There are three graded stakes on the ten race card at Belmont Park on Saturday, with the two year olds taking center stage.
A field of eight two-year-old colts will go seven furlongs in the $250,000 Futurity Stakes (G2). The race looks on paper to be a showdown between the two likely favorites.
D’Funnybone was a very impressive winner in the Saratoga Special (G2), while Discreetly Mine, a half brother to Discreet Cat, will be facing winners for the first time.
In the following race, the girls take to the track in the $250,000 Matron Stakes (G2). A field of nine will go to the gate, led by the likely favorite Worstcasescenario, who was the upset winner of the Adirondack (G2) at Saratoga in her last outing.
If you are looking for an additional track to wager on today, you might want to head down to the Bayou.
There are six stakes on today’s card at Louisiana Downs including the $750,000 Super Derby (G2).
The Super Derby is a tough race and a case can be made for at least four of the seven in the race.
I am giving the edge to Blame, who won the restricted Curlin Stakes last out at Saratoga over a wet track, which was his stakes debut. The runner up in the race was Gone Astray, who returned to win the Pennsylvania Derby (G2) in his next outing on Sept. 7.
The colt just looks better with each outing and he is bred top and bottom to handle a wet track.
Massone is the tricky one in the field. The colt has made 14 starts in his career but this is his first on conventional dirt. He ships in from the left coast and interesting to see jockey Garrett Gomez comes in to ride.
Regal Ransom makes his first start since running eighth in the Kentucky Derby (G1). The barn is on fire and won four races at the Spa meeting with horses coming back off layoffs including a couple of stakes.
Blame figures to be a decent enough price and might be my single in the all stakes Pick 4 at Louisiana Downs.
In the other races of the Pick 4:
$150,000 Temperance Hill Stakes: A ten-horse field of sprinters starts the Pick 4 today. Cosmic draws the far outside post but looks like the one to beat. The colt was a smart winner last out at Churchill Downs versus Alw-3 optional claimers. The runner up and sixth place finisher came out of the race to win next out. The colt is bred to like a wet track, by El Prado out of the Grade 1 winner Heavenly Prize.
$100,000 Happy Ticket Stakes: Tuscan Chianti is facing winners for the first time and making her turf debut as well here. Last out she broke her maiden on the main track here, dueling for the early lead and drawing clear late. She appears to have plenty of pedigree to handle a turf route. She is by Roman Ruler out of the stakes placed Adored Slew ($78K) who has dropped four other winners, three of them turf winners. The Calhoun barn is 22% winners (with a +ROI) moving runners from dirt to turf
$75,000 River Cities Stakes: Category Seven is likely going to be the favorite in here, and while I was hoping we could find a longshot to end the four-race sequence, this mare may prove tough to beat here. She has landed in the exacta in 10 of her 11 trips on turf and has won 2 of 4 over the turf here. She was beaten a neck last out which was her first turf try on a surface other than firm, but the frontrunner #5 Ruling Class really had things her own way on the front in that outing, setting slow early fractions and holding on for the win.
To purchase my full card report for Belmont Park that includes analysis, selections, fair odds, and wagering recommendations for today click here.
Here is today's opening race from Belmont Park to get our day off to a good start:
BEL Race 1 Clm $25,000N2L (1:00 ET)
#3 Persian 7/2
#8 Lion Kingdom 3/1
#5 Galan Fete 6/1
#2 Jed Greeley 12/1
Analysis: #3 Persian raced wide throughout last out in a non threatening eighth against $35K non-winners of two on turf at the Spa. The gelding was claimed out of the race by the Dutrow barn that is 24% winners first off the claim. This gelding's top career speed fig came on dirt when he was second four back against $50K maiden claimers at Churchill Downs behind a repeat winner. I like the surface switch back to dirt and he looks like he catches a softer group here dropping in for a $25K tag.
#8 Lion Kingdom is coming off a sixth place finish against $50K starter allowance company in his first start against winners. The runner up in the race was Soda Pop Kid, who came back to beat $50K starter allowance foes in his next outing on Aug. 30. Two back he overcame some traffic troubles on the far turn to break his maiden against $35K maiden claimers over the main track here. He makes his third start of his current form cycle for high % connections.
Wagering
WIN: #3 to win at 5/2 or better.
EX: 3,8 / 2,3,5,8
TRI: 3,8 / 2,3,5,8 / 1,2,3,5,8,9
Today's Featured Race of the Day from Belmont Park:
BEL Race 8 Futurity S. G2 (4:43 et)
#1 Discreetly Mine 9/5
#6 D'Funnybone 6/5
#7 Thiskyhasnolimit 12/1
#5 Insightful 12/1
Analysis: #1 Discreetly Mine went gate to wire to break his maiden last out in his third career start, drawing clear to win by 6 1/4 lengths. The colt was the lone runner on the day that went gate to wire, catching surface that was kinder to outside stalkers and closers. The runner up and fifth place finisher came out of the race to graduate next out. Two back the colt set the early fractions and weakened to finish fourth behind the winner Dublin, who returned to win the Hopeful (G1) in his next outing on Sept. 7. The colt has worked sharply since his last outing and is a half to six winners including a pair of stakes winners, Pretty Wild ($398K) and Discreet Cat ($1.7 million).
#6 D'Funnybone rolled over his foes last out as my top pick in the Saratoga Special (G2) in his first start for the Dutrow barn. The colt earned the top last out speed fig in the effort. Two back in the Gomez he checked in second behind a nice runner in Jackson Bend, who came back to win the Dr. Fager and Affirmed in his next two starts. The colt is going to be tough here as he makes his third start of his current form cycle and his second go for the barn. I don't see a regression here but I do see a very short price.
Wagering
WIN: #1 to win at 9/5 or better.
EX: 1,6 / 1,5,6,7
TRI: 1,6 / 1,5,6,7 / 1,3,5,6,7
Live Longshots:
These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their trifecta and superfecta wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win-place wager.
Belmont Park
R1: #2 Jed Greeley 12/1
R2: #5 Magnification 8/1
R4: #4 American Border 10/1
R4: #6 Social Queen 8/1
R5: #5 Point to Royalty 10/1
R6: #7 Lemon Cream Pie 12/1
R7: #6 Victory March 15/1
R7: #11 Cardiff Road 10/1
R8: #7 Thisskyhasnolimit 12/1
R8: #5 Insightful 12/1
R9: #3 Touching Beauty 15/1
R10: #2 Globemaster 8/1
R10: #5 Too Amenable 8/1
R10: #1 Storm Hope 8/1
Good luck today!
