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At the Gate - Wednesday
October 7, 2009
By Mike Dempsey VegasInsider.com
W eather wreaked havoc on Belmont Park all weekend, washing the stakes races off the turf on Sunday, including two turf races for juveniles that were part of the Breeders’ Cup Challenge “Win and You’re In” series.
The Kelso Handicap (G3) was reduced to a field of three, the Ms Grillo Stakes for two-year-old fillies had just a trio of runners, and the Pilgrim Stakes (G3) had a compact field of five.
The rains turned what looked like a solid betting card into a mess, and I sat on my hands throughout most of the day.
Mother Nature might make another appearance this afternoon, as there is an 80% chance of rain in the morning, and 20 to 30 mph winds forecast for the afternoon, with gusts possibly hitting 40 mph.
It’s days like this where jockeys really earn their money.
Keeneland opens on Friday, and both of the opening day stakes have large fields.
The $250,000 Phoenix Stakes (G3) drew a field of ten sprinters including Ez Dreamer, Capt. Candyman Can, Fatal Bullet, and My Pal Charlie.
The $500,000 Darley Alcibades (G1) drew a field of 12 two-year-old fillies.
Among those in the field include Arlington Washington Lassie (G3) winner She Be Wild and Spinaway (G1) runner up Beautician.
Both the Phoenix and Alcibades are “Win and You’re In” races.
During Keeneland’s 17 day meeting there are nine Breeders’ Cup Challenge races.
More on Keeneland later this week, and I will be providing full card analysis for the entire Keeneland meeting.
I can get a nap in after the Breeders’ Cup.
To purchase my full card report for Belmont Park that includes analysis, selections, fair odds, and wagering recommendations for today, click here.
Here is today's opening race from Belmont Park to get our day off to a good start:
BEL Race 1 Clm $25,000B (1:00 ET) #2 Remarkable Storm 6/1 #5 Winthrop House 9/5 #10 Pacific Star 5/2 #4 Beso Del Sur 5/1
Analysis: I'm guessing rainy and very windy means we will be off the turf. #2 Remarkable Storm makes his first start off a two month freshening and drops into a softer spot. The gelding beat state bred Alw-1 company back in May on the turf off a similar break when he was making his first start for the Parisella barn, then things went south. The gelding has a couple of decent works on the morning tab since his last start and he landed in the money in his three previous starts on a wet track. The barn is live when Ramon gets the call (28% winners together).
#5 Winthrop House was a game winner last out on the turf versus $35K non-winners of two. The colt had to steady sharply between foes on the far turn. The colt has done his best running on turf but he did run a game second in his debut on dirt and he has a solid off track pedigree.
Wagering WIN: #2 to win at 5/2 or better. EX: 2,5 / 2,4,5,10 TRI: 2,5 / 2,4,5,10 / 2,4,5,7,10
Today's Featured Race of the Day from Belmont Park:
BEL Race 8 Alw $46,000N1X (4:45 ET) #4 Hoopoe 3/1 #2 Stevil 5/2 #3 Success Fee 5/1 #6 Repenthouse 6/1
Analysis: #4 Hoopoe cuts back from a nine-furlong two-turn race last out where he pressed the early pace and weakened to finish fourth. The colt has come back with a pair of quick works and blinkers added to the mix. The colt went well in both of his starts over a wet track. The colt has a big off track pedigree, by Birdstone out of a Seattle Slew mare.
#2 Stevil earned a career top last out in the slop here against $50K starter allowance company in his first start for the Barbara barn off the claim. This guy mixed it up on the Triple Crown Trail last year but is 0 for 13 at this condition. Was it the off track or the new barn that jumped him up last out? Does he regress off that effort? A tough call here, but he has done some of his best running over the main track here and if the track comes up wet that seems like it should bode well for the gelding.
Wagering WIN: #4 to win at 2/1 or better. EX: 2,4 / 2,3,4,6 TRI: 2,4 / 2,3,4,6 / 2,3,4,6,7
Live Longshots: These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their trifecta and superfecta wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win-place wager.
Belmont Park
R5: #3 Maria’s Jubilee 15/1 R6: #4 Silenced 10/1 R7: #8 Triple Honor 8/1 R9: #14 Macho Mambo 10/1 R9: #9 Delta Miner 8/1
Good luck today!
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