It is closing weekend at Belmont Park, then we move on to the frozen tundra better known as Aqueduct for the winter meeting.
Today is New York Showcase Day, with five stakes worth $700,000 up for grabs among the top state breds.
The weather is going to be lousy, with rain in the forecast, and the NYRA moved the two turf races, the $150,000 Mohawk Handicap and the $150,000 Ticonderoga to Sunday.
Following New York racing year round, I have to admit that most of the races restricted to state breds are not my favorites.
However, Showcase Day usually offers a good betting card, and today is no exception. There are plenty of big fields and live longshots on the card for today.
My longshot list for Belmont Park today is one of the longest of the meeting, with every race represented with at least one runner that is 8/1 or higher on the morning line and is among my top four contenders in the race.
The track figures to be off, and the two races that were carded for the turf likely will be moved to the main track.
Keeneland also had a solid betting card today and a $106,864 Pick 6 carryover.
To purchase my full card report for Keeneland and Belmont Park that includes analysis, selections, fair odds, and wagering recommendations for today click here.
Here is today's opening race from Keeneland to get our day off to a good start:
KEE Race 1 Md $80,000 (1:05 ET)
#7 La Bien Rose 6/1
#2 Reagan's Wildcat 5/2
#4 Gold Dust Lady 7/2
#8 Someothertime 5/1
Analysis: #7 La Bien Rose was the beaten fav in her debut, checking in fourth as the beaten fav. The filly drops in for a tag here for the Carroll barn that is 5 for 12 (with a +ROI) with horses going from maiden special to maiden claiming. The $75K purchase is by Smoke Glacken out of a Green Dancer mare that has dropped two other foals to race, both winners, top earner Fading Light ($53K). The filly put in a quick breeze over at Churchill on Oct. 19 and figures to move forward for a barn that hits at a 38% clip (with a +ROI) with second out maidens.
#2 Reagan's Wildcat is making her first start since her debut in may where she was a non threatening sixth in a highly graded race. The top two finishers in the race were Decelarator and Hot Dixie Chick, both now graded stakes winners. McPeek has been sending out live maidens at the meeting and is 22% winners (with a +ROI) with horses coming back off a 61-180 day layoff.
Wagering
WIN: #7 to win at 3/1 or better.
EX: 2,7 / 2,4,7,8
TRI: 2,7 / 2,4,7,8 / 2,4,5,7,8
Today's Featured Race of the Day from Belmont Park:
BEL Race 9 Hudson S. (5:09 ET)
#4 Legal Consent 8/1
#1 Driven by Success 8/5
#11 Law Enforcement 3/1
#7 Citifest 12/1
Analysis: #4 Legal Consent came out on the wrong end of a three way photo last out in the Sir Keys, beaten a head and a nose for the top spot. The runner up in the race as Haynesfield, who looks very tough in the Empire Classic today. The colt makes his third start of his current form cycle and has run his best on a wet track (4-2-1-0). Worth a good look here if we see most of the 8/1 ML.
#1 Driven by Success returns to the New York bred ranks here after getting outrun in the Forego (G1) last out. The gelding owns a solid pace profile throughout and his back numbers tower over the rest of the field here. He is bred to like a wet track, having just one trip over a wet track, a runner up finish in the slop in his second career start. Hard to knock anything Levine sends out recently, his runners are really firing recently.
Wagering
WIN: #4 to win at 9/2 or better.
EX: 1,4 / 1,4,7,11
TRI: 1,4 / 1,4,7,11 / 1,4,6,7,10,11
Today's Featured Race of the Day from Keeneland:
KEE Race 9 Raven Run S. G2 (5:05 ET)
#6 Moontune Missy 15/1
#11 Sky Haven 8/1
#8 Flashing 3/1
#2 Just Jenda 4/1
Analysis: #6 Moontune Missy looks primed for a good effort here in her third start of her current form cycle and we should catch a generous price on this filly. She made a good late rally to win an overnight stake last out at Belmont Park in the slop in her second start off the bench. She broke her maiden over the Pro Ride surface last fall earning a solid number and that bodes well for her first trip over polytrack here. She had a good breeze over the surface on Oct. 19 and is in good hands with the Harty barn.
#11 Sky Haven is coming off a third place finish in the Gallant Bloom (G2) behind two very good fillies in Indian Blessing and Sara Louise. The filly has three trips over Tapeta in her career and she is a nose away from being perfect over the synthetic surface. She won the Presque Isle Masters last fall in her last trip over the fake stuff. The Asmussen filly comes into this race holding the top last out speed fig and she looks like she has been keeping tougher company in her last two starts than most of these. Her 8/1 ML looks more than fair.
Wagering
WIN: #6 to win at 8/1 or better.
EX: 6,11 / 2,6,8,11
TRI: 6,11 / 2,6,8,11 / 1,2,5,6,8,11
Live Longshots:
These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their trifecta and superfecta wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win-place wager.
Keeneland
R4: #9 Shaker Lakes 8/1
R4: #8 Fasola 12/1
R4: #5 Copybreak 8/1
R5: #9 Marathon Moon 10/1
R5: #5 Cat Park 10/1
R6: #4 Better Go Hide 12/1
R6: #2 Canook 8/1
R7: #10 Lost Soul 12/1
R7: #8 Gold Medallion 10/1
R8: #2 Fort Prado 8/1
R8: #9 Crested 12/1
R9: #6 Moontune Missy 15/1
R9: #11 Sky Haven 8/1
R10: #12 Stealin’ Kisses 8/1
Belmont Park
R1: #1 Castle Harbour / #1a Five Cases 8/1
R2: #5 Papa’s Nice Cat 8/1
R2: #8 Holligan’s Delight 8/1
R3: #2 Extinguish 8/1
R3: #5 Paul’s Ace 8/1
R4: #1 Strong Impact / #1a Al’s Deputy 8/1
R5: #1 Holy Ego / #1a Fortunate Run 12/1
R5: #9 Solutionfinders 8/1
R6: #4 Valuable Lady 8/1
R7: #2 Power Blast 8/1
R8: #13 Mother Russia 12/1
R8: #8 Under Serviced 10/1
R9: #4 Legal Consent 8/1
R9: #7 Citifest 12/1
R10: #4 Weathered 10/1
R10: #10 Ruffino 8/1
Good luck today!
