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At the Gate - Thursday
October 1, 2009
By Mike Dempsey VegasInsider.com
W e started the week with three winners on top in seven races at Belmont Park, with a couple of races washed off the turf.
The winners were chalky, returning $4.40, $4.50, and $5.90.
Thursday’s card looks more promising, and the weather should cooperate as well, as the sun will come out and hopefully will firm up the turf course, which was labeled yielding yesterday.
Five of the nine races on today’s card are schedule for the grass.
The feature today is a third level allowance race on the turf which might as well be a stake. The likely favorite is Atticus Kristy, a multiple stakes winner who has earned $774,263 in his career, which spans 63 starts.
Five of the seven in the race are stakes winners, including T.D. Vance, who is making his first start since November of ’07.
The five time stakes winner has earned over a half million in his career and it will be interesting to see how he runs for hall of fame trainer Bill Mott off nearly a two year hiatus.
The third race on the card is the $65,000 Quick Mischief Stakes, which drew a field of six.
Spritely looks well spotted for trainer Todd Pletcher as she drops out of graded stakes company. She is going to end up a short price in the race, and the likely second choice in the race Sea Chanter will also be saddled by Pletcher.
To purchase my full card report for Belmont Park that includes analysis, selections, fair odds, and wagering recommendations for today, click here.
Here is today's opening race from Belmont Park to get our day off to a good start:
BEL Race 1 Alw $50,000s (1:00 ET) #8 Emma's Posse 9/2 #4 Elixir 4/1 #3 Immortal Eyes 3/1 #2 Half a Note 7/2
Analysis: #8 Emma's Posse returns to dirt here after having to steady while in between foes in upper stretch and fading to finish tenth in his turf debut going a mile. He was claimed out of the race by the Galluscio barn that is 12% winners first off the claim. Two back he caught mud at the Spa, making a mild late run to finish fourth behind a couple of these. The colt gets blinkers added today and he has shown some tactical speed in the past and with the hood added should get a good trip breaking from the outside. The pace should be solid and that looks like it will set things up nicely for him here.
#4 Elixir came off a two-month break, set the early fractions and weakened to finish fifth last out at the Spa. The barn was frigid at the Spa meeting (1 for 48) and has bounced back nicely here so far (16-4-4-2). The runner up in his last start was Soda Pop Kid, who came back to beat $50K starter allowance company and then beat Alw-1 foes in his next two starts. The gelding owns solid early and mid pace numbers and the cut back to six furlongs should suit as he posted numbers two and three back at the distance that are good enough to beat this group.
Wagering WIN: #8 to win at 3/1 or better. EX: 4,8 / 2,3,4,8 TRI: 4,8 / 2,3,4,8 / 1,2,3,4,8
Today's Featured Race of the Day from Belmont Park:
BEL Race 8 OClm $75,000N3X (4:45 ET) #2 Atticus Kristy 5/2 #3 T.D. Vance 4/1 #5 Our Friend Harvey 4/1 #6 Papa Bear 3/1
Analysis: #2 Atticus Kristy is having a productive campaign as a eight year old, landing in the exacta in 7 of 8 starts. The Pino barn claimed this veteran turf sprinter for $50K and he has not missed a beat with four good efforts in stakes company, then a good second last out when shipped to Woodbine to faker this level. The gelding has 63 starts on his resume but has never been on the Belmont green in the afternoon. Pino does not ship north here very often, just 0 for 8 going back five years. The gelding looks like he is going to be tough in this spot as the likely favorite.
#3 T.D. Vance has not been seen since Nov. of '07. The multiple stakes winner earned a half million under the care of the Motion barn and now goes for Mott off the long layoff. The gelding has run well off the bench in the past, taking the Troy Stakes at the Spa back in '07 off a nine month layoff.
Wagering WIN: #2 to win at 2/1 or better. EX: 2,3 / 2,3,5,6 TRI: 2,3 / 2,3,5,6 / 2,3,4,5,6
Live Longshots: These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their trifecta and superfecta wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win-place wager.
Belmont Park R2: #8 Powder Princess 8/1 R3: #3 Fascinatin’ Rhythm 10/1 R4: #8 American Veteran 8/1 R4: #5 Rapide One 10/1 R5: #11 Up Up Away 8/1 R6: #6 Actor’s Groove 10/1 R6: #1 Veritable 8/1 R7: #5 Seattle Brew 12/1 R9: #9 Michele the Great 20/1
Good luck today!
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