Keeneland’s fall meeting gets underway with an outstanding ten race card on Friday, chock full of large fields and a couple of graded stakes.
I have pretty much shunned tracks with synthetic surfaces, rarely wagering on the Southern California tracks, and tracks like Woodbine, Presque Isle and Turfway Park are no longer on my radar.
Keeneland has been different, as I have had a great deal of success since they installed polytrack.
The racetrack was known as a speed favoring racing strip when it was made of conventional dirt, and after poly was installed, the makeup of the track profile completely changed, becoming a surface that favored outside stalkers and closers.
During the first meet with poly I watched a few of my speed horses quit badly on opening day, and quickly adjusted my handicapping, which led to my best Keeneland meeting ever.
The fact that it is hard to win on the front end is no longer a secret, and we’ll need to come up with a few other angles to show a profit during this meeting.
The opening three days of the meeting feature eight Breeders’ Cup Challenge “Win and You’re In” races.
There are 19 stakes overall during the meeting, Most of the key stakes take place this weekend and will serve as final preps for the Breeders’ Cup.
There are two stakes on today’s card, five on Saturday, and two more on Sunday.
It won’t just be the stakes that offer great wagering value. On today’s opening day card, the smallest field has nine runners, and seven of the ten races have full fields of twelve.
It’s going to be a fun meet, and I’ll be proving my full card analysis and selections throughout the meeting.
To purchase my full card report for Belmont Park and Keeneland that includes analysis, selections, fair odds, and wagering recommendations for today click here.
Here is today's opening race from Belmont Park to get our day off to a good start:
BEL Race 1 OClm $75,000N3X (1:00 ET)
#6 Expansion 3/1
#5 Slambino 9/2
#7 Nergal 2/1
#2 Broad River 5/1
Analysis: #6 Expansion made a good late rally to get up late and beat Alw-2 optional claimers in a sharp effort. The fifth and sixth place finishers in the race both came back to beat optional claimers in their next starts. The colt has landed in the exacta in 9 of 12 trips on the turf and has handled ground with some give to it.
#5 Slambino stumbled coming out of the gate and came with a five wide run in the stretch to finish up well for second last out going a mile here. The colt is just 1 for 10 on turf in his career but is making his third start off the bench and was facing tougher than these last fall.
Wagering
WIN: #6 to win at 2/1 or better.
EX: 5,6 / 2,5,6,7
TRI: 5,6 / 2,5,6,7 / 1,2,5,6,7
Today's Featured Race of the Day from Belmont Park:
BEL Race 8 Clm $30,000 (4:45 ET)
#3 Marina Market 10/1
#5 Stungbythestorm 3/1
#6 Fearless Vision 2/1
#7 Richland Creek 5/1
Analysis: #3 Marina Market did not fire last out in the mud at the Spa but very few of the Levine runners fired their best at the meeting. The gelding was claimed out of the race by the Arroyo barn, who must really like this guy because he has reclaimed him twice. Two back the gelding was a good second for a $20K tag for his current connections. The gelding is reunited with CVel who was aboard for his last win and I give this guy a shot of bouncing back with a better effort here at a decent price.
#5 Stungbythestorm faded to finish seventh last out against Alw-2 optional claimers and drops into a better spot here for a straight tag. The third place finisher in his last outing was Ea, who came back to beat Alw-2 optional claimers here yesterday. Two back in July this guy beat Alw-3 optional claimers. He owns back numbers that are a good fit and he looks like he can bounce back with a better effort in this spot.
Wagering
WIN: #3 to win at 9/2 or better.
EX: 3,5 / 3,5,6,7
TRI: 3,5 / 3,5,6,7 / 2,3,5,6,7
Today's Featured Race of the Day from Keeneland:
KEE Race 9 Alcibades S. G1 (6:15 ET)
#5 Negligee 12/1
#4 Beautician 5/2
#3 She Be Wild 3/1
#9 Amen Hallelujah 6/1
Analysis: #5 Negligee was scratched out of the Ms Grillo last weekend as my top pick. She made her first two career starts sprinting on poly at Woodbine. She broke her maiden in her debut, then was a game second in the Ontario Debutante, beaten a half length for the top spot. The winner of the race was Franny Freud, who returned to win the NY bred Lady Fingers at Finger Lakes on Sept. 7. Vertical Vision also exited the Ontario to win next out, taking the Prairie Meadows Debutante on Sept. 18. She drilled a bullet over at Belmont Park the day after scratching out of the stake. She is out of the stakes winner Naughty Notions ($109K) and is a half to four winners, three winners of $130K+.
#4 Beautician was a good second last out behind Hot Dixie Chic, unable to match strides with that talented filly in the stretch and well clear of the rest of the field. Two back she also could not get to the Chic while better than six lengths clear of the rest of the field. She looks like she has the pedigree to handle poly and she looks like a good fit here and won't have to worry about the "Chick" that beat her in her last two outings.
Wagering
WIN: #5 to win at 6/1 or better.
EX: 4,5 / 3,4,5,9
TRI: 4,5 / 3,4,5,9 / 3,4,5,8,9,12
Live Longshots:
These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their trifecta and superfecta wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win-place wager.
Belmont Park
R2: #5 Barefoot Babe 10/1
R2: #6 Eleni’s Hope 10/1
R3: #3 Exotic Indy 12/1
R3: #6 Zaskar 10/1
R5: #5 Singing My Song 8/1
R6: #8 Crown Point 8/1
R8: #3 Marina Market 10/1
R9: #9 Orthodontist 12/1
Keeneland
R1: #3 Malcom’s Delite 8/1
R1: #10 Moon Town 8/1
R2: #5 Boulder Tiger 8/1
R3: #5 Fortheboysatthebar 10/1
R4: #1 Woodford Girl 10/1
R5: #9 Honor in Peace 8/1
R6: #11 Fugitive Angel 8/1
R6: #10 It’smyburtday 10/1
R7: #2 Tweeter 12/1
R7: #5 Alice’s Smart 12/1
R8: #3 Ez Dreamer 8/1
R8: #10 Sing Baby Sing 10/1
R9: #5 Negligee 12/1
Good luck today!
