After starting the week roughly on Wednesday, we rebounded nicely yesterday, with four winners on top on the nine race card, good for a +67% +ROI for the day.
Among my top picks yesterday was Jazz Hands ($10.80), who I fully expected would get bet down from his 7/2 morning in the finale on the card.
Instead he drifted up slightly, which turned out well as the race was rated as my strongest play ($$$$), which was the first top rated race I have posted for a couple of weeks.
We knocked down the exacta for $33.00 but failed to connect on the trifecta.
It’s not often we see a champion run in an allowance race on a Friday card, but that’s what we get today with Midshipman, last year’s top two year old.
The Godolphin runner makes his first start since winning the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1) last fall at Santa Anita in today’s third race.
Today’s race will be his first start on conventional dirt, and despite his lofty reputation and just a six-horse field, he is actually just the third choice on the morning line.
The morning line favorite is Storm Play, a four-year-old colt coming back off a layoff for trainer Todd Pletcher.
The colt won his first three career starts including the Best of Luck Stakes at Aqueduct last October.
The second choice on the morning line is Just Ben, who used a speed favoring racing strip to beat optional claimers last out at Saratoga.
I ended up going with the champion Midshipman, who certainly has been working like he will take to real dirt this afternoon, although I doubt we are going to see his 3/1 morning line.
To purchase my full card report for Belmont Park that includes analysis, selections, fair odds, and wagering recommendations for today click here.
Here is today's opening race from Belmont Park to get our day off to a good start:
BEL Race 1 Alw $44,000N1X (1:00 ET)
#4 Inherit the Gold 5/2
#6 Slevin 8/5
#3 Whirlwind Poppy 8/1
#1 Summer Share 4/1
Analysis: #4 Inherit the Gold checked in second as the beaten chalk over a sloppy main track at the Spa going nine furlongs. The gelding did earn a career top in the effort and the cut back here to a one-turn mile figures to suit. The gelding still seems to have some upside potential in just his sixth career start while our second choice seems to be caught in second gear with all those runner up finishes recently.
#6 Slevin was beaten just a neck last out in the NY bred Albany, 5 1/4 lengths clear of the rest of the field. Three straight seconds in stakes company and now he drops back in to the Alw-1 ranks should make him the play, the price is going to be light and he could regress off that career top.
Wagering
WIN: #4 to win at 2/1 or better.
EX: 4,6 / 1,3,4,6
TRI: 4,6 / 1,3,4,6 / 1,3,4,5,6
Today's Featured Race of the Day from Belmont Park:
BEL Race 8 OClm $75,000N3X (4:45 ET)
#6 Yield Bogey 6/1
#5 Duveen 8/1
#4 Inca King 7/2
#7 Fluke 2/1
Analysis: #6 Yield Bogey gets the call and I am hoping this guy gets overlooked on the tote after finishing behind a couple of these last out at this level. The gelding set the early fractions before weakening to finish fourth, beaten 2 1/4 lengths for the top spot. Two and three back this guy was in Grade 3 company after passing his second allowance condition over the turf here four back at seven furlongs. His three wins have come from sitting off the pace, and with other speed in here I am hoping Samyn decides to sit off the pace here.
#5 Duveen is a multiple Grade 3 winner making his second start off a 14-month layoff. The five year old was the beaten fav last out in JJ, checking in fourth, beaten 3 3/4 lengths for the top spot. The third place finisher Classic Campaign came back to beat $50K claimers at the Spa on Sept. 4. He came back with two works since his last start, which looks encouraging, and worth tossing in the mix here if he goes off near his 8/1 ML. Gray is a former assistant to Dale Romans.
Wagering
WIN: #6 to win at 4/1 or better.
EX: 5,6 / 4,5,6,7
TRI: 5,6 / 4,5,6,7 / 1,4,5,6,7
Live Longshots:
These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their trifecta and superfecta wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win-place wager.
Belmont Park
R1: #3 Whirlwind Poppy 8/1
R2: #7 Maggie’s Miracle 12/1
R3: #5 Knights Cross 10/1
R4: #5 Triple Tax Exempt 10/1
R6: #5 Treat Her right 8/1
R7: #8 Freight Forward 8/1
R8: #5 Duveen 8/1
R9: #6 Devilishameye 20/1
Good luck today!
