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At the Gate - Saturday
September 4, 2009
By Mike Dempsey VegasInsider.com
R achel Alexandra is getting all the hype as she takes on the handicap division this afternoon in the $750,000 Woodward Stakes (G1) at Saratoga.
However, wagering on her at odds of 2/5 does not look very appealing, and taking a stand against her does not look like a wise move either.
Thankfully, there are eleven other races on the Spa card, including the $300,000 Forego Stakes (G1), which drew a full field of twelve.
The racing at Saratoga has been outstanding all meet, but Saturday’s card might be the best we have seen yet.
Most of the fields have ten or more betting interests, and there are plenty of live longshots throughout the card.
Below you will see a list of live longshots for today’s action, and it is a long one. I have 20 horses that I consider live longshots.
Those 20 are contenders I have ranked in my top four and are 8/1 or higher on the morning line.
That is close to two per race, meaning we have a great shot of nailing a few nice exactas and trifectas, and it appears to be a great card for Pick 3 and Pick 4 players.
There are just two races on the card where my top pick is going to be the likely favorite. That is the type of card I sometimes wait weeks for.
I won’t take a stand against Rachel Alexandra today, but I will take a stand against nearly every other favorite on the card.
That should make for a fun and profitable day.
To purchase my full card report for Saratoga that includes analysis, selections, fair odds, and wagering recommendations for today, click here.
Here is today's opening race from Saratoga to get our day off to a good start:
SAR Race 1 Hcp $25,000s (1:00 ET) #9 Americanrevolution 7/2 #6 Check It Twice 5/1 #3 Base Commander 7/2 #2 Kaper Lake 3/1
Analysis: #9 Americanrevolution gets the call in a tough opener. The gelding is making his first start off nearly a three-month break and shipping in from Calder. The gelding was bumped coming out of the gate, dueled for the early lead and faded to finish fifth last out in stakes company. That snapped a three race win streak, a pair at Calder and four back he beat similar company at Gulfstream Park. Romans takes over the training duties on this guy, who has popped a couple of quick works in the mornings since arriving in NY. He owns solid early and mid pace numbers and he is a perfect 4 for 4 at today's distance.
#6 Check It Twice won the What a Pleasure as a two year old, but has only made two starts since. He returned off an 11 month layoff last out for a $25K tag, not exactly a good sign. He ran a decent second and was claimed out of the race by the Jacobson barn that is 17% winners first off the claim. The colt obviously has some physical issues, so a tough read what we are going to see out of him here, but it is encouraging to see the new barn have him protected here in a starter handicap.
Wagering WIN: #9 to win at 5/2 or better EX: 6,9 / 2,3,6,9 TRI: 6,9 / 2,3,6,9 / 2,3,4,6,9
Today's Featured Race of the Day from Saratoga:
SAR Race 9 Forego S. G1 (5:15 ET) #2 Kodiak Kowboy 5/2 #10 My Pal Charlie 6/1 #1 Pyro 4/1 #5 Riley Tucker 12/1
Analysis: #2 Kodiak Kowboy looks primed for a good effort here in his third start of his current form cycle. Last out in the Vanderbilt (G2) the colt had to steady while in between runners in traffic on the far turn, was bumped in the stretch and made a mild late rally to finish third. The colt caught a main track that was playing to inside speed that day. The colt has a pair of wins over the main track here including a career top speed fig earned in winning the Amsterdam (G2) last summer. The colt owns a solid pace profile throughout with the edge in late pace numbers. I hate to go with the favorite in such a large field, but this guy looks like he is sitting on a good one here.
#10 My Pal Charlie cuts back from nine furlongs where the colt was third last out in the Cornhusker (G2) at Prairie Meadows. The runner up in that race was Shadowbdancing, who came back to win the West Virginia Governors Cup in his next start on August 1 at Mountaineer Park. The colt has run well in his last three starts going one turn despite not picking up a win. He stumbled badly coming out of the gate two back in the Met Mile (G1), making a good late run to finish fourth, beaten 1 ½ lengths by the winner Bribon. The winner came back to win an optional claimer on the turf in his next start. The colt has been working quickly since his last start over the poly at Keeneland. This colt is capable with his best and he might be overlooked on the tote here.
#1 Pyro figures to be tighter for his second start off a nine-month layoff. Last out he checked in second behind #6 Gold Trippi in the Marvin. The colt was outrun after breaking a step slow, bumped with a rival at the quarter pole, and could not hang with the winner late. The colt looks more suited to more ground than seven furlongs, but hard to knock the way the barn is going at the meeting (13-7-3-0). Anything less than the 4/1 morning line is not going to offer much value on this colt.
Live Longshots: These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their trifecta and superfecta wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win-place wager.
Saratoga R2: #10 Callide Valley 8/1 R2: #5 Ice Box 15/1 R3: #4 Cruisin’ntehbridle 8/1 R5: #4 Mesa Vista 8/1 R5: #11 Grand Piano Man 8/1 R5: #13 Crystal Moment 8/1 R6: #10 White Holiday 12/1 R6: #3 Copper Cascade 10/1 R7: #4 London Town 15/1 R8: #5 Map of the World 12/1 R8: #8 Redding Colliery 12/1 R9: #5 Riley Tucker 12/1 R10: #7 Past the Point 15/1 R10: #5 It’s a Bird 10/1 R11: #5 Perfect Easter 8/1 R11: #6 Whitley 12/1 R11: #8 Pressure Point 12/1 R12: #3 Spring Elusion 8/1 R12: #2 Miss Redoubled 8/1 R12: #5 Little Miss Julien 10/1
Good luck today!
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