Will Stanton be dealt?
August 16, 2017
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Giancarlo Stanton is scintillating. He is an absolute beast, and very much looks the part of the player who signed the game’s most lucrative contract a couple seasons ago.
He’s hitting .302 in the second half of the season with a 1.262 OPS and 17 home runs in 29 games. In the month of August, he’s already hit 10 homers in 13 games and has a .367 average. Given the historic pace, there’s now question whether he can take a shot at Roger Maris’s untainted single-season home run record of 61.
Of course, Barry Bonds, Mark McGwire and Sammy Sosa each eclipsed the mark, but with a steroid cloud around each of them, Stanton reaching 62 homers would still be rather significant. Right now, Stanton has hit 43 homers in his team’s first 117 games, leaving him 19 shy of breaking Maris’s mark.
Of all the players with at least 35 homers through his team’s first 117 games, only 11.4 percent of them went on to hit at least 20 homers in the team’s final 46 games. Granted, Stanton has taken one deep in six straight, 11 of 12 and 23 of his last 35 outings.
We are now at the point where it’s nearly expected that he’ll hit a home run. In fact, is even putting up nightly odds on him hitting a longball. Here are yesterday’s odds, and the bettors that laid the heavy “No” juice got burned.
Will Giancarlo Stanton hit a home run on August 15, 2017?
That’s about as balanced as you’ll see for any odds a single player will hit a home run on any given night. And BookMaker.eu has reposted the prop for Wednesday’s matinee where Stanton will square off against righty Matt Cain.
Stanton’s hot hitting has not silenced the trade rumors. Instead, the 27-year old slugger just cleared revocable waivers, allowing him to be dealt to any of the other 29 teams.
The Marlins committed a ton of money to Stanton a few years ago, and they still have 10 years and $295 million remaining on the contract after this year. That’s a huge hindrance for any team looking to add the slugger. In fact, only a handful of squads could even afford to take on a significant enough portion of that enormous contract to get Miami to consider moving him.
It is a huge longshot that the right-fielder will go anywhere considering all the business side of things, but the Marlins may be hoping to sell high on the oft-injured slugger in the midst of a great, injury-free year.
Right now, Stanton leads the Majors in home runs with 43 and is behind just Nolan Arenado and Nelson Cruz in RBIs with 95. His .640 slugging percentage also leads baseball.
While Stanton would certainly help any organization in the postseason picture, the odds he will move remain miniscule. BookMaker.eu also posted odds on that possibility, and the oddsmakers don’t like his chances of being dealt.
Will Giancarlo Stanton be traded before September 1, 2017?
While the baseball side of things is a slam dunk, the business end complicates things far too much for him to move. Among other things, Stanton has a no-trade clause that he must waive to go to most teams. Because of that, it’ll prove hard to find a team that’s able to absorb the salary of Stanton and convince him to waive his no-trade rights.
Besides, finding a team willing and able to take on a large chunk of the money, to move Stanton the Marlins will also require a huge haul in terms of prospects and/or young Major League talent. Typically, teams are willing to add payroll or deal top prospects, not both.
Of course, the last little wrinkle complicating matters is the impending sale of the Marlins. Jeffrey Loria’s ownership comes to an end during the offseason and moving the face of the franchise --even if it does clear a ton of money -- could be a complicated thing with approval needed from both Loria and the incoming ownership group.
Given the odds, it may make sense to throw a few dollars on the long odds in hopes of striking big, but for now, the idea of Stanton moving on is more sports radio fodder than it is something with a legitimate chance of materializing.
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