Rockies dig the Road
May 15, 2018
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Scramble The Rockies This Week
In our never ending search to paint the MLB betting season with a broad brush, we present the Colorado Rockies, the team that almost everyone forgets exists. That’s fair. They haven’t really done much since losing the World Series in 2007. In fact, they haven’t won a playoff series since.
That’s probably not going to change anytime soon. The Rockies are pretty distant +1200 contenders for the NL Pennant, and +450 to claim a division that’s stacked with the Diamondbacks, Dodgers and dangerous Giants. It’s difficult to assess their long term value because they don’t do anything in particular all that well.
But this season they’ve been pretty great on the road, winning a solid 66-percent of the away games at 16-8. Steadying that flow of return will be a layup matchup against the pitiful San Diego Padres, where they’ll essentially be even money favorites on Tuesday night.
Next Games: at San Diego -101 (5/15), at San Francisco (5/17 – 5/20)
Now, we’ve been pretty spot on with the other teams we’ve spot lit. Most recently the Atlanta Braves were the “hot hand of the moment” and are paying hand over fist right now. That’s a train you shouldn’t get off. However, I’d understand if you were hesitant to punch your tickets with Colorado to take a scenic trip through the Rockies.
The view is hectic. Colorado has the 22nd ranked offence with 4.07 runs per game, which speaks volumes about how much pitchers are getting lit up this season. Colorado has a bunch of them, with a team ERA of just 4.35 (18th). It’s a very, very tough sell.
What’s remarkable is that this team just knows how to get their act together on the road. They’re 6-0 SU in their last six away from home and +839 on the moneyline during that run. That includes battering the Cubs, decimating the distraught Mets and beating up on the Padres. So a lot of it is just playing the matchups. Totally explainable.
Interestingly enough, the series against the Giants this week will pretty much be all-telling, but the Giants don’t offer much in return as a stable betting entity. The Giants have been brutally incompetent in recent weeks, losing series against the Pirates and Phillies in pretty embarrassing fashion.
At the very least, San Francisco’s woes can be explained using the word “injury”. Madison Bumgarner, Johnny Cueto and Hunter Pence are all out of action and that makes the Giants an inescapably vulnerable bet-against team. They’re not that great at home to begin with, and cruising in at full steam is the Colorado Rockies.
This is the first meeting between these two teams and it will probably serve as a pretty big tell-all. Either we can start legitimately taking the Rockies a bit more seriously, or the Giants have the ability to rally after one of their most brutal road trips in recent memory. My money is on the former.
It’s not really worth overthinking why the Rockies are great when travelling, but the key is in that their starters are good enough to go deep when not limited by the wonky confines of Coors Field. Beyond that, the team’s offence relies on one thing and one thing only to win games – home runs. They hit a lot of dingers. They’re 4th in the league with 56 total.
What makes that stat rank even odder is that the Rockies have a terrible .711 OPS which is the 19th worst across the majors. They don’t generally do well against good teams, but you’ll have to excuse me if I don’t label the Giants as “good” this very moment. Don’t get salty with me for telling the truth, San Fran fans. You at least have the Warriors.
The Colorado Rockies just have one of those charming, “why the hell not” sort of streaks going on when on the road. I’m willing to ride it until it’s derailed…ya know, when they face the Dodgers in the valley starting next week. Until then, feel free to make some damn good money and hold those UNDERS.
This is the epitome of a grinders bet. If you’re betting on MLB daily lines to begin with, you have the stomach for it. It’s just good, cheap value. And like any good deal, it won’t be around forever. Nothing suggests that this streak is sustainable, so bet it while it’s on because soon it will be gone.
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