The buzz word in sports this weekend is “Bracketology”, but for true horse racing fans, the buzz for today is right up there with a Triple Crown race or the Breeders’’ Cup, and is has nothing to do with hoops.
Both Rachel Alexandra and Zenyatta are in action today, prepping for what could be a monumental showdown at Oaklawn Park next month in the $5 million Apple Blossom Invitational (G1).
In addition, there are three key Kentucky Derby preps, and among the 21 entered in the three races is last year’s Eclipse Award wining juvenile Lookin At Lucky, who is making his much anticipated three-year-old debut in the $300,000 Rebel Stakes (G2) at Oaklawn Park.
Hall of fame trainer Bob Baffert wants to try his juvenile champion on conventional dirt for the first time, and the colt catches a tough spot to return off a three month layoff.
Baffert has had success shipping into Oaklawn Park this season.
He has only shipped in two runners, but they both won. Conveyance won the Southwest Stakes (G3) on Feb. 20, which was his first start on dirt.
Baffert won the Azeri Stakes (G3) on March 6 with Freedom Star, and guess what? That was her first start on conventional dirt as well.
For Baffert to pull of the hat trick, his talented three year old is going to have to defeat several talented runners including Noble’s Promise, Dublin, and Uh Oh Bango.
It is going to be pouring down raining at the Big A today, but at the Derby prep tracks the weather should be perfect.
To purchase my full card report for Aqueduct that includes analysis, selections, fair odds, and wagering recommendations for today click here.
Here is today's opening race from Aqueduct to get our day off to a good start:
AQU Race 1 Clm $7,500B (1:00 ET)
#6 Foolish Vow 6/1
#5 King Bo Bo 2/1
#8 New Spirit 5/1
#1 Smarty Karakorum 3/1
Analysis: #6 Foolish Vow makes his first start since last October for the Conway barn. The gelding owns solid early and mid pace numbers and has run well over a wet track with a trio of runner up finishes and a third in four trips on off going. The barn can win off the shelf and with his last three starts coming at Finger Lakes he may get overlooked on the tote today.
#5 King Bo Bo drops out of a $25K non winners of three where he tracked a solid pace and weakened to finish fifth. His form appears to be going in the wrong direction, but he is bred top and bottom for a wet track and has landed in the exacta in three of four trips on off going. The gelding is dropping into a soft spot.
Wagering
WIN: #6 to win at 7/2 or better.
EX: 5,6 / 1,5,6,8
TRI: 5,6 / 1,5,6,8 / 1,3,5,6,8
Today's Featured Race of the Day from Aqueduct:
AQU Race 9 Cicada Stakes G3 (4:50 ET)
#3 Female Drama 9/2
#4 Liam's Dream 4/1
#8 Bickersons 7/5
#6 Seaside Fortune 15/1
Analysis: #3 Female Drama lost all chance last out when getting bumped and pinched back coming out of the gate, spotting the pacesetter about five lengths as she broke dead last and never got involved. She won her first two starts in gate to wire fashion, taking the Wings Jove two back at Belmont Park. She got a break after her last start and put in decent works at Palm Meadows for Pletcher, who has been on fire at the inner meet, hitting at a 38% clip. She broke her maiden in the slop in her debut, and she figures to bounce back with a much better effort here.
#4 Liam's Dream came up the inside with a mild late run to finish third last out in the Forward Gal (G2), no match for #8 Bickersons, who came back with a clunker as the chalk in the Davona Dale (G2). I liked her Alw-1 win two back at Philly and the Tony D. barn thought enough of her to be one of the shippers he sent to Florida. She has a decent off track pedigree
Wagering
WIN: #3 to win at 3/1 or better.
EX: 3,4 / 3,4,6,8
TRI: 3,4 / 3,4,6,8 / 1,3,4,6,8
Today's Featured Race of the Day from Tampa Bay Downs:
TAM Race 11 Tampa Bay Derby G3 (5:30 ET)
#3 Gleam of Hope 15/1
#7 Odysseus 7/2
#5 Schoolyard Dreams 3/1
#6 Super Saver 2/1
#3 Gleam of Hope came with a five wide rally and finished up well for second in a handicap at Tampa on the turf in his three-year-old debut, not getting much pace to run at. He looks like his real future is on dirt, and he won the Cradle Stakes over a wet track at River Downs last fall. If we ignore the Kentucky Jockey Club (G2) non effort this colt looks pretty good. The colt is in a sharp barn and is a half to stakes winner Forest Princess ($303K) who did her best work going long on dirt. The colt popped another bullet drill on March 10 and should be a big price in here.
#7 Odysseus looks better with each outing, rolling over a field of Alw-1 optional claimers last out and earning a career top speed fig in the effort,. His first go around two turns. While the effort looks very good, he really did not beat a very tough group. I am stilt inking this guy still has some upside potential and has posted a couple of good works over at Palm Meadows since his last outing. He looks primed for another good effort in his third start of his current form cycle,
Wagering
WIN: #3 to win at 8/1 or better.
EX: 3,7 / 3,5,6,7
TRI: 3,7 / 3,5,6,7 / 1,3,5,6,7
Today's Featured Race of the Day from Oaklawn Park:
OP Race 10 Rebel Stakes G2 (5:47 CT)
#4 Uh Oh Bango 5/1
#7 Dublin 3/1
#2 Lookin At Lucky 7/5
#6 Noble’s Promise 5/2
#4 Uh Oh Bango might really get overlooked in here, and the colt did not run a bad one in five starts as a two year old, capped off with a game second, beaten a neck behind Rule in the Delta Jackpot (G3). Rule came back to win the Sam F. Davis at Tampa Bay Downs and looks like a serious Derby contender. Our top pick was a good second two back in the Iroquois, beaten just a length, finishing ahead of #7 Dublin in that outing. The colt is a half to stakes winner Ez Dreamer, who was mainly a sprinter but did win going long a couple of times.
#7 Dublin was a good second last out behind the gate to wire winner Conveyance in the Southwest (G3) in his three-year-old debut. The colt has the pedigree to be a nice runner. The $525K purchase is by Afleet Alex out of the multiple stakes winner Classy Mirage ($717K) who also produced stakes winner Mike’s Classic ($328K). The Hopeful (G1) winner popped a couple of bullet works since his last start and has an advantage over “Lucky” and “Promise” by having a race over the surface.
Wagering
WIN: #4 to win at 9/2 or better.
EX: 4,7 / 2,4,6,7
TRI: 4,7 / 2,4,6,7 / 2,4,5,6,7
Today's Featured Race of the Day from Santa Anita:
SA Race 9 San Felipe Stakes G2 (4:36 PT)
#4 American Lion 4/1
#7 Caracortdo 5/2
#5 Sidney’s Candy 3/1
#2 Interactif 4/1
#4 American Lion gets the call to turn the tables today in a tough race with little separating the top four. Last out the colt battled for the early lead and ran out of gas late in a third place finish. The blinkers go on today and he is making his second start off a three month break. #5 Sidney’s Candy looks quick, which should put Leparoux in a good spot tracking the early pace. The colt should move forward second off the layoff and figures to be a decent enough price.
#7 Caracortado is undefeated and I underestimated how good this guy is when he won the Robert B. Lewis last out at 9/2. His earlier efforts are starting to look better. His win two back was flattered when the runner up Alphie’s Bet came back to win the Sham Stakes on March 6. Things set up for him pretty good last out in the Lewis, and I am not sure he is going to offer much value for the top spot unless the Pletcher colt is drilled at the windows.
Wagering
WIN: #4 to win at 3/1 or better.
EX: 4,7 / 2,4,5,7
TRI: 4,7 / 2,4,5,7 / 2,4,5,6,7
Live Longshots:
These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their trifecta and superfecta wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win-place wager.
Aqueduct
R2: #2 String and Arrows 12/1
R4: #6 No Questions 10/1
R5: #8 Hurricane Heat 8/1
R6: #3 Afrikaner 8/1
R7: #3 Emblemosophy 20/1
R8: #5 Bowman’s Music 8/1
R9: #6 Seaside Fortune 15/1
R10: #9 Lindsey’s Buck 12/1
Good luck today!
