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Expert Free Picks

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MLB Expert Picks for Thursday, March 28

Our VI basketball betting experts have compiled their MLB picks for Thursday, March 28, and they're focusing on the matchups below:

Twins vs. Royals Free Picks

Minnesota Twins Moneyline (-115)

The Minnesota Twins were a very mediocre offense against LHP last season, but they undeniably have the better starting pitcher, better bullpen, and better defense in this Opening Day matchup.

Pablo Lopez was 1 of only 11 pitchers in baseball last season (min. 100 IP) to throw at least 65% first-pitch strikes while also inducing a ground ball rate north of 45%. On that list, all 11 pitchers finished the season with a 4.03 FIP or better, and 5 of those pitchers finished with a 3.33 FIP or better. Having the ability to get both strikeouts and ground balls gives Lopez one of the highest-floor skill sets in the big leagues.

Cole Ragans is everyone's favorite breakout star in 2024, but there are more than a few concerns in his profile. Ragans was dominant after the All-Star Break in 2023, but his command issues have always been a red flag, both before and after undergoing Tommy John surgery. Last season, among 150 pitchers to toss at least 70 innings, Ragans ranked 126th in pitches thrown per batter faced, 120th in first-pitch strike%, and 87th in overall strike%. Very few pitchers have been able to consistently sustain elite levels of production while throwing such a low rate of strikes.

Following the All-Star Break last season, the Twins bullpen ranked 17th in FIP, 11th in WHIP, 5th in K%, 8th in BB%, and 14th in opponent batting average. During that same stretch, the Royals bullpen ranked 29th in FIP, 27th in WHIP, 28th in K%, 22nd in BB%, and 24th in opponent batting average. Even after making some offseason additions via free agency, Kansas City's bullpen doesn't profile as a strength.

Simply, getting a team at close to a pick'em when they have the better starting pitcher, better bullpen, better defense, and a comparable offense is a risk worth taking every day of the week. We will live with the results here.

Red Sox vs. Mariners Free Picks

Boston Red Sox Moneyline (+150)

The Red Sox aren't expected to do much in the AL East this season, but there is value in them in their opener against the Mariners.

Brayan Bello made positive strides for the Red Sox last season with 12 wins while beating the Mariners twice. Also, the Red Sox were favored in both games, as he is flipped to an underdog here.

Luis Castillo got off to a fantastic start last season for Seattle, while not allowing a run in his first 3 home starts. Castillo got racked at Fenway Park last season by giving up 4 1st-inning runs in a 9-4 defeat.

The Mariners might have a better season than the Red Sox, but Bello can silence this Seattle lineup as Boston won 5 of his starts last season in the role of a road underdog.

Free MLB Money Line Picks

Looking for a straight up winner? The Vegas Insider MLB Money Line Picks focuses on just picking the winner. It's as simple as that and knowing that there's no clock in baseball, your wagers are never losers until the final out is punched. Our Free MLB Money Line Picks are known for their value, especially when our stable of experts lay into some live underdogs. 

Free MLB Run-Line Picks

Run-Line Picks is MLB can be viewed as ATS or Against the Spread Picks since a spread or in this case, a run-line is involved. Oddsmakers always open run-line spreads as -1.5 or +1.5 and then there is money associated with each run-line spread. Instead of backing a heavy money-line favorite, bettors have the option to back that team to win by two or more runs at a lower price. When taking the underdog at the +1.5 price, your wager can still lose the game outright but if it stays within the spread (1.5) then you'll be okay. Our MLB Run Line Free Picks will feature a selection either on the favorite or the underdog and will include betting analysis on how to lay or take the points. 

Free MLB Over Under Totals Picks

If you’re undecided on MLB ML or MLB Run Line Free Picks, you must be a Totals bettor and our Free MLB Over Under Totals Picks allow you to cheer for either a slugfest at the ballpark or a great pitching battle. Everybody loves the longball and cheering for an Over is much more fun but that doesn’t prevent our experts from playing the Under in our Free MLB Picks page and look for strikeouts. All selections featured in the MLB Over Under Totals Picks include betting analysis and tips on how to find the best markets. 

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