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At the Gate - Friday
March 12, 2010
By Mike Dempsey
VegasInsider.com
S aturday brings us the return of Rachel Alexandra and Zenyatta, who will each prep a few thousand miles part for a showdown that will occur April 9 at Oaklawn Park in the $5 million Apple Blossom Invitational (G1).
Of course, they both need to get through their races tomorrow in good health. At least on paper, it does not appear that either is going to lose.
Rachel Alexandra is only facing four foes in the $200,000 New Orleans Ladies Stakes. Even if she is only 80%, she should be able to beat her four overmatched foes.
Zenyatta faces eight fillies and mares in the $250,000 Santa Margarita Invitational Handicap (G1) and has to carry 127 pounds, spotting her rivals 12 to 19 pounds.
They both figure to go off at 1/9 odds, and unless you are a bridge jumper, it appears it will be tough to make money on the races.
I spent most of last night focusing on the three Kentucky Derby preps on Saturday, the Rebel (G2) at Oaklawn Park, Tampa Bay Derby (G3) at Tampa Bay Downs, and the San Felipe (G2) at Santa Anita.
All three of the races are good betting races, although I was surprised each of the races only drew seven runners.
That is 21 three year olds along with their owners, trainers, and jockeys that are hoping a big performance on Saturday can stamp them a ticket to Churchill Downs on the first Saturday of May.
Unfortunately, none of the big races on Saturday are nationally televised.
That’s madness.
Well, actually I guess you could call that March Madness.
If you don’t get HRTV or TVG, you can catch live streaming video of Rachel Alexandra and Zenyatta in action at NTRA.com.
I will have selections for all three of the Derby preps in tomorrow’s column, and I have several live longshots I think have a good shot of pulling off upsets in two of the three races.
To purchase my full card report for Aqueduct that includes analysis, selections, fair odds, and wagering recommendations for today, click here.
Here is today's opening race from Aqueduct to get our day off to a good start:
AQU Race 1 Clm $7,500 (1:00 ET) #2 Gattinara 6/1 #6 Fashion Queen 5/2 #4 Indy's Forum 4/1 #1 Calling My Colors / #1a O'Sotopretty 3/1
#2 Gattinara should get a great pace set up[ here, as the mare should be sitting behind what likely is going to be a sharp early pace. She beat $10K non winners of a race in six months last out and now has landed in the exacta in six of 10 trips on the inner. She is in light with the bug Serpa and should be a fair price.
#6 Fashion Queen has won back to back for this tag and last out earned a near career top over a muddy surface and we might see some moisture in the track today. She owns solid early and mid pace numbers, but there are several in here that will be keeping her company early. She has won five of 10 on the inner, but she has the look of an underlay here for the top spot.
Wagering WIN: #2 to win at 7/2 or better. EX: 2,6 / 1,2,4,6 TRI: 2,6 / 1,2,4,6 / 1,2,4,5,6
Today's Featured Race of the Day from Aqueduct:
AQU Race 8 OClm $75,000N1X (4:25 ET) #2 Citizen's Arrest 3/1 #1 Magic Tiger 4/5 #6 Confidence Crisis 8/1 #4 Lion Attack 8/1
#2 Citizen's Arrest got the worst of it trip wide against the ML fav in here last out and may be able to turn the tables. The colt had to check slightly while down along the inside heading down the backstretch and turning for home found himself behind a wall of horses. When clear he came up short, but with a cleaner trip and a jock switch to Ramon, the colt has a good shot here.
#1 Magic Tiger is back at the same condition after drawing clear to win by two lengths last out, his second win in a row. The NY bred is now perfect in two trips on the inner, but I think our top pick is going to offer more value for the top spot here.
Wagering WIN: #2 to win at 2/1 or better. EX: 1,2 / 1,2,6 TRI: no play
Live Longshots: These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their trifecta and superfecta wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win-place wager.
Aqueduct R4: #1 Malibu Gardens 20/1 R6: #4 Been a Pleasure 10/1 R8: #6 Confidence Crisis 8/1 R8: #4 Lion Attack 8/1 R9: #10 Kristen Elizabeth 10/1
Good luck today!
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