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I’m still a bit dizzy after watching ESPN’s ridiculous camera angles on Breeders’ Cup Friday.
It’s great to watch all of the races in HD, but is sure would be nice to just use a traditional pan shot, like the one we watch the other 363 days of the year.
It was nearly impossible to figure out the race flow and to catch moves horses made. I had a tough time picking up horses and just when I find who I was looking for ESPN would cut to another shot.
On the bright side, ESPN kept Stammerin’ Hank Goldberg to a minimum, and it looks like I am going to lose my side bet on how many times Hank says “Um.”
I played the over, as usual.
I thought the stunner was not the losses of short priced favorites Mastery and Ventura, but how easily Life is Sweet rolled over her foes in the Ladies’ Classic.
Zenyatta’s stablemate won by 2 ½ lengths but she was much the best, with 16/1 longshot Mushka rallying for second.
Horses with trips over a synthetic surface seemed to hold the edge over horses that made their last starts on dirt, much like last year.
Europeans won two of the six races on Friday, Man of Iron ($14.80) taking the Marathon, and Midday ($6.60) winning the Filly & Mare Turf.
I think the Europeans could dominate on Saturday, possibly winning as many as five races.
There are several vulnerable favorites I am going to be wagering against, including Zensational and Zenyatta.
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Here is today's opening race from Aqueduct to get our day off to a good start:
AQU Race 1 Alw $50,000s (12:30 ET)
#7 Banking Holiday 5/2
#3 Taum Sauk 8/1
#6 Almighty Silver 4/1
#8 Mr. Universe 8/1
Analysis: #7 Banking Holiday regressed last out off a career top two back when coming up a head a neck short for this condition. The runner up and fourth place finisher in that race came back to win next out. Last out the colt did have some trouble, getting blocked behind runners on the far turn and only rallied mildly late. The colt has picked up for wins although they came against softer. Figures to rebound here for the high % Maker barn.
#3 Taum Sauk pressed the early pace and faded to finish sixth last out as my top pick. He has earned a career top two back, a fig that puts her right in the mix here. He owns solid early and mid pace numbers and is making his third start of his current form cycle. There is some other early zip in here so he won't have things easy up front, but the price again today is worth giving him a shot.
Wagering
WIN: #7 to win at 2/1 or better.
EX: 3,7 / 3,6,7,8
TRI: 3,7 / 3,6,7,8 / 2,3,6,7,8
Today's Featured Race of the Day from Oak Tree at Santa Anita:
SA Race 4 BC Sprint G1 (12:10 PT)
#5 Gayego 5/2
#9 Fleeting Spirit 6/1
#4 Crown of Thorns 12/1
#1 Zensational 7/5
Analysis: #5 Gayego prepped for this with a visually impressive victory in the Ancient Title (G1) over the main track here. The colt had to steady lightly when in tight early, settled in a nice spot just off the rail and came with a four wide run down the stretch to roll by the field. The colt now has won 4 of 7 on the fake stuff with a couple of runner up finishes. The colt will get a good pace set up here and he looks capable of moving forward as he makes his third start of his current form cycle.
#9 Fleeting Spirit is the wildcard in the race. She was fourth in the BC Turf Sprint last year, beaten 2 1/4 lengths after breaking a step slow. She was off a step slow last out in a 16 horse field in the Prix del'Abbaye de Longchamp (G1), one of the top turf sprint races in the world, beaten a neck by Total Gallery. I love the jock switch to Dettori here and it is interesting Noseda elects to take on the boys on the Pro Ride this year. She needs to break better and she should be flying at the finish.
#4 Crown of Thorns was a good second to #5 Gayego last out in the Ancient Title and looks like he is sitting on a big one here in his third start off the bench. He was sidelined in February of '08 after winning the Robert Lewis (G2) in his first start against winners and has come back a more mature runner and tough to pop a 102 Beyer off a 19-month layoff. This guy has a ton of upside potential and Mandella in his corner. Worth tossing in the mix here at a generous price.
#1 Zensational has been off flat footed in each of his last two starts, breaking fourth in a five horse field in the Pat O'Brien (G1) and fifth and last in the Bing Crosby (G1) two back. I secretly was rooting for a rail draw and got it. If this guy breaks here as he did in his last two starts, he could be in deep waters if some of the speed to his outside angle in on him. He just has the look of the underlay of the day to me at the 7/5 ML odds.
Wagering
WIN: #5 to win at 5/2 or better.
EX: 5,9 / 1,4,5,9
TRI: 5,9 / 1,4,5,9 / 1,3,4,5,8,9
Today's Featured Race of the Day from Aqueduct:
AQU Race 7 Tempted S. G3 (3:33 ET)
#7 Tizahit
#3 Worstcasescenario
#1 Cuff Me
#2 Aialea
Analysis: #7 Tizahit shipped to Del Park for her stakes debut and made a good late rally to finish in the runner up spot in a solid effort. The third and sixth place finishers came out of that race to win stakes in their next starts. The Weaver filly is cutting back to one turn here but she should catch a solid early pace in front of her in here and she should be rolling late again. The 8/1 ML looks more than fair.
#3 Worstcasescenario really looked good winning the Adirondack going 6 1/2 furlongs and then the wheels came off last out in the Matron (G2) where she tracked the early pace and faded badly. She has come back with decent looking works and she had enough pedigree to handle the extra ground. Her last was just too bad to believe, and we have a solid two-year-old barn in Violette in our corner. She figures to bounce back with a much better effort here.
Live Longshots:
These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their trifecta and superfecta wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win-place wager.
Aqueduct
R1: #3 Taum Sauk 8/1
R1: #8 Mr. Universe 8/1
R3: #1 White Holiday 12/1
R4: #6 Enigmatic 15/1
R5: #3 Hooligan’s Delight 10/1
R5: #9 Helvi 8/1
R7: #7 Tizahit 8/1
Oak Tree at Santa Anita (Breeders’ Cup)
R2: #7 Bridgetown 8/1
R3: #4 Lord Shanakill 8/1
R3: #7 Gotta Have Her 15/1
R3: #12 Strike the Deal 15/1
R4: #4 Crown of Thorns 12/1
R5: #11 Radiohead 15/1
R5: #8 Eskendereya 10/1
R5: #4 Noble’s Promise 8/1
R6: #8 Zacinto 8/1
R6: #10 Justenuffhumor 10/1
R7: #8 Mr. Sidney 12/1
R7: #9 Chocolate Candy 15/1
R9: #7 Gio Ponti 12/1
R9: #8 Einstein 12/1
R9: #9 Girolamo 20/1
R10: #4 No Inflation 8/1
Good luck today!