If you were turned into TVG on Saturday, you undoubtedly heard talking head Matt Carothers talking about the Discovery Handicap (G3), the feature at Aqueduct.
He claimed my top pick Haynesfield had taken advantage of a speed bias to win the Empire Classic in his last start, and picked Birdrun.
Throughout the day, all I seemed to hear was how Haynesfield won because of a “speed bias.”
I track the bias at Aqueduct and had the surface labeled fair that day. Out of curiosity, I went back again and looked at the charts for Oct. 24 just to be sure.
Two runners did go gate to wire that day, but outside stalkers and closers won a couple of races, and if there was a speed bias as Carothers suggested, I just did not see it.
His top pick Birdrun stumbled out of the gate, while Haynesfield was an impressive winner, returning $9.90 in a five-horse field.
It is not the first time an imaginary speed bias mysteriously appeared on TVG.
Too often, after one or two races are won in gate to wire fashion, the talking heads starts talking about a speed bias.
I even saw it occur last year after a 3/5 chalk had won the opener. Yes, a speedy heavy chalk goes gate to wire and a speed bias is declared.
I was amazed Haynesfield paid $9.90 in a five horse field, and I have to think I should send Matty a thank you note.
I think tracking a bias can be more art than science, but it is important not to take anything one of the talking heads on TVG says too seriously when it comes to how a track is playing.
While most of the talking heads at TVG might have good intentions, they are asked to follow far too many tracks, and on a few too many occasions, several of them have a habit of throwing out assumptions rather than facts.
That is why they invented the Mute button.
To purchase my full card report for Aqueduct that includes analysis, selections, fair odds, and wagering recommendations for today click here.
Here is today's opening race from Aqueduct to get our day off to a good start:
AQU Race 1 Hcp $10,000s (12:30 ET)
#1 Jacob's Run / #1a Brooks Star
#7 Independence War
#4 Call Tiger
#8 Missile Motor
Analysis: #1 Jacob's Run did not fire as the favorite when shipped to Philly last out but we'll toss that effort and look for the five year old to bounce back here. Two back he was beaten just a neck against Alw-1 optional claimers at Del Park, beaten by Seneca Summer, who came back to beat Alw-1 optional claimers again on Oct. 17. Third place finisher Truthbetold also won next out, taking an Alw-1 race at Del Park on Sept. 29. He owns a solid pace profile throughout and figures to bounce back with a better effort. His entrymate #1a Brooks Star beat $25K claimers last out over the polytrack at Keeneland. He was claimed out of the race by the Autrey barn that is 18% winners first off the claim. He completes a strong looking entry for a sharp outfit.
#7 Independence War was the beaten chalk last out for a $35K tag, checking in fifth. The gelding won 4 of his last 5 starts and looks well spotted here facing $10K starter handicap foes. He makes his first start for the Levine barn that is 36% winners (with a +ROI) first off the claim. The gelding is reunited with Ramon who was aboard two back when beating up on $20K claimers. He was claimed in each of his last three starts and good to see Levine protect this guy but the price is going to be on the light side.
Wagering
WIN: #1 to win at 2/1 or better.
EX: 1,7 / 1,4,7,8
TRI: 1,7, / 1,4,7,8 / 1,4,5,7,8
Today's Featured Race of the Day from Aqueduct:
AQU Race 8 OClm $50,000N2X (3:44 ET)
#5 Brady Baby 7/2
#8 Stevil 3/1
#2 Primary Witness 9/2
#3 Blank Check 8/1
Analysis: #5 Brady Baby is making his first start since May for the Brown barn that is on the light side with layoff types, hitting at a 7% clip with horses coming back off a +180 day layoff. This colt showed some serious speed early in his career, popping a 99 Beyer wiring the field in his debut and handled Alw-1 foes at Tampa in his third career outing. He was placed on the shelf after a fourth and third in two stakes tries. He has a couple of bullet drills on the morning tab and I have a hunch this guy is going to come back running and the cut back from two turns to one along with the class drop should suit.
#8 Stevil took forever to pass his first allowance condition but has certainly turned the corner since Barbara took him from Zito. This guy is sharp right now and is coming off a solid second last out in his first go at the condition. He owns solid late pace numbers and should be sitting off what likely is going to be a sharp early pace.
Wagering
WIN: #5 to win at 5/2 or better.
EX: 5,8 / 2,3,5,8
TRI: 5,8 / 2,3,5,8 / 2,3,4,5,8
Live Longshots:
These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their trifecta and superfecta wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win-place wager.
Aqueduct
R1: #4 Call Tiger 10/1
R1: #8 Missile Motor 8/1
R2: #7 Viva La Gata 15/1
R2: #11 Big Brownie 8/1
R5: #6 Sparkling T 10/1
R6: #6 Cole T 8/1
R7: #2 See the U S A 10/1
R7: #9 Mr. Vegas 15/1
R8: #3 Blank Check 8/1
R9: #2 Flying Sappho 8/1
Good luck today!
