Stanton vs. Judge Props
February 12, 2018
While there’s been a handful of terrific moves in the off-season already, namely the Chicago Cubs shipping in Yu Darvish to the tune of $137 million over 6 years, the biggest acquisition in the majors happened months ago. I’d hate to dig up a sore spot with everyone who isn’t a Yankees fan, but Giancarlo Stanton and Aaron Judge are going to wreak havoc on the American League.
As it goes with huge public teams, the New York Yankees are +500 to win the World Series and lead that market ahead of the Houston Astros at +600 and the Washington Nationals, who are the third favorite at +800 despite serving as everyone’s favorite, perennial meltdown team of the playoffs.
But this isn’t just about tossing money in the World Series futures. I mean you can, but it’s still way too early to be doing that. However, if you dig around in our MLB Specials section, you’ll find a fun little board that centers solely on the production of Judge-Stanton.
Here’s a breakdown of what that market looks like.
Most Home Runs – Stanton -160 / Judge +140
Stanton murdered the league last year with 59 home runs while Judge was the American League leader with 52 of his own during one of the most exciting rookie seasons of all time. While Stanton’s transition to the AL will come with certain issues, he’s still got one of the best hand-eye hitters in the world and his home run rate is astonishingly productive.
The major concern for Stanton is that he played in his first full season just last year despite seven seasons of experience. His 159 games played during 2017 was the highest in his career, followed by 150 in 2011 and 145 in 2014. Injuries follow this guy around, which is the only reason you’re betting against him.
Judge came out of nowhere to become an overnight sensation and pitchers may be better prepared for him heading in to 2018. That’s the biggest hiccup here. But he’s younger by three years and certainly has the size at 6-foot-7 and a daunting 280 pounds to bash more dingers than his new teammate.
Fact is, Judge is the younger stud in this race and I’m just not sure how Stanton’s body holds up over the course of the next year. The 2017 smash-a-thon between the two was an outlier for both and is technically supposed to regress. If there’s any room for improvement, and less worry for injury, it’s with Judge.
Most Strikeouts – Stanton +290 / Judge -350
This one seems pretty straightforward considering that Judge led the whole universe in strikeouts last year. It’s an interesting tactic to let that young, tower of muscle just swing away given that his production is momentum changing should he connect. Stanton is much more tactical at the plate, and has the patience of the guy who’s been in the league for a while. Judge makes more sense overall and you have to pay to get these -350 odds, but they’ll deliver in September.
TOTAL Strikeouts for Stanton and Judge – O/U 327.5 (-115)
Judge managed 542 plate appearances over 155 games and struck out a whopping 208 times. By contrast, Stanton made it to the plate 597 times over 159 games played and whiffed just 163 times. That’s 271 total strike outs if you failed second grade math. So why the increased total? Well for one, Stanton will be batting in a tougher pitching league (DON’T YELL AT ME NL PURISTS) and who knows with Judge.
He has to get better, right? I love the UNDER here. Teams will be scared of the pair, especially with a talented lineup surrounding them. There will be lots of walks, lots of dingers and more tact on the part of Judge. That is a massive strike-out total for both of them. It’s way too high to be honest.
TOTAL Combined Home-Runs for Stanton and Judge – O/U 87.5
Why would you even bet the UNDER here?! Do you hate fun???
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