On Wednesday we turned a nice profit at Keeneland while landing in the red at Belmont Park, and it was the exact opposite yesterday.
We had a +46% +ROI with my top picks at Belmont Park, but went 0 for 9 at Keeneland, although we did hit four recommended exactas.
The tough beat on the day happened in the nightcap, where I had the first time starter Penitant Prayers, who was 25/1.
The gelding was off poorly under jockey Aldo Canchano, who seems undecided what path to take in the stretch while the gelding was a bit green.
He finished up well, beaten just two necks and a nose back in fourth. A better start and a cleverer ride and the gelding lights up the toteboard.
It stung especially hard because I was alive to a $822.30 Pick 3 if the gelding had hit the wire first.
I will put Penitant Prayers in my stable mail and bet him back, but we are not going to see anything close to his 25/1 the next time he hits the track.
The cards at both Belmont Park and Keeneland are solid today, with plenty of prices and vulnerable favorites.
To purchase my full card report for Keeneland and Belmont Park that includes analysis, selections, fair odds, and wagering recommendations for today click here.
Here is today's opening race from Keeneland to get our day off to a good start:
KEE Race 1 Md $15,000 (1:05 et)
#10 Orogenic 3/1
#7 Warrior Ace 5/1
#2 Some Kinda Trouble 5/1
#12 Spy Park 7/2
Analysis: #10 Orogenic is coming off a good effort at Del Park last out, a runner up finish after setting the early fractions against $20K maiden claimers on the turf. If we put a line through his sub par effort two back in the slop this guy looks headed in the right direction, at least on turf. The colt looks like he should take to poly, by Orientate out of a Relaunch mare that has dropped five other foals to race, all winners including one stakes winner, top earner Curve Ahead ($165K). The colt popped a bullet work over at Churchill on Oct. 14.
#7 Warrior Ace is also made his last start at Del Park and is making his first start on poly. Last out the gelding made a good late rally to finish in the runner up spot for a $20K tag going six furlongs. The fifth place finisher in the race was Vigo, who graduated in his next outing on Oct. 17 at the $7.5K level. Two back he was fifth going a mile for a $25K tag, a race that produced three next out winners. The extra furlong here looks like it should suit this guy.
Wagering
WIN: #10 to win at 5/2 or better.
EX: 7,10 / 2,7,10,12
TRI: 7,10 / 2,7,10,12 / 2,6,7,9,10,12
Today's Featured Race of the Day from Belmont Park:
BEL Race 8 Alw $46,000N1X (4:38 et)
#9 Extra Zip 4/1
#5 Midnite Silver 6/1
#8 Mr Sandman 3/1
#1 Sigmondo / #1a Good Prospect 7/2
Analysis: #9 Extra Zip pressed the early pace and came up short late in a fourth place finish at this level, beaten 1 3/4 lengths for the top spot. The winner of the race was Kinsella, who came back to run a good third in the Bryan Station (G3) in his next outing at Keeneland on Oct. 18. The gelding has won 4 of 8 over the turf here and nothing wrong with his third two back in the NY bred West Point behind Banrock, who returned to win the Ashley Cole in his next start on Sept. 13.
#5 Midnite Silver went from last to first to beat $50K claimers last out for his third win on turf in five races. There is enough early zip in here to set things up for this three year old. He did not handle the soft footing two back but the condition of the turf course should be better today.
Wagering
WIN: #9 to win at 3/1 or better.
EX: 5,9 / 1,5,8,9
TRI: 5,9 / 1,5,8,9 / 1,2,5,8,9
Today's Featured Race of the Day from Keeneland:
KEE Race 9 Valley View S. G3 (5:13 et)
#9 Aurora Lights 5/1
#6 Keertana 7/2
#7 Saucey Evening 8/1
#4 Haka 5/1
Analysis: #9 Aurora Lights gets the call in the second half of this split race. The Woodbine shipper comes into the race off a sharp win in the Selena (G3) over polytrack and has the look of a filly on the improve. She has only tried turf once in her career, a distant 12th but that was in the maiden ranks and she found traffic troubles on the turf in that outing. The $800K Keeneland purchase is a much better runner now and willing to give her another look on the turf here. She is a half to multiple stakes winner Master Command ($1.1 million).
#6 Keertana prompted the early pace and weakened to finish third last out in the Garden City (G1) over soft ground at Belmont Park. She has not missed landing in the money in her seven starts on turf and makes her third start of her current form cycle here. She faces easier here and is prove she can handle ground with some give to it. She won the Regret (G3) in June at Churchill Downs over ground labeled as good.
Wagering
WIN: #9 to win at 3/1 or better.
EX: 6,9 / 4,6,7,9
TRI: 6,9 / 4,6,7,9 / 4,6,7,9,10,11
Live Longshots:
These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their trifecta and superfecta wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win-place wager.
Keeneland
R2: #6 Boulder Tiger 8/1
R3: #8 Dream Manager 8/1
R4: #8 Calimonco 8/1
R6: #11 Cautionary Tale 8/1
R7: #1 Rex Regina 10/1
R8: #12 Newport Harbour 12/1
R9: #7 Saucey Evening 8/1
R10: #3 After Dark 12/1
Belmont Park
R1: #8 Ziggly 12/1
R2: #8 Souma 15/1
R3: #1 Lady Alexander 12/1
R4: #2 Vamel 8/1
R4: #12 Orthodontist 12/1
R5: #3 Admiralty 10/1
R5: #2 Don Misil 8/1
R6: #6 Storm Hope 8/1
R6: #7 Victory March 10/1
R7: #2 Can’t Refuse 12/1
Good luck today!
