With the Breeders’ Cup just four weeks away, today is the final dress rehearsal for many of the top rated horses with their eyes on the big prize next month.
There are ten Breeders’ Cup Challenge “Win and You’re In” races today, with the winners guaranteed starting berths in the corresponding Breeders’ Cup races.
There are four at Keeneland, two at Belmont Park, and four at Santa Anita.
Toss in three more tomorrow, two at Keeneland and one at Santa Anita, and it is a baker’s dozen of can’t miss races to watch and wager on.
All eyes will be on Santa Anita late this afternoon as Zenyatta will be looking to improve her career record to a perfect 13 for 13.
She is the 2/5 morning line favorite in the $300,000 Lady’s Secret Stakes (G1), a race she won last year in her final prep before taking the Breeders’ Cup Ladies Classic.
The big question is whether she defends her title in the Ladies Classic next month, or takes on the boys in the Breeders’ Cup Classic.
If she rolls over the field in the Lady’s Secret, trainer John Shirreffs and owner Jerry Moss will have a tough decision to make.
Would they risk the mare’s perfect record by taking on the boys, or take the easier route and stick to her own division?
Her only real shot of knocking Rachel Alexandra off the pedestal for a possible Horse of the Year bid might be to beat the boys.
However, at least so far, Shirreffs and Moss have taken the more conservative route, and even if she destroys the field today, I think she still seems likely to stick to the Ladies Classic.
It would be dream match up to see her take on the likes of Sea the Stars, Summer Bird, and Rip Van Winkle in the Classic, but much like the match up against Rachel Alexandra that never materialized, we might be dreaming.
However, if she wins big today, the connections will have a lot of pressure to take on the boys next month.
I’m guessing she sticks to the Ladies Classic unless Sea the Stars decides to stay home.
The cards at Belmont Park and Keeneland are outstanding today. I have both covered, and there are quite a few excellent wagering opportunities.
It should be an exciting day of racing.
To purchase my full card report for Belmont Park and Keeneland that includes analysis, selections, fair odds, and wagering recommendations for today click here.
Here is today's opening race from Belmont Park to get our day off to a good start:
BEL Race 1 Clm $25,000N2L (1:00 ET)
#5 Stroll for Acure 3/1
#4 Bold Vindication 4/1
#3 Keeping the Honor 5/2
#8 Hint 5/1
Analysis: #5 Stroll for Acure found that last furlong too much last out and may have been due for a regression anyway off the hard fought nose loss two back. The beaten chalk in his last two starts, if he runs back to his three previous numbers he looks like the one to beat. The colt broke his maiden over the turf here and has five sibs that have also won on turf. Ramon picks up the call for Mott and does not ride much for the barn, although he may pick up some live mounts with Kent at Keeneland.
#4 Bold Vindication set the early fractions and weakened to finish sixth last out against $35K non-winners of two at the Spa. The runner up and fourth place finisher came out of that race to win next out. The Guillo barn had a good meeting here in the spring and has disappeared off the radar since. The colt is winless in eight career starts on turf but has run pretty well here, landing in the money in four of six trips on the lawn here.
Wagering
WIN: #5 to win at 2/1 or better.
EX: 4,5 / 3,4,5,8
TRI: 4,5 / 3,4,5,8 / 3,4,5,6,8
Today's Featured Race of the Day from Belmont Park:
BEL Race 8 Frizette S. G1 (4:43 ET)
#6 Franny Freud 8/1
#4 Awesome Maria 2/1
#5 Touching Beauty 5/1
#2 Devil May Care 6/1
Analysis: #6 Franny Freud has won three of four in her career including her debut over the main track here, but tricky to get a ready how good this gal might be. She made two starts over poly at Woodbine and last out won the NY bred Lady Finger at Finger Lakes. Her running style looks like she may like a one-turn mile and her 8/1 ML looks more than fair.
#4 Awesome Maria was a sharp winner last out in the Matron (G2) in her firs start against winners, beating a couple of runners she faces again today. She has plenty of pedigree to handle the stretch out and looks tough here as the likely short priced favorite in here.
Wagering
WIN: #6 to win at 9/2 or better.
EX: 4,6 / 2,4,5,6
TRI: 4,6 / 2,4,5,6 / 2,4,5,6,7
Today's Featured Race of the Day from Keeneland:
KEE Race 9 Shadwell Turf Mile S. G1 (5:45 ET)
#7 Justenuffhumor 5/2
#5 Battle of Hastings 5/1
#2 Mr. Sidney 3/1
#9 Court Vision 7/2
Analysis: #7 Justenuffhumor has reeled off six straight wins on turf including a couple of graded stakes at the Spa. We have been on this guy's bandwagon for both of his stakes scores and the Fourstardave two back came over ground with some give to it. The colt is a half to Dreaming of Anna ($2 million) and Lewis Michael ($812K). Despite coming in here off back-to-back career tops I don't see this guy slowing down.
#5 Battle of Hastings has been very consistent this year, nearly winning his last six starts, coming up 3/4 of a length in the American Derby (G3) in May and missing winning the Del Mar Derby (G2) last out by a nose. His most impressive win of the year may have been the Virginia Derby (G2) two back over ground labeled as good. He faces older today for the first time and will need to pick up his game a bit to get the top spot.
Wagering
WIN: #7 to win at 9/5 or better.
EX: 5,7 / 2,5,7,9
TRI: 5,7 / 2,5,7,9 / 2,5,6,7,9
Live Longshots:
These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their trifecta and superfecta wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win-place wager.
Belmont Park
R2: #5 Magnification 15/1
R2: #1 R Own Missle 15/1
R3: #4 Crazy Thing 8/1
R5: #11 Up for Love 10/1
R6: #5 Brother Bud 8/1
R6: #4 Hedge Fund 20/1
R7: #2 Xodo 10/1
R8: #6 Franny Freud 8/1
R10: #4 Globemaster 8/1
Keeneland
R1: #10 Jimanator 15/1
R2: #9 Transformation 20/1
R3: #4 Sweet Lemon Chello 8/1
R4: #7 Let’s Do It 10/1
R8: #9 Hurricane Ike 15/1
Good luck today!
