MLB Baseball Betting Week of July 10 Recap at Bovada
The All-Star Game took center stage in live betting last week at Bovada, and events surrounding the Midsummer Classic in Kansas City were the book's biggest win and loss of the week.
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The annual Home Run Derby took place last Monday night and provided bettors with their top win of the week in baseball betting. Detroit Tigers first baseman Prince Fielder won the Derby to join Ken Griffey Jr. (a three-time winner) as the only players to win multiple titles. Fielder, the 2009 winner in St. Louis while with the Milwaukee Brewers, had a total of 28 home runs over three rounds and beat Toronto's Jose Bautista 12-7 in the final.
Fielder, Bautista and Yankees second baseman Robinson Cano, the defending champion, closed as the 15/4 co-favorites to win the Derby and the book's worst possible result of any player in the field was for Fielder to win. That's because he took 22 percent of all the action, the most of any contestant - Cano was second with around 20 percent. In addition, bettors cleaned up on which league the Derby winner would come from with 75 percent of the action on the American League at -215. The book's top result would have been the Dodgers' Matt Kemp at 15/2 to win as he took the least action of any player. Not a big surprise considering he hadn't played in a game since May 30 due to a hamstring injury.
So while the Derby was a loss for the book, the All-Star Game itself was a good result. The National League roughed up Detroit ace Justin Verlander in a five-run first inning and won 8-0, the NL's most lopsided All-Star victory ever. San Francisco's Pablo Sandoval hit the first bases-loaded triple in All-Star history off Verlander, while teammate Melky Cabrera singled and scored the first run, then hit a two-run homer against the Rangers' Matt Harrison in a three-run fourth. Thus the NL team will have home-field advantage in the World Series again.
The AL went off as the -153 home favorite and took approximately 72 percent of the action on the moneyline. At minus-1.5 on the run line (+135), the Junior Circuit took almost 90 percent of the lean. Even the total was a win for the book, with 62 percent of the lean on over 8.5 runs. Cabrera winning MVP honors also was a good result as he took nominal action.
The top MLB series result last week, with the only action coming on the weekend, was on the Giants at -300 sweeping the Houston Astros (+240). The book's top series result was on the Padres at +185 taking two of three at the L.A. Dodgers (-225).
Early-Week Live Betting Action
Speaking of those Dodgers, their home games Tuesday and Wednesday against the Philadelphia Phillies will have live play-by-play betting at the book. Tuesday's game features the return of Phillies ace Roy Halladay, the co-favorite to win the NL Cy Young Award along with L.A.'s Clayton Kershaw (who pitches Wednesday) back in the spring. Halladay has been on the disabled list since May 28 with a right lat strain.
The two-time Cy Young Award winner and three-time 20-game winner is 4-5 with a 3.98 ERA in 11 starts this season. This will be the first time in 2012 that the Phillies will have Halladay, second baseman Chase Utley and first baseman Ryan Howard all on the active roster.
The Phillies are looking for their first road series win since June 12-14 at Minnesota. Philadelphia, the preseason World Series favorites at the book, is now down to 40/1 to win it all. It is in last in the NL East, 14 games behind Washington entering Monday's action. The Phillies are also 11 games out of the second wild-card spot in the National League amid rumors the team could trade pitcher Cole Hamels before the July 31 deadline.
One team no doubt interested in Hamels is the New York Yankees, and their game Tuesday vs. Toronto, which is reportedly heavily engaged in talks to acquire the Cubs' Matt Garza, also will feature live play-by-play betting. The Yanks, with the best record in baseball, remain 9/2 favorites at the book to win the World Series.
Meanwhile, the Mets will be offered on live betting Wednesday when they face the Washington Nationals. In the past three seasons, New York has a tendency to struggle after the All-Star Break and that looks like it could happen again after the Mets were swept in Atlanta over the weekend. From 2009-11, the Mets played .511 baseball before the All-Star Break but .409 after it - that's the third-worst post-break winning percentage in MLB.
Check back Thursday for a weekend live betting preview at the book.
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