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At the Gate - Thursday
November 12, 2009
By Mike Dempsey
VegasInsider.com
W ith the Breeders’ Cup behind us, it is back to the daily grind of winning dough at the Big A, and we got off to a good start to the week on Wednesday, with four winners on top on the nine race card, producing a +77 +ROI for the day with my top picks.
My second choice won three other races, and we had five recommended exactas, returning $46.80, $19.40, $11.00, $79.00, and $52.50.
The buzz since Saturday is all about Zenyatta, and whether her electrifying victory in the Breeders’ Cup Classic would be enough to turn the tables on Rachel Alexandra for Horse of the Year honors.
Gulfstream Park is hoping to get the two super females runners to compete in the Donn Handicap on Saturday, Feb. 6.
The track announced earlier this year it would waive starter fees for Rachel Alexandra and Zenyatta, as well as Kentucky Derby winner Mine That Bird, Belmont winner Summer Bird and Florida Derby winner Quality Road.
Both Zenyatta and Rachel Alexandra seem likely to be headed to the breeding shed, and I don’t expect either to race in 2010.
Zenyatta particularly has nothing to gain from racing again, which would put her undefeated record in jeopardy.
What would it take to get them together for a showdown?
I just don’t see any scenario where they would both race again, and then the connections would have to agree on a venue, with Zenyatta doing her best work on synthetic surfaces, and Rachel Alexandra running best on conventional dirt.
Even if somebody comes up with a carrot like a $15 million purse, that would likely not be enough to get them together.
We are going to have to settle for a showdown in a couple of years, when perhaps their foals will meet up on the track.
To purchase my full card report for Aqueduct that includes analysis, selections, fair odds, and wagering recommendations for today, click here.
Here is today's opening race from Aqueduct to get our day off to a good start:
AQU Race 1 OClm $75,000N1X (12:30 ET) #3 Dattt Echo 5/1 #7 Graemy 5/2 #2 This Chic's Got It 3/1 #6 Azadi 4/1
Analysis: #3 Dattt Echo stumbled coming out of the gate and was not a threat in her debut over a wet track in a race taken off the turf at the Big M. It was her first go against winners after a smart looking maiden win two back at the Spa. She earned a competitive number in her maiden score and the third place finisher in that race was Happy Week, who came back to graduate in her next start on Oct. 5 at the Big M. The filly was a $360K purchase and is a half to stakes winner Mani Bhavan ($267K). He she figures to bounce back with a better break here.
#7 Graemy is one of two in here that has beaten winners, taking a Alw-1 optional claimer and comes back at the same condition by being offered up for a $75K tag. While it does not look like she beat a very tough group last out at Laurel Park, she does owns a solid pace profile throughout and she did earn the top last out speed fig.
Wagering WIN: #3 to win at 3/1 or better. EX: 3,7 / 2,3,6,7 TRI: 3,7 / 2,3,6,7 / 2,3,5,6,7
Today's Featured Race of the Day from Aqueduct:
AQU Race 8 Clm $30,000 (3:44 ET) #5 Base Commander 3/1 #8 Port Royal 12/1 #7 Gone Missing 6/1 #1 Courting Wisdom / #1a Neerbeendancin' 7/2
Analysis: #5 Base Commander made a mild late rally to finish third last out against $25K starter handicap foes, beaten three lengths for the top spot. The runner up in the race was More Than Reason, who beat $25K starter handicap[ company in his next start, then ran second in the Half High Stakes in his most recent outing. Fourth place finisher Starforaday came back to beat $25K starter handicap foes on Oct. 28. He is back in for a tag here and he earned his career top in his lone other go for a price in a runner up finish against $25K claimers three back.
#8 Port Royal is making his first start since May and his first for the Brown barn that is 23% winners (with a +ROI) with newcomers to the barn. The five year old seldom runs a bad one but does have a habit of landing for minor shares. Three back he beat Alw-2 company at Philly producing a career top. He broke his maiden over the surface back in '07. Looks like a good spot here returning off the bench tagged for $30K and the price should be right.
Wagering WIN: #5 to win at 5/2 or better. EX: 5,8 / 1,5,7,8 TRI: 5,8 / 1,5,7,8 / 1,4,5,7,8
Live Longshots: These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their trifecta and superfecta wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win-place wager.
Aqueduct R2: #5 Broken Home 8/1 R3: #2 Bebob / #2b Chief Export 8/1 R4: #6 Brother of Gold 12/1 R6: #5 Trusting Heart 15/1 R7: #9 Always for Love 8/1 R8: #8 Port Royal 12/1
Good luck today!
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