|
At the Gate - Sunday
September 6, 2009
By Mike Dempsey VegasInsider.com
R achel Alexandra all but wrapped up Horse of the Year honors yesterday with her thrilling victory in the $750,000 Woodward Stakes (G1) at Saratoga.
After setting sharp early fractions, the filly held off the late charge of Macho Again to hold on and win by a head, returning $2.60 for the win.
It was her ninth win in a row, the last five Grade 1’s. In addition, it could be her last start of the year.
Belfair and TVG have spruced up the purse of next month’s Beldame Stakes at Belmont Park by $400,000 if both Rachel Alexandra and Zenyatta show up, but it seems doubtful the filly would come back off a four week break.
It seems even more unlikely that Zenyatta would ship to the east coast to make her final Breeders’ Cup prep over conventional dirt.
However, if Zenyatta owner Jerry Moss really wants to get Horse of the Year honors for his mare, the only way to do that seems to be to ship east and beat Rachel Alexandra.
She could face males in the Breeders’ Cup Classic, and if she were to win it, she certainly would garner some Horse of the year votes.
However, Rachel Alexandra, whether she races again this year or not, has quite the resume.
A perfect eight for eight record, five Grade 1’s, a couple of Grade 2’s and she beat males three times, including becoming the first filly or mare to beat older in the Woodward Stakes.
While it seems unlikely we are going to see the match up everyone wants to happen, there is some good news.
Jess Jackson said he plans on running Rachel Alexandra next year.
To purchase my full card report for Saratoga that includes analysis, selections, fair odds, and wagering recommendations for today, click here.
Here is today's opening race from Saratoga to get our day off to a good start:
SAR Race 1 Clm $60,000 (1:00 ET) #4 Coronation Day 9/2 #8 Awesome Actor 12/1 #1 Frame of Reference / #1a Frazil 5/1 #3 Dorian Will 6/1
Analysis: #4 Coronation Day won the state bred Virgo Libra last out going a mile for his first win on turf in his fifth attempt. The gelding has earned back to back career tops after Weaver put this guy back on turf and now this guy looks well spotted here showing up tagged for $60K. He ran and lost for a $50K tag three times in the maiden ranks so the return to the claiming ranks here looks more like the barn trying to pick up another win rather than getting rid of him. Looks like he can win right back.
#8 Awesome Actor tracked the early pace and came up short in the stretch last out in the mud, checking in third. The winner was #5 Bad Action, who returned to beat Alw-1 foes at Philly in his next outing on September 1. Two back this colt beat $35K non winners of two in his lone try on turf. He was claimed out of his last outing by the Klesaris barn that is 14% winners first off the claim. The colt looks more than capable of handling the stretch out to a mile, he has four sibs that have also won on grass including a couple of stakes winners.
Wagering WIN: #4 to win at 3/1 or better. EX: 4,8 / 1,3,4,8 TRI: 4,8 / 1,3,4,8 / 1,3,4,5,8
Today's Featured Race of the Day from Saratoga:
SAR Race 10 Spinaway S. G1 (5:56 ET) #6 Beautician 5/1 #1 Hot Dixie Chick 4/5 #7 Worstcasescenario 4/1 #5 Sassy Image 10/1
Analysis: #6 Beautician was no match for the chalk last out and needs to make up six lengths to turn the tables today. The filly has to check slightly while heading down the backstretch, made a quick strong move around the far turn but the winner just drew away from her. Her best shot today is if our second choice does not break well from the rail (unlikely) or gets hooked early in a speed duel (possible).
#1 Hot Dixie Chick is going to be real tough to beat here. She drew off very smartly last out and has earned triple digit Beyers in her last two wins, and we don't see two-year-old fillies do that very often. She has a nice pedigree, the $435K purchase is by Dixie Union out of the stakes winner Above Perfection ($381K). Her only real knock is going to be the short price, and I don't think we are going to see our fair price line of 6/5.
Wagering WIN: #6 to win at 4/1 or better. EX: 1,6 / 1,5,6,7 TRI: 1,6 / 1,5,6,7 / 1,5,6,7,8
Live Longshots: These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their trifecta and superfecta wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win-place wager.
Saratoga R1: #8 Awesome Actor 12/1 R2: #3 Dynazapper 8/1 R3: #3 African Diamond 8/1 R3: #2 Mr. Again 15/1 R4: #2 Spell 10/1 R5: #5 Karakorum Elektra 8/1 R5: #6 Meriwether Jessica 12/1 R6: #6 Sourceofthenile 8/1 R9: #4 Armstrong Mill 8/1 R9: #2 El Crespo 12/1 R10: #5 Sassy Image 10/1 R11: #3 Cat On a Quest 8/1
Good luck today!
|