and superfecta wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win-place wager.
Saratoga
R1: #4 Cardiff Road 8/1
R2: #9 Sheryl’s Melody 10/1
R2: #8 Cautionary Tale 8/1
R4: #2 Jack Spratt 8/1
R5: #12 Spartan King 10/1
R6: #3 The Roundhouse 15/1
R7: #2 Trix in the City 10/1
R8: #2 Three Day Rush 12/1
R9: #4 Dyna’s Lassie 15/1
R10: #3 Tar Heel Mom 10/1
R12: #3 Warrior’s Reward 8/1
R13: #4 Don’t You Linger 15/1
Good luck today!
