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At the Gate - Wednesday
September 30, 2009
By Mike Dempsey VegasInsider.com
K entucky Derby winner Mine That Bird appears to have settled in at Santa Anita in fine fashion and had his first serious work over the Pro Ride surface on Tuesday morning, going five furlongs 1:01.80 as he gets set for his next start, the $350,000 Goodwood Stakes (G1) Oct. 10.
The Goodwood Stakes is a Breeders’ Cup “Win and You’re In” race and the winner will be automatically eligible to run in the $5 million Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1) Nov. 7.
Not that Mine That Bird needs to win to get into the Classic. The “Win and You’re In” series this year has far too many races, and if you ask me needs to be totally revamped or perhaps even taken out with the trash.
All you have to do is look at Super Saturday at Belmont Park on Saturday. There are five Grade 1 races and none are “Win and You’re In” races.
However, three races at Ascot last weekend were. Does that make any sense?
Back to the Bird.
The Derby winner will get a good test in the Goodwood. Among his likely foes are Chocolate Candy, Colonel John, Parading, Tiago and Richard’s Kid.
He won four straight over poly track at Woodbine last year, which bodes well for the gelding as he looks to cap off his year with a Breeders’ Cup Classic win.
The Goodwood is one of ten “Win and You’re In” races on Oct. 10.
We are going to have plenty of betting action over the next six weeks. I can always take a day off sometime in December.
I like today’s card at Belmont Park. I am hoping the weather improves and we are back on the turf.
To purchase my full card report for Belmont Park that includes analysis, selections, fair odds, and wagering recommendations for today, click here.
Here is today's opening race from Belmont Park to get our day off to a good start:
BEL Race 1 Alw $45,000N1X (1:00 et) #3 Wild Poppy 3/1 #8 More to the Story 5/1 #2 Tempest Storm 4/1 #6 Granted Tiger 5/2
Analysis: #3 Wild Poppy returns off a two month break after breaking her maiden last out here at today's distance. The filly has shown improvement in each outing and looks capable of winning in this spot. She was a good second in her debut in a race that produced four next out winners. Her first turf try came in her second start, a fourth place finish going long over a good turf course here. Two came out of that race to win next out including the winner Queen of Hearts, who won the Sign Stallions in her next outing then ran a good third in the Glen Falls (G3) in her most recent outing. She has the pedigree to be a nice one, by El Prado out of the Grade 1 winner Flanders ($805K), who also dropped Surfside ($1.8 million).
#8 More to the Story was not a threat last out in a stake on the turf and drops into the allowance ranks here. Two back this gal went gate to wire to break her maiden here going six furlongs in a good looking effort. She is better than she showed last out and this looks like a good spot for the $625K purchase. She is reunited with the barn's go to guy Garcia, who was aboard for her maiden score.
Wagering WIN: #3 to win at 2/1 or better. EX: 3,8 / 2,3,6,8 TRI: 3,8 / 2,3,6,8 / 1,2,3,6,8
Today's Featured Race of the Day from Belmont Park:
BEL Race 8 Mr. Right S. (4:45 et) #3 Rising Moon 3/1 #1 Honour Devil 7/2 #8 Coal Play 2/1 #4 Mint Lane 8/1
Analysis: #3 Rising Moon faded to finish eighth last out in the Sword Dancer (G1) and returns to the main track here and drops into a more suitable spot after taking on graded stakes company in each of his last three starts. Two back he came with a mild late run to finish third in the Met Mile (G1) and three back ran third in the Brooklyn (G2). Two of his four career wins have come over the main track here and Ramon takes the call for the Dutrow barn that is 33% winners (with a +ROI) moving runners from turf to dirt.
#1 Honour Devil is returning off a six month layoff while making his U.S. debut here. The five year old won the UAE Derby (G2) and UAE 2000 Guineas (G3) last year. Lasix is added to the mix here and this guy has been working quickly in the mornings for the McLaughlin barn that is 20% winners with horses coming back off a +180 day layoff. He looks like he is fit and ready to fire here.
Wagering WIN: #3 to win at 5/2 or better. EX: 1,3 / 1,3,4,8 TRI: 1,3 / 1,3,4,8 / 1,3,4,7,8
Live Longshots: These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their trifecta and superfecta wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win-place wager.
Belmont Park R3: #1 Budget 12/1 R4: #3 Jaystone 12/1 R5: #9 Skyebay 15/1 R5: #12 Missile 10/1 R6: #13 Delta Miner 8/1 R7: #6 Life At Ten 8/1 R8: #4 Mint Lane 8/1 R9: #2 Naughty Kitty 8/1 R9: #11 Belonged to Sy 10/1
Good luck today!
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