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At the Gate - Saturday
October 16, 2009
By Mike Dempsey VegasInsider.com
W e got off to a good start on Friday if you used the opening race, which was in yesterday’s column.
My top pick It’s a Miracle was caught at the wire by my second choice Magical Prize, who retuned $63.40 for the win.
We can call that a “miracle prize.”
The recommended exacta returned $226.80. I did not use the third place finisher, and we missed out on a $1 trifecta that paid $1,813.30.
The exacta was one of the few bright spots on the day however, as I had a case of seconditis at Keeneland.
It was a chalky day at Belmont Park. I had three winners on top on the nine race card, but they paid just $6.60, $4.70, and $3.90.
You know it’s a chalky day when the early Pick 4 paid $23.70 on a $1 ticket. The late Pick 4 paid just $41.00.
That is the lowest payouts I can remember in New York in a long time.
Today’s card holds more potential unless there is an abundance of late scratches. There is more rain in the forecast and three races are carded for the turf.
The racing office moved today’s Athenia Stakes to Wednesday because of the weather, but still carded three races for the turf, which does not make much sense.
Why not just scrap the entries for all of the turf races for today?
Keeneland has another solid card with plenty of large fields. The feature is the $500,000 Queen Elizabeth Challenge Cup Stakes (G1).
The race is not a designated Breeders’ Cup Challenge “Win and You’re In” race, but the race may produce a starter or two for the Filly & Mare Turf.
The co-feature is the $150,000 Perryville Stakes (G1) at seven furlongs on the polytrack.
Warrior’s Reward looks beatable as the 6/5 morning line favorite. Seven will line up in the race, which does not seem likely to produce any runners for the Breeders’ Cup Sprint.
Woodbine has three Breeders’ Cup Challenge races today, which will be telecast on ESPN this afternoon.
Here are my top two picks for the three races:
Nearctic Stakes: #9 Heros Reward, #11 Jungle Wave. E.P. Taylor Stakes: #2 Rainbow View, #1 Treat Gently. Canadian International: #1 Champs Elysees, #5 Marsh Side.
To purchase my full card report for Keeneland and Belmont Park that includes analysis, selections, fair odds, and wagering recommendations for today, click here.
Here is today's opening race from Keeneland to get our day off to a good start:
KEE Race 1 Clm $7,500 (1:05 ET) #4 Between Us 5/2 #11 Flashy Dream 10/1 #10 August Rush 5/1 #6 Illuminque 6/1
Analysis: #4 Between Us is back in for a tag after a fifth place finish last out against $10K starter allowance company at Arlington. The filly has not landed in the money in six trips over turf so the switch back to poly should suit this gal. Two back she was a game second for a $25K tag over poly in a race taken off the turf. The winner of that race was Salty Wave, who beat $25K claimers in her next start. Third place finisher Stormin Princess beat $14K claimers and then $18K claimers in her next two outings. The barn hits at a 43% clip (with a +ROI) moving runners from turf to the fake stuff.
#11 Flashy Dream set the early fractions and weakened to finish fourth last out against $10K claimers over good ground at Kentucky Downs. The winner of the race was Geri Road, who returned to beat $10K foes again on Sept. 28. She won two and three back at Ellis on the turf and while she has done her best running on turf, she has one win over poly, her maiden break at Turfway back in '07. She come sin here in good form and her 10/1 ML looks fair enough to toss her in the mix.
Wagering WIN: #4 to win at 2/1 or better. EX: 4,11 / 4,6,10,11 TRI: 4,11 / 4,6,10,11 / 1,4,6,10,11
Today's Featured Race of the Day from Belmont Park:
BEL Race 9 Alw $50,000s (5:15 ET) #5 Taum Sauk 8/1 #9 Another Success 6/1 #8 Banking Holiday 5/2 #2 Cires 5/1
Analysis: #5 Taum Sauk set the early fractions and held on well for the runner up spot last out at this condition. The colt caught a surface that was more favorable to outside stalkers and closers that day. The colt owns solid early and mid pace numbers and in just his sixth career start still appears to have some upside. He has a decent off track pedigree and his 8/1 ML looks generous.
#9 Another Success stalked the early pace, split rivals in the stretch and finished up well but was unable to catch the winner who got the jump on him heading for home. The colt was claimed back by Kimmel after he lost the colt for $60K. The colt makes his third start of his current form cycle and three of his last four figs fit well here. The fact Parisella bought him for $60K and jammed him in for $35K is a concern, but the colt put in a good effort last out.
Wagering WIN: #5 to win at 9/2 or better. EX: 5,9 / 2,5,8,9 TRI: 5,9 / 2,5,8,9 / 2,5,6,8,9
Today's Featured Race of the Day from Keeneland:
KEE Race 9 QEII Challenge Cup G1 (5:05 ET) #6 Lady Shakespeare 6/1 #4 Gozzip Girl 6/5 #5 Shared Account 6/1 #2 Miss World 3/1
Analysis: #6 Lady Shakespeare sure enjoyed her time north of the border, reeling off four consecutive victories at Woodbine. The filly has now won five of her seven career starts and gets the serious class test here as she tries Grade 1 company for the first time. Her full brother Shakespeare did not have a problem with Grade 1 company. The colt won seven of his eight career starts for earnings of $1.29 million. The filly also is a half sister to stakes winner Fantastic Shirl, who earned $251,000 in her career. In her last outing, the filly drew a bum post, was off at the back of the pack, and made a strong late rally to get the job done. It looks like she will get an honest pace here and we should catch a fair price.
#4 Gozzip Girl will be the short priced favorite in here. The filly had a tough trip last out in a fourth place finish in the Garden City (G1) at Belmont Park over soft footing. She had to steady sharply while down along the inside and clipped heels, nearly hitting the turf on the first turn. Her most impressive effort came two back when she shipped to the left coast to win the American Oaks (G1) at Hollywood Park. She can handle ground with some give to it and figures to rebound her with a better trip, but the price is likely going to be on the light side.
Wagering WIN: #6 to win at 7/2 or better. EX: 4,6 / 2,4,5,6 TRI: 4,6 / 2,4,5,6 / 2,4,5,6,7
Live Longshots: These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their trifecta and superfecta wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win-place wager.
Keeneland R1: #11 Flashy Dream 10/1 R3: #10 Superb Ravi 10/1 R4: #7 Portend 8/1 R4: #2 Yay Go Me 8/1 R6: #2 Cherokee Queen 12/1 R7: #7 His Greatness 10/1 R8: #9 Dictate the Tempo 12/1 R10: #2 Captiva Pass 10/1
Belmont Park R2: #6 Oskar Hval 12/1 R3: #6 Maggie’s Miracle 10/1 R4: #5 Hunting 10/1 R5: #6 Loxy Lady 10/1 R7: #7 Trusting Heart 10/1 R7: #4 Top Leader 10/1 R8: #7 Native mambo 8/1 R9: #5 Taum Sauk 8/1 R10: #10 Bunky 8/1 R10: #13 Highveldt 8/1 R10: #5 Tristen’s Mambo 8/1
Good luck today!
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