Both of the favorites in Saturday’s Grade 1 races at Belmont Park went down to defeat, and we did not take advantage of it.
I am kicking myself for not rating Swift Temper higher than third in the $300,000 Ruffian Handicap. I really liked her win in the Delaware Handicap (G2) on July 19, but I thought she was coming back too quickly after her runner up finish in the Personal Ensign on August 30.
I was wrong, and you have to give trainer Dale Romans credit for having the mare ready to run such a big effort off just a two-week break.
Later on the card, the heavy favorite Gozzip Girl got a terrible trip in the $300,000 Garden City Stakes, checking in a troubled fourth.
My top pick Keertana went off at a generous 11/1, but was just no good enough after being part of the early pace, weakening to finish third.
The winner Miss World ($29.00) was making her stakes debut. It took her six tries just to break her maiden, then she beat first level allowance foes in her first start against winners.
She loved the soft footing and did not have an easy trip. She had to check while caught in between runners on the first turn and had to steady in traffic at the half-mile pole.
The latest weather forecast for Sunday suggests we might get to see the sun. I am guessing there may still be some moisture in the racing surface and the turf course figures to have plenty of give to it.
To purchase my full card report for Belmont Park that includes analysis, selections, fair odds, and wagering recommendations for today click here.
Here is today's opening race from Belmont Park to get our day off to a good start:
BEL Race 1 Clm $7,500 (1:00 ET)
#7 Debating 7/2
#1 Sonny's the One / #1a Goldispretty 4/1
#2 Arcata / #2b Irish Majesty 5/2
#8 Hedge Fund 6/1
Analysis: #7 Debating was off slowly and not a threat last out at Monmouth Park for this tag in his first go for the Brown barn off the claim. The stretch back out to a mile should suit and this gelding has run well over the Belmont Park surface, landing in the exacta in four of six trips, and if the track is still wet, that moves this guy up. Half of his ten career wins have come on off going. Brown does good work with recent claims and is 26% winners (with a +ROI) moving runners from sprint to route.
#1 Sonny's the One is also stretching out from a sprint. Last out the gelding made a mild late rally to finish third going 6 1/2 furlongs here for this tag. Four back he won for this tag going seven furlongs and has done some of his best work over the main track here. Entry mate #1a Goldispretty exits a NY bred Alw-2 optional claimer and his form has gone south since the barn claimed him for $14K four back.
Wagering
WIN: #7 to win at 5/2 or better.
EX: 1,7 / 1,2,7,8
TRI: 1,7 / 1,2,7,8 / 1,2,3,7,8
Today's Featured Race of the Day from Belmont Park:
BEL Race 9 Bowling Green Hcp. (5:15 et)
#1 Americain 6/1
#5 Colony 6/1
#8 Grand Couturier 5/2
#9 Gentleman Chester 4/1
Analysis: #1 Americain was up tracking the early pace and then had no punch in the stretch last out in the Sword Dancer (G1), tiring to finish seventh. It was his first go in the U.S. and his first start off a three-month break. Two back this guy won a Group 2 over soft footing and this guy should benefit from having some give to the ground here today. The colt figures to move forward in his second start off a three-month break and facing easier company here.
#5 Colony was part of the short priced entry last out in the Baruch, fading to finish seventh while his up and coming stablemate Justenuffhumor got the job done. Two back he finished a fast closing third in a paceless race in his U.S. debut, beaten just a length. He looks primed for a good effort here in his third start of his current form cycle.
#8 Grand Couturier checked in fifth last out in the Sword Dancer as my top pick. I thought he was ready fire a big one and he did not, catching some traffic in upper stretch. His last two wins were over ground with some give to it, but it does look like he may have lost a step or two since last year.
Wagering
WIN: #1 to win at 3/1 or better.
EX: 1,5 / 1,5,8,9
TRI: 1,5 / 1,5,8,9 / 1,5,6,8,9
Live Longshots:
These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their trifecta and superfecta wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win-place wager.
Belmont Park
R4: #5 Rogue’s Jewel 12/1
R6: #3 Punt’s Kitty 8/1
R8: #6 American Dance 8/1
R8: #4 Mucho Macho 12/1
R10: #5 New York Bobby 10/1
Good luck today!