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Updated AL MVP Odds
Can Mike Trout Contend for the AL MVP?

When you glance at the MLB futures market in the spring, one of the easiest bets for most casual betting fans to make is Mike Trout as the American League MVP. But betting on the two-time MVP to win his third honor this year is a stretch at this point in the season. There’s no questioning that he’s the best player in the world, but he’s not having the “best 2017 season”, which is what the award is actually about.

We make this argument in the NBA all the time with LeBron James. Make no mistake – Trout is on that level in baseball terms. He’s the only athlete that could take the mantle of Best Player Ever from Barry Bonds.

The truth is that if Trout hadn’t missed a massive section of the 2017 season due to injury, he’d probably be the favorite to win the AL MVP. Trout’s slugging percentage is in a slash line that reads .343/.463/.703. That’s clinically insane.

But as the MLB Futures market will tell you, the AL MVP race is down to two horses.

Jose Altuve is far from a house hold name, but he very well should be. The second-baseman for the Houston Astros has been an anchor for the team’s offensive metrics over the last two seasons. He finished 3rd in 2016 AL MVP voting. He’s always been on the radar of the pollsters, ranking 10th in this vote in 2015 and 13th in 2014.

American League MVP Market at
Jose Altuve (HOU) -225
Aaron Judge (NYY) +200
Mike Trout (LAA) +1200
George Springer (HOU) +5000
Mookie Betts (BOS) +6600

He’s also the odds on favorite at for good reason. His slash line of .364/.424/.570 is complimented by an OPS of 176. Altuve has been the best player on the best team in the American League all season long, and consistency counts in this vote. One of the fun facts about Altuve, and why baseball purists are in love with him, is because he almost never strikes out.

The case for Altuve is pretty rock solid.

Aaron Judge is the second choice in the market for the American League MVP for very, very good reason. He’s the no-brainer for the Rookie of the Year and plays on the Yankees, so his name is always going to be in the press. One of the factors for Judge is that he also leads the American League in home runs, walks, runs and OBP. He also techinically leads the lead in slugging because he’s played more games than Mike Trout.

Typically, pollsters like to spread the awards around. It takes an historic season for a player to take home multiple awards, like when Justin Verlander won the 2011 Cy Young and the AL MVP. Judge is having a spectacular year but the Rookie of the Year award is more than enough to dignify his incredible campaign.

I’m as big of a Trout fan as anyone, but chasing him to win the AL MVP at +1200 is throwing money away. Altuve is still a profitable play even at -225 so you should probably get in on this before this number begins to slide away. It’s not like he just had one of the most impressive months in MLB history.

Oh wait…yes he did. Altuve finished July with a .485 batting average.

What are you waiting for? Get to the MLB futures and bet on Jose Altuve!

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